College football discussion w/ Week 1 lines

[Beyond the Bets]

College football Week 1 lines are out!!!

[Beyond the Bets]

[Beyond the Bets]

Current numbers at Golden Nugget (only two that were previously released):

Michigan State -7.5 vs. Boise State* (GREAT BET!)
Alabama -10 vs. Michigan

[lindetrain]

I think BOL/5D are in the wrong with this one, not Golden Nugget. I'd jump all over MSU at the -4.5 rather than taking Boise at +7.5.

[Sandlapper]

SC only a 6.5 point favorite at Vandy? Is Vandy supposed to be good this year?

[Rickcz1]

Michigan State -7.5 vs. Boise State* (GREAT BET!)

Which way?

I believe MSU is going to kill Boise. One of the premier defenses in the nation going against a new QB at Boise with a majority of the big time weapons gone.

Everyone is worried about MSU's passing attack... the problem is they have a stud at RB and an experienced o-line. That is big ten football. They will be able to pass enough to move the chains. I don't see Boise doing much on offense. 27-10 type game.

[ChiefZilla]

(07-31-2012 04:53 PM)Sandlapper Wrote:  SC only a 6.5 point favorite at Vandy? Is Vandy supposed to be good this year?

Vandy's better than normal, I think. Plus, it's the first nationally televised game of the new season, so that might have something to do with it. Still, I'd have it closer to 10.

[LOLstradamus]

(07-31-2012 05:25 PM)Rickcz1 Wrote:  Michigan State -7.5 vs. Boise State* (GREAT BET!)

Which way?

I believe MSU is going to kill Boise. One of the premier defenses in the nation going against a new QB at Boise with a majority of the big time weapons gone.

Everyone is worried about MSU's passing attack... the problem is they have a stud at RB and an experienced o-line. That is big ten football. They will be able to pass enough to move the chains. I don't see Boise doing much on offense. 27-10 type game.

I wouldn't be so sure. Think about how many times people have discredited Boise in the opener and been quietly proven wrong? Boise State has never been a 'weapons' team, Chris Petersen is an amazing coach who knows how to be competitive in the spotlight. I'm still keeping an eye on this one, but be careful whenever you expect Boise to get blown out.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-01-2012 12:06 AM)squarebets Wrote:  I'm still keeping an eye on this one, but be careful whenever you expect Boise to get blown out.

This. Never doubt Boise. Ever.

[the dude]

(08-01-2012 04:50 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(08-01-2012 12:06 AM)squarebets Wrote:  I'm still keeping an eye on this one, but be careful whenever you expect Boise to get blown out.

This. Never doubt Boise. Ever.

Agreed. I know they have a young team this year, but Chris Peterson gets his team firing out of the gate. They've had three big opening games over the last three years and have won each of them.

2011- Beat #19 Georgia 35-21 at Georgia Dome
2010 - Beat #10 VT 33-30 at FedEx Field
2009 - Beat #16 Oregon 19-8 at home

Line has moved from -7.5 to -5.5 already. I think now would be the time to take MSU if you like them. I would expect it to move to -6, -6.5 the closer it gets to kick-off.

[Skating Tripods]

(07-31-2012 06:34 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(07-31-2012 04:53 PM)Sandlapper Wrote:  SC only a 6.5 point favorite at Vandy? Is Vandy supposed to be good this year?

Vandy's better than normal, I think. Plus, it's the first nationally televised game of the new season, so that might have something to do with it. Still, I'd have it closer to 10.

Vandy shouldn't be bad, anyway. They were in the middle of the pack in SEC defense last year and could improve this year.

The total is what sticks out to me. South Carolina often looks unprepared on offense in the 1st quarter of every SEC game. I don't see where that would be any different with a road game this year.

Last 5 years of SC/Vandy:

17-6, 24-17, 14-10, 21-7, 21-3

Personally think that number should at least be below 45. If it was in the 42-43 range, I'd think harder about it. At 47, it's too high.


Looking over the rest of the numbers now...

Ohio State number is low. Urban won't want to run it up, but he'll want to get some camaraderie going between Braxton Miller and his receivers. He's also very high on Kenny Guiton and Cardale Jones, so if they come in the game, it may not be just to hand the ball off. He's learning his roster just the same as they're all learning his playbook. I think he'll let a lot of guys do a lot of things. The defensive coaching staff remained in tact and added Withers, so there shouldn't be a massive overhaul that would cause trouble there.

