Cotton Bowl: Kansas State vs. Arkansas (-9.5) at 8:00 p.m.- O/U 63

[The Peoples Champ]

I'd like to just write that 90 PERCENT of the money is on the over in this contest, yet the total has dropped a point to 63 from it's opening 64. Maybe there isn't a lot of money tied up in this game yet, but that's staggering.

Anyways, it's not my style to just write a little bit, so away we go:

KSU Offense vs. Arkansas Defense:
I think if KSU has any chance to stay within the number in this contest, QB Collin Klein will have to be elusive out of the shotgun, and make some plays with his legs downfield, as Arkansas isn't fast enough to keep up with him consistently, and one thing I've happened to notice is, the guy breaks and runs out of his fair share of tackles. That's huge.
John Hubert can hit a hole and get through it in a hurry, and I'm starting to wonder if Arkansas will have trouble slowing down this team. It seems to me that both offenses' strengths are their opponents defensive weaknesses.
As for the passing game, I think Arkansas can be exploited in the secondary by going after Eric Bennet and Tramain Thomas after a couple runs when they are cheating up, and bust a play-action that sends Thompson and Harper deep on verticle or go routes, and let the below-average but sometimes alright Klein unleash one.
I'm also concerned about that same play-action getting blown up by a sack, as KSU has surrendered 36 of them this season, and undoubtedly they could have surrendered more had Klein not been so elusive.

Arkansas Offense vs. K-State Defense
Tyler Wilson also has some protection issues up front, but K-State sucks at getting to the QB, so that should be no problem for him.
K-State has 18 interceptions on the season, but they play a Cover-2 that can be exploited due to their safeties not being very good, so I expect Wilson to take plenty of shots down field Joe Adams and Jarius Wright, and I do expect both offenses to try and take a few shots early.

Final Word:
I have this one a lot closer to Kansas State than Arkansas in everything I look at, meaning I think it stays within the number for KSU, and I hope it keeps climbing. Arkansas may eventually become to much for KSU to handle speed wise, but I'm hoping Klein has built just enough of a lead at that point to make it safe. If you are in to teasers, I love a teaser of KSU +15.5 at this point, as it gets me over 10 and 14 just in case the spread doesn't make it there and heads down once BTB places a few wager limits, and that gives me 9 touchdowns to play with, something I feel pretty safe with. Not sure what I'm doing yet, though, so what is everyone else thinking?

[LineProjector]

First off, I'm a Razorback fan. So, as unbiased as I'll try to be in this write-up, just know that a little homerism still exists. I'll try to add to a little of the Arkansas information.

Arkansas has a fast, undersized defense. I don't think Arkansas will have a hard time 'keeping up' with Klein. The Hogs' downfall on defense is mainly fundamental. Missing tackles, being out of position, etc. So, I don't think Klein is going to be able to toast the Arkansas D, rather K-State's offense will definitely benefit from the Arkansas D making mistakes.

The secondary of the Hogs is suspect. I would like to clarify Tramain Thomas plays safety, not CB. Cornerback Tevin Mitchell is a true freshman, and has been exploited some this season. Teams have caused matchup problems with him, and Mitchell finds himself out of position on some plays, but then other plays he'll defend perfectly. His biggest downfall now is just inexperience.

The D-line has been abused this year, but mainly due to injuries to both defensive ends. Both of those guys are healthy now, so I don't see the d-line being as big of a concern.

The major weakness on offense is the OL. If Tyler Wilson has time, he'll pick Kansas State apart. If he's under pressure all day like he was against LSU and Alabama, then it will be a long day for Razorback fans.

Arkansas played well at home this year, but struggled on the road. Arkansas had to rely on second half comebacks against both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt on the road, and lost big to both Alabama and LSU on the road.

Arkansas has played one game in Arlington this year against Texas A&M. A&M jumped out to a big lead and Arkansas couldn't do much on offense or defense. Second half adjustments were made, and A&M choked away another second half lead.

