College football team NEWS & UPDATES thread

[Beyond the Bets]

Interesting. I expect that number to climb to the 40s. Thanks for the update.

[Jgisland]

(08-23-2011 03:26 PM)greylorn Wrote:  From Colorado's side. They have a new coaching staff, and are bringing FIFTEEN freshman on their travel roster to Hawaii. And are staying at Waikiki. Uh....

The new CU media guide came out today, the Buffs aren't staying at Waikiki, they are staying at the JW Marriott Ihilani at Ko Olina,

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-24-2011 10:34 PM)Jgisland Wrote:  

(08-23-2011 03:26 PM)greylorn Wrote:  From Colorado's side. They have a new coaching staff, and are bringing FIFTEEN freshman on their travel roster to Hawaii. And are staying at Waikiki. Uh....

The new CU media guide came out today, the Buffs aren't staying at Waikiki, they are staying at the JW Marriott Ihilani at Ko Olina,

Already getting heated between the Hawaii and Colorado experts!

[Beyond the Bets]

BREAKING: If it hasn’t already, the University of Miami is expected to declare the 12 or more football players being investigated by the NCAA ineligible within the next week if the school wants the NCAA to rule on their reinstatement in time for the season opener Sept. 5 at Maryland.

Miami also can choose to let some or all of the players participate, but if they are found to have violated NCAA rules, the university would risk stiffer penalties.

[RyanParrill]

Taking over the 9th ranked offense is Al Borges.

He has been an offensive coordinator since 1985, except for a one-year vacation in 2008, coaching SEC offensive player of the year Jason Campbell and All-American running back Carnell Williams. As you’ll notice later, Michigan has a quarterback that can be similar to Jason Campbell. As far as running back, that will be an area of concern that may have consequences in B1G play.

Dave Cohen will offer his best attempt at defending Denard Robinson and company. He won’t actually be out there defending them, but he will come up with the game plan. Western Michigan had this to say: The Cohen led defense went back to an attack-style defense, ranking 34th in the country in both interceptions (15) and sacks (28.0). The Broncos finished the season third in the MAC in sacks and fourth in tackles for loss as well. WMU had 30 take-aways and two of its members were named Third Team All-MAC - Jamail Berry and Paul Hazel. Lewis Toler, despite not earning All-MAC honors, was named Freshman All-America by Rivals.com. Heading into the conference championships and bowl season, WMU ranked sixth in the nation in total take-aways (30) and finished the 2010 season ranked 12th.

It all starts in the trenches and that’s where I’ll start the preview. Michigan has little depth, that’s why they’ve recruited 5 OL and may still grab 2 more. I don’t believe this will be a problem against Western Michigan, as their experience will be of more importance. However, depth is a concern for B1G play and something to monitor for ND. It all starts at center with senior David Molk (286). He was 1st team B1G despite playing through some injury. Patrick Omameh (JR,299) will be the starting RG for the 2nd year. The LG will be Ricky Barnum (JR, 292) who played in 4 games last year. The bookends are LT Taylor Lewan (SO, 302, most likely to receive personal foul penalty, real nasty attitude on the field, has a mustache tattoo on his finger) and RT Mark Huyge (SR, 302). Michael Schofield (SO, 299) will be the first substitute. He’ll replace Huyge at RT who may take a rest or move down to guard to spell another player.

Putting their hands down opposite of this line are 4 returning starters for the Broncos. The players starting inside are Drew Nowak (SR, 292) and Travonte Boles (SO, 303). The best player on the line may be DE Paul Hazel (JR, 210). On the opposite end is Freddie Bishop (JR, 253). The top 7 contributors from last season return and this unit should improve.