Lean WMU/Illinois over 52. Carder's going to air it out and Beckman should bring more of an uptempo offense to Illinois. Lots of big play potential in this game.

Not a fan of laying over three scores, but Nebraska should hammer Southern Miss. Lot of roster turnover at SoMiss plus Fedora off to UNC. SoMiss lost their QB and 7 starters on D, including their top corner, top tackler, and top pass rusher (9.5 sacks and 12.5 TFL gone). Also lost their top two WR and one of C-USA's best kickers. Nebraska's averaging 47.4 pts per game in their season opener (Nevada, Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic, WKU, Chattanooga). SoMiss is better than those five teams, but, they're going to have some growing pains early on. I have this game closer to 21 or 24. Thinking it has 38-7, 38-14 kind of potential.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-01-2012 09:00 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Ohio State number is low. Urban won't want to run it up, but he'll want to get some camaraderie going between Braxton Miller and his receivers.

* * *

Pointed this out on Twitter last night, but I love the Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech under 50. Which is rare for me, since I don't play many college football totals (have always had more success with sides). But 50 seems too high to me, and for a few reasons:

1. Virginia Tech should be able to neutralize Georgia Tech's running game, at least for the most part. The Hokies have a great D and return (I think) about eight or nine guys in the front 7 who have logged significant time. Foster will have the D ready and shouldn't have to worry about the usual GT deep thread. Why?
2. Because GT doesn't have a single receiver on its team who has ever caught a pass. Hill is gone. Cupboard is mostly bare. As long as VT doesn't give up the big play - and I suspect they'll be able to avoid it - expect a lot of long, clock-killing drives for a very, very veteran GT offense.
3. VT will suffer some growing pains early on offense. Logan Thomas will be operating behind an entirely rebuilt offensive line and doesn't have much help in the backfield (goodbye, Wilson), so it'll be interesting to see if they're able to sustain drives, particularly in 3rd-and-short situations. Thomas is going to be asked to do more than he's probably capable of at times.
4. The Hokies have fared pretty well against PJ's offense in the past, allowing 19 ppg in two games in Blacksburg.
5. I expect both teams to play a bit more conservatively than normal, particularly Virginia Tech. Huge Coastal implications right out of the chute and can't afford an early loss.

A few other reasons but not very exciting. Would be interested to hear your guys' thoughts on this or any of the other totals. Particularly Arizona-Toledo.

[Wiseguy]

(08-01-2012 09:00 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(07-31-2012 06:34 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(07-31-2012 04:53 PM)Sandlapper Wrote:  SC only a 6.5 point favorite at Vandy? Is Vandy supposed to be good this year?

Vandy's better than normal, I think. Plus, it's the first nationally televised game of the new season, so that might have something to do with it. Still, I'd have it closer to 10.

Vandy shouldn't be bad, anyway. They were in the middle of the pack in SEC defense last year and could improve this year.

The total is what sticks out to me. South Carolina often looks unprepared on offense in the 1st quarter of every SEC game. I don't see where that would be any different with a road game this year.

Last 5 years of SC/Vandy:

17-6, 24-17, 14-10, 21-7, 21-3

I agree on Vandy, think they are underrated. They have been making waves on the recruiting trail the last couple of years. They are on the upswing imo.

[Skating Tripods]

(08-01-2012 10:05 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Would be interested to hear your guys' thoughts on this or any of the other totals. Particularly Arizona-Toledo.

On the GT/VT total, my only worry is that VT is breaking in two new safeties. Safeties are the key to the gimmick offenses because they can't get caught in no man's land and allow big plays. Both safeties are sophomores and they did play as freshmen, but not much.

Like your point on the VT offense, especially considering that they lost 151 career starts to graduation. Makes Logan Thomas's job significantly harder, especially, as you said, without Wilson. Also lost their top 2 WR.

Hard to definitively say one way or another how I feel about the total. I do like having 51 as a push since 34-17, 31-20 seems doable.
----

Arizona-Toledo, another one that's tough. Arizona loses probably 90% of its offense with Foles, Criner, Antolin, and Douglas gone. But, they return the same shitty defense that got torched for 35 ppg last season.

The one thing that makes me shy away from the over regarding Arizona's defense is that they're moving to a 3-3-5, which should keep Toledo's big play ability out of the picture. Not to mention, Toledo lost 5 of their top 6 WRs.

It's a stay away game for me. Two new coaches, no real idea how they'll do with a lot of losses on offense.