Home record - 7-0
Away record - 2-2
Neutral site record - 1-0 (Arlington)

I will mention that Arkansas has not been good in bowls of late. Last year they lost in the Sugar Bowl to Ohio State, and the previous year was a struggle against East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl. This team hasn't changed much since those 2 bowls personnel wise, just more experience and a different QB.

Another thing to keep in mind is Arkansas lost it's Defensive Coordinator, Offensive Coordinator, and Special Teams coach all after the last game this year. So, this will be the first game for the new staff. Offensive Coordinator isn't as big of a concern, as Paul Petrino has worked under Bobby before at Arkansas.

I honestly see this game staying close, and it worries me. K-State runs the offense that will give Arkansas fits. A mobile quarterback and a ball controlling offense is the best defense against a Bobby Petrino team. I'm not going to bet the game, but would consider laying a little on K-State if the line got to +10.

Hopefully I've provided a little insight. If you have any Razorback related questions, I'll be lurking throughout the day.

[The Peoples Champ]

Great post, KB, thanks!

My question is, what would you look for from a live-betting perspective? If I was waiting until the end of 1Q or something like that, even halftime, what would I want to see Arkansas being able or not being able to do?

[louiemdj]

Just like most of the teams K-State has played this year, Arkansas should be able to blow them out with their high powered offense.

Bill Snyder has had plenty of time to get ready for this game which worries me. He is the better coach and he has been there before. I'm not sold on Petrino yet in big games. He's great as an offensive coach, and he has the weapons he needs as well. The problem is the defense. While it is much much improved and getting better, they still aren't where they need to be yet. They have given up way too many points to inferior teams all year long. If they want to take the next step, that will have to be fixed.

I look for Snyder to have a game plan to keep this game close, probably with some kind of ball control offense to keep Arkansas's offense off the field, and wear down the undersized "speed" defense.

I will most likely take the points with K-State tonight or stay away from this game. Hoping my local has it jacked up over 10.

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(01-06-2012 11:04 AM)The Peoples Champ Wrote:  Great post, KB, thanks!

My question is, what would you look for from a live-betting perspective? If I was waiting until the end of 1Q or something like that, even halftime, what would I want to see Arkansas being able or not being able to do?

Most of this year, they have either gotten out to a hot start or a slow start. If anything, you can bet on them being inconsistent.

[Beyond the Bets]

Kevin Haskin of the Topeka Capital-Journal wrote an excellent column yesterday that sort of sums up my thinking.

K-State has had a month to prepare (as has Arkansas), but I honestly, truly believe the Cats will take better advantage of their month. This is a team full of workers; of studiers; of disciplined guys who really, truly, genuinely love to play football.

Snyder has, in my opinion, the best preparation team he's probably ever fielded. Few, if any, elite talents. Just kids who like playing football.

From the column:

Quote:The approach taken by Bill Snyder will not change.

He will forever try to make his program just a little better every day. And only with players who accept that one fundamental principle.

Sure, the opportunity exists again to contact higher-profile recruits and perhaps get into their homes. The Powercat logo, part of the same uniform scheme the Wildcats will forever wear (sorry, Nike) for this particular coach, is recognizable again on many fronts.

And will be to an even greater extent if K-State were to upset Arkansas on Friday in Cowboys Stadium.

But it will not change the kind of player Snyder wants in his program. A player who often does not fit the pedigree other programs desire. A player who, because he is passed over, wants to work, wants to contribute, wants to prove people wrong.

“These guys on this team like to practice. I mean, practice!” K-State defensive coordinator Chris Cosh exclaimed. “These guys like ball. You have to kick them out of the office at night.”

Recently, Snyder conceded, somewhat alarmingly, that during his first go-round, he got caught up in the Wildcats’ success.

Not personally. The same public persona is still very much intact.

