College football Week 1 experts picks

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-01-2011 09:31 PM)KJ_in_OK Wrote:  Matchup: LA Lafayette v Okie St (-38)
The play: No Play
Outcome: Cowboys 51 v Cajun's 17

Too much uncertainty leading into this game to feel comfortable releasing a play. I really want to let you know when I have a serious play regarding Ok St. Cowboys have had tremendous turnover at defense and at the OC position. They have a high powered offense lead by Brandon Weedon and Biletnikoff winner Justin Blackmonwith a great Offensive line with solid special teams and a defense that according to reports looks like it may end up average. Regarding Lafayette new HC who is hiding a lot of what they intend to do with their offense. Oklahoma State scored plenty on LaL's Defense in the second half last year when these two teams played.

Too much of a crap shoot with a line like that, I can't in endorse either side.

Good Luck this weekend

For contest purposes, a play must be made. Of course, you don't have to participate, but just in case ...

[kreatture]

(09-01-2011 10:41 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  For contest purposes, a play must be made. Of course, you don't have to participate, but just in case ...

It's easy for me to say this, not being an expert of a college team, but I think every Expert should be made to pick a Side. That kinda defines the term "Expert", imo..

[RyanParrill]

(09-01-2011 10:53 PM)Mr Lucky Wrote:  

(09-01-2011 10:41 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  For contest purposes, a play must be made. Of course, you don't have to participate, but just in case ...

It's easy for me to say this, not being an expert of a college team, but I think every Expert should be made to pick a Side. That kinda defines the term "Expert", imo..

I believe his score indicates the side he's choosing for contest purposes

[Beyond the Bets]

Yep, that's correct. Stupid me.

[MMGambler]

Matchup: Buffalo Bulls at Pittsburgh Panthers (-30.5)

The Pitt Panthers are in a “transition” year with new coach Todd Graham taking over for Dave Wannstedt. However, there is no reason why Pitt can’t compete for a Conference title in the weak Big East. The Panthers get a layup in their first game against a Buff State team that was 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS in 2010 and we don’t expect them to be much better in 2011. The question is whether Pitt can cover the -30.5 points in their home opener. It’s always a risk laying this many points but I think we get a bit of an edge with the Panthers in this one. New coach Todd Graham is implementing his “High Octane” offense meaning they will be getting in a lot more plays and they will be throwing the ball around. This should suit returning QB Tino Sunseri just fine. Sunseri has looked comfortable in practices and went for over 400 yards in poor conditions during the spring scrimmage. Since there are no exhibition games in college and since this is a new system, Graham will more than likely leave his starters in much longer than normal if the score gets out of reach, which is important when you are trying to cover such a big number. On the other side of the ball, the Bulls return 9 starters from the country’s WORST offense in 2010. They will struggle to score against a solid Panthers defense. On defense the Bulls were respectable in 2010 but they are losing many of their key pieces and only 2 starters return. They will have trouble stopping Sunseri and the Pitt offense.

This isn’t a game I would be wagering serious money on, but if you have to pick a side I would lay the -30.5 points at home with the Pitt Panthers.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 41-6

@MMGambler on twitter

[KPL10]

The Matchup: Ball State @ Indiana

Although this is technically a "home game" for IU, the game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, home of the Colts.

New Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson is less than 48 hours away from his debut as the Hoosiers head man. Wilson was most recently the offensive coordinator under Bob Stoops at Oklahoma.

Not surprisingly, the Hoosiers enter the season with a few questions marks. Certainly the biggest question is one coach Wilson has dealt with for the past few weeks - who will get the start under center? The Hoosiers have yet to name a starting quarterback, which is a big reason why the Hoosiers are just a 6.5 point favorite. Losing the likes of former starters Ben Chappell (QB - graduation), Tandon Doss (WR - NFL) and Darius Willis (rehabbing knee injury) doesn't help either.

However, the less powerful Ball State offense enters the season with similar questions to answer. While they have named a starting QB, Keith Wenning's job is not secure, and last years leading rusher, Eric Williams, left the school in the offseason.