As the nation knows, Denard Robinson is the starting QB for the Wolverines. He’ll be in a new offense that will ask him to take more snaps under center that include dropping back and going through his progressions. I could give you stats on how he did last year, but I don’t see that being the most beneficial. This is also true for the running backs. Since, you know, Denard ran for 1700 yards and now a RB will be depended upon. So if you don’t get stats, what do you get? Rambling. As MGoBlog points out, the more snaps under center for Denard, the more trouble that could cause. While I agree he is more susceptible to interceptions under center, he’s more deceptive doing both. Especially, if he can do both effectively. Meaning, last year he could fake the run, and throw a pass. He didn’t fake the pass and run very often. Dropping back from center, he’ll go through his progressions and be advised to run if all are checked. They’ll also have a kill-word so that he is able to do that at any time in the pocket. When Al Borges arrived he focused on preparing Denard under center. As time has went on, he has indicated he’ll use the shotgun more than he ever has. Can we capture magic in a bottle? We find out soon enough. Now for the running backs, the coaches would like 1 running back to handle 20-30 carries, along with another who takes about 10 carries, including 3rd downs. The 3rd down back, at this time, appears to be Vincent Smith. He was their leading rusher last year. Naturally, Hoke and Borges would like a larger back, but Smith’s blocking ability and tenacity keeps him in the lineup. Stephen Hopkins will get some carries here and they’ll be lead by the fullback, John McColgan. As of today, the running back position has become a 2-man race. Fitzgerald Touissant was impressive in the first scrimmage. Mike Shaw seems to be slightly ahead at the moment. I’ll keep this battle updated, although it may go into the game against Western Michigan.

Phil Steele considers the linebackers for Western Michigan to be the biggest question mark on their team. The team leader in tackles is MLB Mitch Zajac (SR, 229) who had 2 sacks and 2 TFL’s last year. The weakside LB is Desmond Bozeman (SO, 227). Since Western runs a 4-2-5, I’ll cover the rover with the rest of the secondary. Worth noting, Bozeman was given the nod recently. He took over for Chris Pom (JR, 233) who was a bit more productive last year.

The WR corps for Michigan has changed since the spring. Darryl Stonum (SR) decided since he would taste adult beverages and then…..And it wasn’t his first rodeo with the DUI court. That places him on the sidelines this year to redshirt. This leaves Roy Roundtree (JR, 176) and Junior Hemingway (SR, 225) to carry most of the workload. Hemingway has fought injuries throughout his career, but has shown great ability when healthy. Lately emerging as a contender for increased playing time is Jeremy Gallon (SO, 185). Kevin Koger (SR, 255) will be the starting TE with Brandon Moore (JR, 250) backing him up.

Trying to defend the receivers are 5 defensive backs that have little depth to work with. They lost their best 2 players. After a great freshmen season, Lewis Toler (5-10, 172) will start at CB. Opposite of him appears to be Garrett Smith (5-9, 170) who redshirted last year. He seems to have passed Raheam Buxton (6-0, 176) who is a sophomore. The safeties are senior SS Doug Wiggins (5-10, 209) and Sophomore FS Demetrius Pettway (5-10, 188). The Rover is sophomore Johnnie Simon (6-0, 180). Redshirt freshman John Henry (6-0, 173) may be seen on passing downs. As you can see, this is a young secondary that will need time to improve together.

Got it?

[Beyond the Bets]

Got an early lean here? I am just so damn intrigued by this team. I can't see them missing out on a bowl game and I legitimately wouldn't be surprised if they win 8 or even 9. I would like to see Robinson drop back to throw more, and then let him create with his feet when nothing presents itself down field.

I don't think we've seen the best from Robinson. Actually, I know we haven't. Keep this guy healthy, put him in the gun and let him do his thing.

[RyanParrill]

(08-25-2011 09:32 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Got an early lean here? I am just so damn intrigued by this team. I can't see them missing out on a bowl game and I legitimately wouldn't be surprised if they win 8 or even 9. I would like to see Robinson drop back to throw more, and then let him create with his feet when nothing presents itself down field.

I don't think we've seen the best from Robinson. Actually, I know we haven't. Keep this guy healthy, put him in the gun and let him do his thing.

Here are the season openers Bill Cubit has had:

2005 @Virginia +36 (They came off a 1-10 season with 10 straight losses to end the year)...They lost 31-19

2006 @Indiana +8...........Lost 39-20
2007 @WestVirginia +24...Lost 62-24
2008 @Nebraska +13.5.....Lost 47-24
2009 @Michigan +13........Lost 31-7
2010 @MSU +22.5...........Lost 38-14

1-5 ATS with 5 straight losses.