But the players Snyder tried to arm himself with were not the same. Instead, he sought recruits with flashier profiles. Any coach would have been inclined to do so.

But for Snyder it was a mistake. More stars alongside a prospect’s name meant more headaches. Either K-State got in the hunt, but finished second — which happens to be last in any recruiting battle — or it landed the rare blue chip and he didn’t produce.

In a system where the same work requirements are demanded of each player, plums often rot.

Snyder learned the hard way, and now, to borrow one of his lines, he sticks to his knittin’.

“I never recruit any of those guys,” he said. “I don’t want us to waste our time and energy.”

[LineProjector]

(01-06-2012 11:04 AM)The Peoples Champ Wrote:  Great post, KB, thanks!

My question is, what would you look for from a live-betting perspective? If I was waiting until the end of 1Q or something like that, even halftime, what would I want to see Arkansas being able or not being able to do?

Arkansas has trailed early on in quite a few games this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Arkansas defense come out sluggish and allow a couple of scores. The offense is rhythm and tempo based. With a month off, they could start out a little rusty.

With that said, their might be some value early on in the Arkansas ML. Especially if Arkansas is down a couple of scores in the first quarter. You could set yourself up for a potential middle if you already had k state +9.5

[BobMac]

K State has been good to me all year, so I'll roll with them one last time.

[patswin]

i think the dog is live tonight also

[bwaters81]

Arkansas has had trouble all year getting started away from home. Also, in both bowl games in the Petrino era have struggled. They won in OT 2 years ago in the Liberty Bowl against East Carolina, then mounted a big 2nd half Sugar Bowl comeback agianst Ohio State in a game they should have won if not for a failed punt block scoop and score and then a Ryan Mallett interception with under 2 minutes left inside the red zone.

I see no reason after a month off that the offense should be any crisper coming out of the gate. I expect Kansas State to hang around early or even go up a couple of scores. They will move the ball between the 20's on the Hogs but, I think they will struggle to score many touchdowns. That won't work against the 13th ranked passing attack of the Hogs(KState passing D is 135th in the country).

There should be some nice value for you in-game bettors on Arkansas. They've been a completely different team in the 2nd half of most games, so don't get caught up in how horrible they look if indeed plays out this way. I expect Arkansas to figure out how to contain Klein as the game wears on and will put up a standard 2nd half offensive show and win by 2 td's.

Some other stats of note:
Kansas St Redzone Offense - 21st
Arkansas Redzone Offense - 28th
Arkansas Redzone Defense - 12th
Kansas St Redzone Defense - 85th
Arkansas 3rd Down Defense - 35th
Kansas St. 3rd Down Defense - 57th

[The Peoples Champ]

Anyone peak at the total on this one? Liked the under all along, just because of going against such a high number of people on the total, especially the way this season has gone, but anyone have any good lean one way or the other?

[Beyond the Bets]

You could put a gun to my head and tell me to bet the under and I'd refuse. It can't be justified. Not when you consider how poorly K-State's D has played against similarly explosive teams (Oklahoma and Oklahoma State).

That said, I think K-State's ability to sustain drives — especially early — will dictate how this game is played. For a game to go under 63, it only takes a few long drives. If K-State puts together one of its classic 8-minute drives, why not? They'll play conservatively (bend but don't break) and try to come up with a few timely turnovers.

Again, I lean over — but won't be playing the total.

[JayPrimetown]

Playing the K State ML... and will look to trade out if necessary.

[Beyond the Bets]

Good luck. Hope for a first-drive TD.