On the other side of the ball, the Hoosiers return a more matured defense that could and should be the key to Indiana winning this contest. The size and experience give the Hoosiers the edge on defense, and ultimately in this contest.

The Pick: Indiana - 6
Prediction: Indiana - 24 Ball State - 13

[SkyBlues42]

Spread: Oregon -3.5
Over/Under: 54.5

Oregon begins its season with another match-up against a SEC powerhouse, LSU, after losing to Auburn in the BCS Championship game last year.

A major concern heading into this game, is the inexperience of the Ducks offensive line. Failure to control the line of scrimmage has cost Oregon some big games in the past, including last year's BCS title game.

With the size and speed of LSU's front seven, Oregon's OL could be in for a long day.

Also worth mentioning is the suspension of CB Cliff Harris and LB Kiko Alonso. Although Kiko's absence from the game is not official, Chip Kelly is likely to keep him out. Losing two of their anchors on the defensive side of the ball is no easy task to overcome, especially in season opener with title implications on the line.

Lucky for them, LSU will be without QB Jordan Jefferson and WR Russell Sheppard. The Tigers will have to rely on the legs of HB Spencer Ware to carry them on Saturday.

--Pick: LSU +3.5; Under 54.5-- This is a tough line, but I think Oregon wins the game by a field goal or less, and fails to cover the spread. LSU's defense should keep them competitive, but all it'll take is one big play from LaMichael James or Darron Thomas to win this game.

Final Score: Oregon 26, LSU 24

[Stangrider]

Matchup SMU vs TA&M
Line: +15 O/U 56

Ok eventhough there's all this other hoopla going on about A&M leaving the Big 12 and SMU taking their place, what's going to matter on Sunday's game is who wins. While A&M is considered the best team because of their offense and a lot more seniors returning this year but they have some weakness on defense, that's where Kyle Padron can take over and dominate I really believe this kid is the answer for the Mustangs the numbers he put up last year where great 3,828 passing yards 31 TDs and 14interceptions. This would be by far be the biggest win for Coach Jones since he's only beat one team from a big-six conference. now the numbers game which are SMU last year was 6-5-1 ATS one of them was against Texas tech which I feell is what this game will play out like. while I won't go George W. Bush and say they will win outright by a field goal. I will say that they keep it close and if they lose it will be by a touchdown. so take the 14 points and drive this won home. (i really just wanted use that smiley excuse the cheesiness)

SMU 28 A&M 35

[WhaleDog]

Matchup: Oregon v. LSU
The Pick: LSU (+3.5)
Final Score: OREGON 27 LSU 26

A little bar scuffle was the best thing that could happen for those looking to put their chips behind LSU in this huge season opener. The move from Jordan Jefferson to Jarrett Lee is not a major downgrade for the Tigers (although it is a slight one), as Lee has proven that he can win big games at the helm, and Jefferson has never proven that he can be a solid decision maker. The bigger loss for LSU is wideout Russell Sheppard, but that is at least partially offset by Oregon's loss of Cliff Harris on the corner. Despite significant losses to graduation, LSU's defense will once again be outstanding and should present a challenge for Oregon's prolific offense. I expect them to be able to force Darron Thomas to make enough mistakes to keep them in the game right down to the wire.

In addition, despite the fact that Les Miles has been often questioned, the Tiger coach always has his team ready for big out of conference games. On the other hand, while Oregon has dominated Pac Ten opponents, they have been unable to pull out wins in non-conference games against Top 10 competition (see Auburn last year and Ohio St. and Boise St. in 2009). To me, this game goes down to the wire, so grab the 3 1/2 points...

[Screech99]

Interesting. Both experts pick Oregon in a close one. Anyone have predictions for which way this line will move as we get closer to kickoff tomorrow? I'd guess it sways toward Oregon a little bit, but I could be wrong.