[Beyond the Bets]

BREAKING: Jacory Harris and seven others declared ineligible.

[SkyBlues42]

it was only a matter of time

[Jgisland]

Looks like 2 Hawaii starters will most likely miss the CU game.


Two University of Hawaii football starters — outside linebacker Aaron Brown and left wideout Darius Bright — have been suspended from team-related activities following their arrests this morning.

They were accused of third-degree assault, a misdemeanor, for their alleged involvement in a fight in a Waikiki nightclub.


http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/break...65723.html

[jimmysingh9]

Colorado State Starting middle linebacker James Skelton, 21, and backup defensive tackle Zach Tiedgen, 21, were cited for disorderly conduct. The two juniors were arrested at a move-in pool party at the Campus Crossroads at Ram's Pointe apartment complex.

[greylorn]

(08-28-2011 07:40 PM)Jgisland Wrote:  Looks like 2 Hawaii starters will most likely miss the CU game.


Two University of Hawaii football starters — outside linebacker Aaron Brown and left wideout Darius Bright — have been suspended from team-related activities following their arrests this morning.

They were accused of third-degree assault, a misdemeanor, for their alleged involvement in a fight in a Waikiki nightclub.


http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/break...65723.html

The loss of Darius Bright will probably have a minimal impact on the game. Bright was the upside player -- a big/tall "Divison-I" type WR in the Hawai'i system would have been potentially interesting.

But honestly, Bright hadn't wow-ed in practice, nor did he practice very much lately (due to nagging injury issues). This would have been his first real game in the system, and there were (or at least) I had serious doubts on his effectiveness off the bat.

Remember, over 75% of the routes WR will run in this system are option routes. Meaning, the WR has to pick from 2 or 3 possible routes at the line, by reading the defense (hopefully the same way as the QB...)

I'm not sure Bright was ready for primetime, in this respect.

His replacement will be Allen Sampson. Think Chad Owens, but a tad faster, and also smaller/shorter. Mad quick (probably fits the system), but has shown problems with nerves. Could be big play threat or a non-factor. (Not much in between, tbh).

--

Aaron Brown was a decent returning LB. Losing him will hurt Hawaii defense, but not in a major way. Definitely more so than the loss of Bright though.

Thing is, this shouldn't change the Buffaloes game plan -- they should be running toward the OLBs/passing to the TEs anyway.

This places a larger responsibility on the DL -- of which this is Hawaii's strongest group in nearly a decade. Not the worst.

==

I think this should have pushed the line very slightly in Colorado's direction. The fact that it hasn't is interesting.

I also think this should push the total a tad higher. The total is hovering around 55.0 with a few 54.5 numbers.

The total opened at 57.5 and has tumbled as low as 54.5. This is due to the perception (amongst many smart people might mind you)....

- That Hawaii has it's best defense in years
- That Colorado can control the tempo with a power running game
- That Hawaii's new receiving core won't have as good chemistry in Game 1

I think reality is different though:

- Hawaii does have it's best defense in a long time. However, this isn't a shutdown defense (other than the DTs and the MLB), instead it's a good defense that creates turnovers. A playmaking defense. Playmaking defenses tend to actually play in higher scoring games, due to the creation of short fields and sometimes getting burned on blitzes. This is a factor supporting the over.

- I think Colorado will be able to control tempo...in the first half. The game will likely change drastically in the second half, as the day game will turn into a night game. Hawaii's home field edge increases greatly at night. (Time change impact is bigger, effect of humidity with cooler temperatures creates a funky atmosphere) I would expect that even if Colorado controls tempo for a while, they'll need to kick it up in the 2nd half anyway.

- Think I mentioned it before, but most of Hawaii's "new" receiving core, aren't really new to the system at all. Billy Ray Stutzman and Jeremiah Ostrowski both played in this system in high school and have been on the bench for 2+ seasons. Pollard played a lot last year. Allen Sampson will be a ?, but with the others, he'll be a nice bonus, rather than a key component.

