College football preparation

[Beyond the Bets]

Everything you need is below. Any requests, don't hesitate.

Hopefully this will make your life a little easier.

* * *

WIN TOTALS

• We projected win totals for all 124 FBS teams earlier this month.
  
  • ACC
  • Big East
  • Big Ten
  • Big 12
  • Pac-12
  • SEC
• 5Dimes sportsbook released win totals for 31 teams shortly after the BCS national title game. However, official schedules had yet to be released, and many of the lines have since been juiced heavily.

• The Greek became the first offshore to officially release win totals earlier this week. There are over/unders for 43 teams, and they'll continue to add to them in the weeks to come.
  
  • Most recent update came on June 28.
• Here's a look at how our win total projections stacked up against The Greek's.

POINT SPREADS

• We projected point spreads for all 798 college football games, including games involving low-level FBS teams, newcomers and FCS squads. You can view conference-specific spreads by clicking the following links:
  
  • ACC
  • Big East
  • Big Ten
  • Big 12
  • Pac-12
  • SEC
• Golden Nugget Casino released its annual Games of the Year lines on June 11. There are point spreads for 111 games, most of which involve BCS schools.
  
  • Thirty-five percent of the Golden Nugget's lines were within one point of our projected spreads. Seventy-five percent were within a field goal.
  • ESPN's Colin Cowherd offered his take on 10 marquee games.
  • Nugget oddsmakers made it clear that they think Alabama is better than LSU.
  • We revisited the Nugget earlier this week to get updated point spreads.
• 5Dimes sportsbook released Games of the Year lines on Thursday for 115 games, but almost all of the matchups are the same as the Nugget's.

MAGAZINES

• LSU and USC are tabbed as the No. 1 consensus teams in a review of four preview magazines.

• Phil Steele predicts Florida State to win the 2013 BCS national championship.
  
  • Ever wonder how Steele's most improved teams fare against their season win totals? The answer is here.
• Comparing Lindy's projections against college football futures odds.

PREDICTIONS

• Our best value pick to win the national championship.

• Win total Best Bet ... click here.

• Our friends at Saturday Down South handicapped the SEC East and West division races.

• Prediction Machine's Paul Bessire provided his most likely national champion.
  
  • If you're interested, Bessire conducted a Q&A with us in mid-June.
• Win odds suggest that Oregon will have the most wins of all 124 FBS teams.
  
  • Odds for every team can be found here.

ANALYSIS

• The SEC is projected to be favored in 51 of 56 non conference games by an average of more than three TD's.
  
  • The ACC and Big East challenged themselves in non-con play; the Big 12 didn't.
• What's the purpose of projecting spreads for every game, anyway?

• Using line projections as a guide, here's what conference standings might look like.

• What statistics are useful when handicapping college football and how can they be applied?

• Why do the pundits like a team with a freshman QB so much?
  
  • Surprise teams, anyone?

• How do you project college football point spreads? What is the process like?

• What about projecting win totals? Same general approach?

FUTURES ODDS

• A comparison of odds to win each conference at various sportsbooks.

• Who is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy?
  
  • Psssst. There's some serious value on Kansas State QB Collin Klein.
• BCS national championship odds are constantly changing. However ... 
  
  • The Greek was the first offshore to release odds.
  • Caesars Palace was first in Las Vegas.
• Odds for a few dozen teams to make (or miss) BCS Bowl games.

[Wiseguy]

This is nice! Thanks, I really like having a place with so many useful links. I use this site a lot for this alone.

[ChiefZilla]

Bookmarked. Thanks.

[joeytunes2]

best site on the net..bar none

[Beyond the Bets]

(06-29-2012 05:59 PM)joeytunes2 Wrote:  best site on the net..bar none

Completely agree.

[PseudoSharp]

This thread should be stickied to the top.

This is good info, but your take on Stanford really jumps out at me.

Stanford will go 7-2 in P12? They are 8-4 last year without Luck. They will crash back down hard w/o him. 5+ losses SC, @Wash, @ND, @Cal, @Ore, @Colo, @UCLA . I would max bet Wash +1.5 vs Stan. Stan should be at least +7.5

[lindetrain]

(07-03-2012 06:58 PM)PseudoSharp Wrote:  This thread should be stickied to the top.

This is good info, but your take on Stanford really jumps out at me.

Stanford will go 7-2 in P12? They are 8-4 last year without Luck. They will crash back down hard w/o him. 5+ losses SC, @Wash, @ND, @Cal, @Ore, @Colo, @UCLA . I would max bet Wash +1.5 vs Stan. Stan should be at least +7.5

Stanford pounds the rock, controls the football, and plays good D. Obviously things are more efficient with a guy the caliber of Luck, but with virtually everyone else back, what tells you things will be THAT different? Their new QB doesn't have to be a superstar for them to win 8-9 games.

[PseudoSharp]

6 return on O and 7 on D isn't close to virtually everyone. Teams don't simply continue to win 9+ games after losing a 3 year starting QB who meant so much to their success. Stan before Luck = 7 straight losing seasons. With = 3 winning and 2 BCS

This isn't a fringe belief. 5D and Greek both have O/U at 7. Schedule speaks for itself. Far harder than any of Luck's seasons. He would do well to get 9 wins if he were playing this year.

[Beyond the Bets]

(07-03-2012 06:58 PM)PseudoSharp Wrote:  This thread should be stickied to the top.

This is good info, but your take on Stanford really jumps out at me.