[patrickjbyrne]

Matchup: Northern Illinois vs. Army
Spread: NIU -11
Total O/U: 54.5

NIU kicks off a season looking to improve on last year in which they spent time in the polls. Usually a successful mid major loses a ton of talent. For NIU that is the case on only one side of the ball. NIU loses only leading rusher Chad Spann from a crowded and often used deep backfield. Dual threat Chandler Harnish is back at QB. Most importantly this team returns all 5 starters on a line that is ranked in the top 10 in the country.

A lot was lost on defense and at all positions but this was a defense that used a lot of rotation and was very deep and talented. Reports from camp have been very positive as new HC Doernen is a defensive guy and has the team flying.

Army made a bowl game last year on a lot of close games to bad teams and as most service academies are was Sr. dominated.

Expect scores early and often for NIU. I like the line a lot here.

NIU 48
Army 20

[Skating Tripods]

Game: South Carolina v. East Carolina
Venue: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
Weather: Hot, isolated storm chance (30%) around kickoff, calm winds.

Open: -13 (BetOnline); -20 (LV Hilton)
Current: -20.5 or -21

Steve Spurrier's mind games have already begun as he announced earlier this week that Connor Shaw would start over much maligned senior QB Stephen Garcia. Not of any concern is who will start at RB with Marcus Lattimore ready to build off his 2010 campaign in which he was the National Freshman of the Year.

Alshon Jeffery returns for the Gamecocks as the unquestioned number one WR. The Gamecocks will need someone to step up and be the second go-to guy in the offense as both Tori Gurley and TE Wesley Saunders moved on in their careers.

The East Carolina Pirates return their QB and top WR, Lance Lewis, but will be operating with an offensive line featuring just 27 career starts. This will be an area of concern for ECU in a game where South Carolina will keep fresh by rotating lots of guys in to the game defensively. The football world will get it's first look at Jadeveon Clowney, the #1 high school recruit who will suit up for his first game with the Gamecocks.

ECU has to replace its top two runners from last season and top two tacklers. Doing that against South Carolina will not be a fun task. Last year, against two major conference schools (VA Tech and UNC), the Pirates lost by a combined 91-44 and this year's team is not as talented.

Pick: South Carolina minus the points, whatever it may be by kickoff. Carolina's too deep and too talented for the Pirates to handle. They may score their points, but keeping South Carolina off the board won't be easy. Look for USC to run the ball down the ECU 3-4 defense's throat and when the DBs pinch in to help, Spurrier will go over the top and try to find his Jeffery complement.

South Carolina 49 ECU 20

[AmidstTheCrowd]

USF vs. Notre Dame

It's been nearly 18 years since Skip Holtz last stepped foot in Notre Dame stadium and tomorrow he'll hope to leave in a better mood than he did in Notre Dame's infamous collapse to Boston College in 1993 to end an undefeated season and potential title run. Holtz is aiming to become only the third Notre Dame graduate ever to lead an opposing team to victory against his alma mater.

I put a high value on returning starters in early season match-ups and Notre Dame has 22 kids returning that started 3 or more games last year while USF has 11. However the Bulls are led by a dynamic playmaker as their signal caller in BJ Daniels who Bryan Kelly has vocalized some concerns about in press addresses leading up to tomorrow's meeting.

Expect to see some solid defensive football with USF having allowed 20.0 points or less for five of the last six seasons. While Notre Dame, a perennial running gag for defensive gaffes and misfortune during the Charlie Weis regime, will be a much improved unit. The Irish also have a significant size advantage on the defensive side, notably in the front seven led by potential All-American and first round draft choice Manti Teo.

Taking USF and the points in the first half is probably a solid play. I think you'll see a tightly contested first half with some Notre Dame fans on edge heading into the break. However, the front seven of Notre Dame will gradually wear down the inexperienced offensive line of the Bulls which in turn will limit BJ Daniels' play making abilities and the Bulls' upset bid.