==

Fwiw, I'm pretty sure I will be playing the O54.5....

If you want to play Colorado +7, I'd get it now. If you want to play Hawaii, I might wait and see if you can get -6.5 or better.

If you want to play the Over, play it soon. Public usually pushes Hawaii games to the Over as we approach kickoff. Wait on the Under, obv.

[Beyond the Bets]

Good stuff, Grey.

[Spburn2]

Anyone got some input or good info about Richmond +8.5 @ Duke?

Richmond has beat Duke in their last two meetings (2009- 24-16, 2006 13-0). Although, Duke's program has improved since Cutcliffe became head coach in '08.

[ChiefZilla]

Fantastic analysis, Greylorn. You've got me convinced on the O 54.5. I also like Hawaii (I'm down on CU this year), but will wait to see if it moves down from -7 before deciding whether to make a play.

[RyanParrill]

This has to be news, right?!?!?!?!?!?!

[ChiefZilla]

Just when I thought KSU couldn't embarrass itself any more after this, they go and create something like the EcoKat.

Nice find, Ryan.

[RyanParrill]

Bill Cubit runs his own offense. I’ll change up the preview and do it a little different. As to giving a brief synopsis, MGoBlog has provided one that covers everything you currently need:

“The Broncos ran a pass-heavy spread offense last year, putting the majority of the focus on QB Alex Carder and his stable of receivers. Part of the apparent balance in playcalling is a mirage, as the Broncos were one of the most-sacked teams in America, with Alex Carder and Tyler VanTubbergen going down 30 times on the year. Adjusting the playcall distribution to account for that, they're 1.42 passes per run. Their playcalling makes sense given that they were a decent team on a yards-per-pass basis, and god awful at running the rock.
Ever since Bill Cubit has been at Western Michigan, they've been a pass-heavy team, regardless of talent. Expect that to continue into 2011.”

This offense will be lead by Alex Carder (Jr.), which will begin his second season as a starter. He threw for 3,334 yards along with 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He progressed as the year went on and become much more efficient. He’ll have Tevin Drake (SO) and Aaron Winchester (SR) behind him. Winchester had majority of the workload last year, while Drake much more productive. I’m not sure why the same person performing is also the same person getting the most work, but I’m not the only one. As was mentioned earlier, the running game is not their strength.
The wide receiver position for WMU is their strength. They return Jordan White (SR), who was a Biletnikoff semifinalist last year, was granted a medical redshirt to be eligible for his 6th year. They lost their second best receiver so here’s another snippet from MGoBlog previewing that issue. I felt they posed a good question at the end:

“Robert Arnheim and Ansel Ponder will have to take much bigger roles in 2011, and since three tight ends with game experience are returning, might we see a bit more use of those guys?”

As for Michigan, here is the defensive formation they will be using:
They’ll also be using a nickel package (duh) for obvious passing downs but I am not exactly sure how this will look, so unfortunately that’s the only question mark I leave.

Michigan released their 2-deep for the game so I won’t get into the specifics. I’ll just post it here and give my thoughts on each unit.
The linebacker unit is the biggest worry of the defense. I believe Kenny Demens will anchor this unit (not just because he’s the MLB), and can provide some stability for a position group that hasn’t been consistent since Michigan was, well, uh, nationally relevant. Coaching (I can’t make promises I’ll stop beating the dead horse of GERG) should make a large improvement here. As you see, there is some youth in the depth. As I’ve said before, depth may be an issue against ND and the B1G, but is not something that worries me with Western Michigan. There’s strong competition in the 2-deep, just little room for error and injuries with such youth behind that. Here’s another in-depth analysis of this unit. I do, and will, link MGoBlog a lot throughout the year. Every fan base would be lucky to have a blog this informative so there’s no reason I shouldn’t expose it.