[The Cosmic Kid]

As a K-State fan, I am not too worried about Arkansas' offense. K-State has already played Oklahoma State (lost by 7 with a chance to tie at the end), Baylor (won by 1), Texas A&M (won in four OTs), Texas Tech (won on the road) and OU (irrelevant). K-State will limit Arkansas' possessions by managing the clock. Not too sure what to think of Arkansas' defense with the new D Coordinator, so that will be an X factor. Snyder and K-State have found ways to defeat teams with many different styles and have left many teams wondering how they lost. I agree with BTB that the time off will benefit K-State more than Arkansas as it will give Snyder more time to prepare and QB Klein more time to heal (I bet we see more of a passing game from him). K-State has only lost one game by more than a touchdown and has won SU as an underdog SIX times this season. Sharps and wise guys still haven't caught on because coaching > talent in games with K-State. I think K-State has a chance to win outright and +9.5 should be plenty.

I've heard reports that K-State fans will outnumber Arkansas fans 2-to-1 and everyone in Manhattan has been going crazy about this game. I think Arkansas will underestimate what they're up against.

[bwaters81]

(01-06-2012 05:59 PM)The Cosmic Kid Wrote:  I've heard reports that K-State fans will outnumber Arkansas fans 2-to-1 and everyone in Manhattan has been going crazy about this game. I think Arkansas will underestimate what they're up against.

No offense but, I suspect neither of these are true.

Dallas is practically where most Arkansas graduates end up after college and is a home away from home for the Razorbacks. And, no way Arkansas takes KState lightly after the trouble they've had in the previous two bowl games.

[Jaeger62]

Playing a teaser-

KSU +16
Over 59

[The Cosmic Kid]

(01-06-2012 06:11 PM)bwaters81 Wrote:  

(01-06-2012 05:59 PM)The Cosmic Kid Wrote:  I've heard reports that K-State fans will outnumber Arkansas fans 2-to-1 and everyone in Manhattan has been going crazy about this game. I think Arkansas will underestimate what they're up against.

No offense but, I suspect neither of these are true.

Dallas is practically where most Arkansas graduates end up after college and is a home away from home for the Razorbacks. And, no way Arkansas takes KState lightly after the trouble they've had in the previous two bowl games.

Yeah. I'm not sure I believe it either. K-State did have an estimated 23,000 at a pep rally yesterday, so I'll assume about 35,000 or half of the stadium will be K-State fans. Not sure how Cowboys season ticket holders will cheer, but my gut says Big 12.

[GrandaddyCrunk]

Under all day.

[The Cosmic Kid]

(01-06-2012 06:33 PM)The Cosmic Kid Wrote:  

(01-06-2012 06:11 PM)bwaters81 Wrote:  

(01-06-2012 05:59 PM)The Cosmic Kid Wrote:  I've heard reports that K-State fans will outnumber Arkansas fans 2-to-1 and everyone in Manhattan has been going crazy about this game. I think Arkansas will underestimate what they're up against.

No offense but, I suspect neither of these are true.

Dallas is practically where most Arkansas graduates end up after college and is a home away from home for the Razorbacks. And, no way Arkansas takes KState lightly after the trouble they've had in the previous two bowl games.

Yeah. I'm not sure I believe it either. K-State did have an estimated 23,000 at a pep rally yesterday, so I'll assume about 35,000 or half of the stadium will be K-State fans. Not sure how Cowboys season ticket holders will cheer, but my gut says Big 12.

Even if this is true, it's probably irrelevant.

BTW, lol at me trying to be insidery.

[LineProjector]

Razorback RB Knile Davis is participating in pre-game drills. Davis hasn't played all year due to a broken ankle before the season. A couple of weeks ago he said he probably wouldn't play in the Cotton Bowl, but is dressed out and doing pre-game drills for the first time all season. Davis was the leading rusher in the SEC last year. Take this for what it's worth.

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(01-06-2012 07:35 PM)thekbutler Wrote:  Razorback RB Knile Davis is participating in pre-game drills. Davis hasn't played all year due to a broken ankle before the season. A couple of weeks ago he said he probably wouldn't play in the Cotton Bowl, but is dressed out and doing pre-game drills for the first time all season. Davis was the leading rusher in the SEC last year. Take this for what it's worth.

I don't he plays, but...

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...t/16755856