Notre Dame -11

Notre Dame 28 - USF 13

[ChiefZilla]

(09-02-2011 06:21 PM)patrickjbyrne Wrote:  Matchup: Northern Illinois vs. Army
Spread: NIU -11
Total O/U: 54.5

NIU kicks off a season looking to improve on last year in which they spent time in the polls. Usually a successful mid major loses a ton of talent. For NIU that is the case on only one side of the ball. NIU loses only leading rusher Chad Spann from a crowded and often used deep backfield. Dual threat Chandler Harnish is back at QB. Most importantly this team returns all 5 starters on a line that is ranked in the top 10 in the country.

A lot was lost on defense and at all positions but this was a defense that used a lot of rotation and was very deep and talented. Reports from camp have been very positive as new HC Doernen is a defensive guy and has the team flying.

Army made a bowl game last year on a lot of close games to bad teams and as most service academies are was Sr. dominated.

Expect scores early and often for NIU. I like the line a lot here.

NIU 48
Army 20

I have to say, this seems like the most decisive pick from any expert so far. You really that confident, Patrick? (I'll admit that I don't know much about either of these teams, but I loved the Doeren hire.)

[TheBrick]

Game: Boston College vs. Northwestern
Venue: Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Weather: Hazy and Humid, high in the low 80's, light winds 10 mph

Line: Boston College -3.5
Total: 45

So, I've received the toughest game to read in week 1 of the college football season. Pat Fitzgerald has been playing mind games with the status of Dan Persa being up in the air all week. But, I'm going to count on Vegas to let me know who is playing and who is not. This game was off the board from late Weds until Friday ... why? Because Vegas wasn't sure if Persa was playing either. When it reopened, it went from BC at -3 to BC -4, it was then bet down to -3.5, where it currently sits. About a week ago, BC was at -2.5, but that didn't last for more than a few minutes. What does this tell me? It tells me that sharps wanted to buy both sides are the 3, and attempt to get a middle. Which is a great idea, especially in a game like this, which will be tight.

I have it from a credible Chicago source that sophomore backup QB Kain Colter is the real deal, and has vastly improved from last season. That sounds familiar to me, as BC has a sophomore starting QB Chase Rettig who has really improved in the spring according to just about everyone who has seen him. Based upon reputation, everyone expects BC to play a very conservative game, where they pound out 4 yards at a time, and try to win with their defense. Problem with that is the defense is not as good as it has been in the past, the defensive line has been overhauled in the last 2 seasons, and the secondary is a mess. Both starting safeties have left the program, one dismissed and one transferred, in the last 10 days. BC's best CB, senior Donnie Fletcher is doubtful with a back injury he suffered in the last scrimmage. This spells trouble for the Eagles defense.

I don't expect Persa to play much, less than half the snaps, but I expect Colter to step in and produce. Watch out for WR Jeremy Ebert in the slot for the Wildcats, expect a big game out of him against this thinned out secondary. What I also expect is a big day from the BC offense. Northwestern is notoriously bad against the run, and if they pack the box trying to limit the BC running game, Rettig is now more than capable of finding the receivers downfield. My best play for this game is actually OVER the 45 points. But since I have to choose a side for this contest, I'm going to side with the sharps, and I'll be on the right side of the infamous 3 number. I'll take the 3.5 and Northwestern, it is the side with value.

Pick:
Boston College 30 Northwestern 27

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-03-2011 12:02 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  I have to say, this seems like the most decisive pick from any expert so far. You really that confident, Patrick? (I'll admit that I don't know much about either of these teams, but I loved the Doeren hire.)

I bet Northern Illinois at Mirage tonight.

[inlikeflinn]

Alright, so this is late, but as they say….

Game: Utah State vs. Auburn
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium (Auburn, AL)
Line: Auburn -23
Total: 57

My expectations are that the Tigers will have little difficulty running the football on the Aggies. While Auburn will be operating with a largely inexperienced line, Utah State will be sovermatched at the point of attack. I do like what I’ve read about Utah State’s linebacking corps and they could create problems for Auburn in obvious passing situations. I look for the Tigers to utilize the size advantage and pound the ball early to set up the short to intermediate passing game.