The secondary has changed a lot since a year ago today. Troy Woolfolk (SR) is the biggest, as he was injured in fall camp and missed the entire 2010 season. He hasn’t had any pain this fall from the injury, and many practice reports have been read and studied to ensure this. Courtney Avery (SO) OR JT Floyd (JR) will be across from him. I expect Courtney Avery to be the starter, but both will be on the field in passing down sitatuations. Jordan Kovacs (JR) is a walk-on that has been the most consistent piece over the last 3 years. Many have questioned whether he should start, and he has remained here through a few years and 2 coaching staffs. He’ll be the QB of the defense since he is the most comfortable with the positions and most knowledgeable of the opposing offenses. Starting next to him is Thomas Gordon (SO), who will be a fresh face in the secondary. Here’s the MGoBlog preview.

The defensive line is the most experienced and the most stable of all the position groups. At Nose Tackle is Mark Martin (SR, beast, future 1st rounder) and he’ll have Ryan Van Bergen (SR) next to him, who has put on weight and slid down from the end. The defensive ends will be Craig Roh (JR) and Will Heininger (SR). They’ll be substituted often by Jibreel Black (SO) and Nathan Brink (SO). MGoBlog says.

That’s all folks.

Wait, a pick?

Oh yeah, Michigan 31 – Western Michigan 14.

[Skating Tripods]

Great write-up. Really informative. WMU is a real darkhorse MAC team that can give the big boys some real problems. I wouldn't be shocked to see them playing spoiler this year. They aren't talented enough on D to win the MAC, but they're gifted enough on offense to upset somebody.


Oh, and you're saying that the final score will be 16 points lower than the posted total? So, is the total (61) way off?

I think the books might be overvaluing the amount of points UM will score. Hoke's going to use this game to make Robinson stand in the pocket and throw so he can get used to a pro style offense. Plus, WMU has one of the better secondaries in the MAC, so it's a moderately stiff test for Robinson. Not something that Robinson's used to, and he's pretty INT-prone.

It's an interesting game to keep an eye on. WMU could put a scare in to Michigan because they're playing with nothing to lose while UM's got new schemes to transition to.

[RyanParrill]

(08-30-2011 06:32 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Great write-up. Really informative. WMU is a real darkhorse MAC team that can give the big boys some real problems. I wouldn't be shocked to see them playing spoiler this year. They aren't talented enough on D to win the MAC, but they're gifted enough on offense to upset somebody.


Oh, and you're saying that the final score will be 16 points lower than the posted total? So, is the total (61) way off?

I think the books might be overvaluing the amount of points UM will score. Hoke's going to use this game to make Robinson stand in the pocket and throw so he can get used to a pro style offense. Plus, WMU has one of the better secondaries in the MAC, so it's a moderately stiff test for Robinson. Not something that Robinson's used to, and he's pretty INT-prone.

It's an interesting game to keep an eye on. WMU could put a scare in to Michigan because they're playing with nothing to lose while UM's got new schemes to transition to.

Excellent discussion points. Western is definitely a dark horse MAC team. Bill Cubit makes his teams better as the year goes on, if they can take care of Central early, they have a real shot. Of course, playing @Toledo and @Illinois.

As for the total, I definitely think the under would be the play. Now saying that, I tend to believe in more of a 17 point spread than a 45 total.

Hoke and Borges are going to focus on establishing the run, first and foremost. A big part of this is that they want to control the ball more, take pressure off of the defense.

I started a thread that discussed in-game betting. It's not necessarily in-game, since you can get the line before the start, but my score should reflect my stronger beliefs on the first half. Having new coaches with established players (Losing 1.5 starters on offense), I believe, provides a great opportunity for this. Borges would like to install a pro-style offense. He's also gone on to say he'll be in more shotgun formations than in his career. And he'll do what works. I'm not sure what the complete game plan may look like. But I have much more confidence in the fact that this offense can cover a 14 point spread and the defense can maintain that. Tough to say what could happen to an under/over cover at the end. Hopefully, that makes some sense.

"Hey, moron, in 3 years you lost to Appalachian State and Toledo." I know, I remember. And because I remember I can see the difference in all of these teams. I could tell you the gimmicks Hoke has throughout Schembechler Hall to make sure this team is focused. Here's one for this week (I wouldn't post this but if I'm going to post K-State embarrassment...):