Stanford will go 7-2 in P12? They are 8-4 last year without Luck. They will crash back down hard w/o him. 5+ losses SC, @Wash, @ND, @Cal, @Ore, @Colo, @UCLA . I would max bet Wash +1.5 vs Stan. Stan should be at least +7.5

I actually don't think Stanford will go 7-2. If you took the time to read the post you're referencing (lol), you would see that the standings are merely IF every favorite won.

Obviously, that won't happen.

A more realistic projection calls for Stanford to finish 6-3 in P12 play.

[lindetrain]

Obviously a total change in culture from before Luck was there. With Taylor, Gaffney, a few WRs/TEs who played a role in the passing game, and 3 OL back from last year, do you really think they fall to irrelevance offensively? They were 18th in the country in rush YPG WITH one of the best QBs in the country. Skov returning from injury on D as well, which is huge for them.

Sure, tough schedule with USC and trips to Oregon and Notre Dame. Not disagreeing there. But I think you're totally underestimating their chances in the other games (saying they should be +7.5 to Washington is a joke in itself). As I said, 8-4 - or even 9-3 if they somehow pull an upset in South Bend - wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

[ChiefZilla]

Bump.

Also, I think 8-4 is a very realistic record for Stanford. Don't think they fall on their face without Luck. That program is tons more rich in talent than when he arrived there.

Besides, aside from USC, they actually got an easy schedule from the south. They get both Colorado and Arizona and avoid Utah. I think 6-6 is an absolute bare minimum, disaster of a season for them. 9-3 not out of the question.

[Red Dirt Road]

Would you mind telling me where I can find a master schedule for the 2012 season? Preferably in Excel form. I downloaded the schedule last year from http://www.mysportscal.com/ncaa-fb-.html and it works beautifully for plugging in power rankings, etc, but they don't have the 2012 version up yet.

Thanks!

[Red Dirt Road]

No responses, but I did get an email from the folks at mysportscal saying that they were working on the master schedule now, so I guess I'll hang tight until it's complete.

[ChiefZilla]

I couldn't get that link to work, red dirt road. Could you?

[Red Dirt Road]

(07-15-2012 09:39 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  I couldn't get that link to work, red dirt road. Could you?

the NCAAF link looks to be dead right now while it's being updated for this year, but there are several individual team schedules posted. Also has the NFL master schedule up. Hopefully it won't be too long before the NCAAF master schedule is finished.

If you want a copy of last years' schedule for some reason, I can probably find a way to upload it for you

[GreyMatterStats]

Hi Red,

If you go to the embedded spreadsheet in the following blog entry you can find the full schedule under the tab "BY_TEAM_DETAIL".

GreyMatterStats 2012 College Football Projected Win Totals and Conference Standings

The way we present the data you will need to propagate the master team name down column A. if this is a problem for you let me know and I will just post a full schedule on that sheet with this already done.

FYI, additionally in columns G and H we indicate the city and stadium for neutral site games.

Let us know if you have any questions.

(07-07-2012 01:56 PM)Red Dirt Road Wrote:  Would you mind telling me where I can find a master schedule for the 2012 season? Preferably in Excel form. I downloaded the schedule last year from http://www.mysportscal.com/ncaa-fb-.html and it works beautifully for plugging in power rankings, etc, but they don't have the 2012 version up yet.

Thanks!

[Red Dirt Road]

(07-15-2012 01:26 PM)GreyMatterStats Wrote:  Hi Red,

If you go to the embedded spreadsheet in the following blog entry you can find the full schedule under the tab "BY_TEAM_DETAIL".

GreyMatterStats 2012 College Football Projected Win Totals and Conference Standings

The way we present the data you will need to propagate the master team name down column A. if this is a problem for you let me know and I will just post a full schedule on that sheet with this already done.

FYI, additionally in columns G and H we indicate the city and stadium for neutral site games.

Let us know if you have any questions.

(07-07-2012 01:56 PM)Red Dirt Road Wrote:  Would you mind telling me where I can find a master schedule for the 2012 season? Preferably in Excel form. I downloaded the schedule last year from http://www.mysportscal.com/ncaa-fb-.html and it works beautifully for plugging in power rankings, etc, but they don't have the 2012 version up yet.

Thanks!

Perfect, thanks man. A little tweaking and I got exactly what I needed!

[GreyMatterStats]

Hi Everyone,

For anyone who has used our spreadsheet to create a 2012 NCAAF master schedule, please be advised that we have updated three games where the date has changed from our initial posting of this many weeks ago.

There may be more that we uncover and will update this thread as needed.

For now, the games that have changed are as follows:

1. Rutgers at South Florida was 9/15/2012 and is now scheduled for 9/13/2012
2. Hawaii at BYU was 9/29/2012 and is now scheduled for 9/28/2012
3. Houston at SMU was 10/20/2012 and is now scheduled for 10/18/2012

[Red Dirt Road]

(07-16-2012 10:29 AM)GreyMatterStats Wrote:  Hi Everyone,

For anyone who has used our spreadsheet to create a 2012 NCAAF master schedule, please be advised that we have updated three games where the date has changed from our initial posting of this many weeks ago.

There may be more that we uncover and will update this thread as needed.

For now, the games that have changed are as follows:

1. Rutgers at South Florida was 9/15/2012 and is now scheduled for 9/13/2012
2. Hawaii at BYU was 9/29/2012 and is now scheduled for 9/28/2012
3. Houston at SMU was 10/20/2012 and is now scheduled for 10/18/2012

Thanks for the update

[LOLstradamus]

This is awesome - thanks much!