Utah State has a veteran offensive line (returning 4 starters) and return most of their skill position players (though RB Turbin was out most of last year with a torn ACL) with the exception of their quarterback. Ted Roof’s defenses at Auburn have struggled with tackling in space, so I expect Utah State to take advantage of their experience receivers and test Auburn’s defense on the outside and across the middle.

One note when it comes to handicapping, Gus Malzahn has emphasized through the summer camp that the offense will be more up tempo than last year so expect something close to 90 plays for the offense. Additionally, with serious tests coming in the next few weeks (home for Mississippi State and at Clemson), the Tigers need to get in synch on offense. I’m guessing the starters stay in this game until at least half way through the first quarter unless it’s a complete no contest.

So where does that leave us? I’ll go Auburn 38, Utah State 17

The Play: Utah State +23

[cmpicks]

(08-31-2011 02:23 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  All experts are to post their Week 1 plays in this thread. If possible, provide a one paragraph explanation for your pick.

Also: Please also provide a predicted final score. These will be useful down the road as the contest progresses, as they'll be used for tiebreaker purposes.

Still no final word on the details regarding the contest, but there will be a prize of some sort, as promised.

If you would like to take a team but have yet to sign up, just ask. I'd be happy to get you signed up. Deadline to register is Saturday at 11 a.m. ET.

Sorry for the late check-in here folks. There will be a Florida season thread started with this pick, and it will feature much more info starting next week.

Today's pick (are we using one specific book's lines, or best available offshore?)

As I've mentioned previously, Florida's nonconference games are a joke, and would usually be a no-play for me. But no reason to just automatically take a loss today...

Official Week 1 Play: Florida Atlantic +35 (-105) at Florida (TheGreek) -- Risk 105/Win 100.

These teams have only met once in 2007 when FAU played the role of Florida's annual BS game between the end of the SEC Schedule and the post-Thanksgiving FSU showdown. In 2007, Tim Tebow's Heisman-winning season, Florida won 59-20.

Obviously the athletes on Florida are better, and the offense will probably look decent enough that some people keep building the Florida hype. But UF's defense is young and will be unable to pitch a shutout, meaning UF's offense will have to put up a ton of points. Last year in weak nonconf games, Florida beat Miami (Ohio) by 22 and App St by 38. If FAU scores 13, Florida's offense would have to put nearly 50 points. It might happen (hence the one unit purely action play), but I think it will not.

Score Prediction: Florida 31, Florida Atlantic 13 [so I'd go under 47, fyi]

Best of luck all.

[patrickjbyrne]

(09-03-2011 12:17 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(09-03-2011 12:02 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  I have to say, this seems like the most decisive pick from any expert so far. You really that confident, Patrick? (I'll admit that I don't know much about either of these teams, but I loved the Doeren hire.)

I bet Northern Illinois at Mirage tonight.

Truthfully I am pretty strong on this personally. It's easily the most confident I feel on any of our non-conference games. This was a team that buried mediocre teams last year and returns a lot on O our best rusher was often QB Harnish as much as it was graduated RB Spann. Always a little concerned with new coaches and how they gameplan but OC was a former NIU coach and D should shape up nicely with Doeren.

Other concerns is with an option team like Army TOP is key for a play on the total. The QB is back for year 3 and they return most of their backs but he O-Line for Army only has 21 combined career starts (NIU has 116) and an oline for an option team needs time to gel.

Typically I'm not much of a homer but I personally laid 2.5 units on the spread and parlayed Huskies with the over.

I don't like comparing same opponents much but NIU and Army both played Temple and EMU last year. Army went 1-1 winning by 4 and losing by 3. NIU went 2-0 by a combined 82 points.

For anyone like me that needs to be able to watch games they bet it will be on ESPN3 this evening.

[Skating Tripods]

NIU down to 10 on Bodog.