----

Couple other totals I do like:
Florida/BG o48 - BG's susceptible to a lot of big plays on defense and I think some of Florida's guys will get caught looking to make big plays on defense and get burned once or twice. I really believe Florida gets into the 40s, which means BG only has to find the end zone once for at least a push. BG has a little talent with Matt Schilz and Anthon Samuel. Samuel, a Florida native who should be jacked up to play in Gainesville, also likes to put the ball on the carpet. Could lead to some short fields for UF.

Boise/MSU u53.5 - This game may not even come close to that total. A lot of new guys on offense, both coaches will probably play this game pretty conservatively. Since MSU can't really spread the field out with a new QB and a bunch of inexperienced WRs, they'll run a lot and try and assert their dominance that way. Boise will keep their schemes simple with a lot of losses from last year's team. A very vanilla, boring game IMO.

[Smackersmith]

I'm liking the over in the Ohio st game too. -21.5 isn't bad either bearing in mind that Meyer is going to want to make a statement in this game. New coach, new regime and over the sanctions = wanting to make a statement.

Also agree with the under in the msu/boise game. Tough D from the sparts and new components from both offences. I'm expecting a 24-14 score line in favour of sparty.

[BetATL]

I like Tennessee -3 against NC State in the Georgia Dome.

It's been talked about but Tennessee could be a sleeper this year with a 19 returning starters and a very solid QB.

[wreckem10]

Marcus lattimore might not be back for vandy game either.

Betatl I agree with u on Tenn. Will probably be on them against nc st, will probably be on vandy vs sc too.

[BetATL]

(08-01-2012 10:05 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(08-01-2012 09:00 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Ohio State number is low. Urban won't want to run it up, but he'll want to get some camaraderie going between Braxton Miller and his receivers.

* * *

Pointed this out on Twitter last night, but I love the Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech under 50. Which is rare for me, since I don't play many college football totals (have always had more success with sides). But 50 seems too high to me, and for a few reasons:

1. Virginia Tech should be able to neutralize Georgia Tech's running game, at least for the most part. The Hokies have a great D and return (I think) about eight or nine guys in the front 7 who have logged significant time. Foster will have the D ready and shouldn't have to worry about the usual GT deep thread. Why?
2. Because GT doesn't have a single receiver on its team who has ever caught a pass. Hill is gone. Cupboard is mostly bare. As long as VT doesn't give up the big play - and I suspect they'll be able to avoid it - expect a lot of long, clock-killing drives for a very, very veteran GT offense.
3. VT will suffer some growing pains early on offense. Logan Thomas will be operating behind an entirely rebuilt offensive line and doesn't have much help in the backfield (goodbye, Wilson), so it'll be interesting to see if they're able to sustain drives, particularly in 3rd-and-short situations. Thomas is going to be asked to do more than he's probably capable of at times.
4. The Hokies have fared pretty well against PJ's offense in the past, allowing 19 ppg in two games in Blacksburg.
5. I expect both teams to play a bit more conservatively than normal, particularly Virginia Tech. Huge Coastal implications right out of the chute and can't afford an early loss.

A few other reasons but not very exciting. Would be interested to hear your guys' thoughts on this or any of the other totals. Particularly Arizona-Toledo.

I agree on the GT/VT total BTB.

GT's option offense has struggled when the opposing defense has had adequate time to prepare. GT has struggled in bowl games and also against teams that are coming off byes because the opposing defenses have more than just a few days to learn how to properly defend the triple option.

VT obviously won't spend their whole summer preparing to stop APJ's offense but they should certainly be well prepared.

[Skating Tripods]

(08-01-2012 01:59 PM)wreckem10 Wrote:  Marcus lattimore might not be back for vandy game either.

Where did you see that?

Yahoo's Team Report, posted yesterday, says:

Quote:He [Lattimore] is slated to begin pre-season practice at 100 percent, physically and ready to play.

Despite the injury Lattimore was the leading vote getter on the Preseason All-Southeastern Conference Team.

“Marcus rehabbed his knee beautifully,” said Spurrier. “He did everything that was asked and probably a little bit more. He should be ready to go.”

I don't think Lattimore sees a ton of carries in the opener, but USC has great depth at RB this year.

[lindetrain]

(08-01-2012 11:10 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(08-01-2012 10:05 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Would be interested to hear your guys' thoughts on this or any of the other totals. Particularly Arizona-Toledo.

On the GT/VT total, my only worry is that VT is breaking in two new safeties. Safeties are the key to the gimmick offenses because they can't get caught in no man's land and allow big plays. Both safeties are sophomores and they did play as freshmen, but not much.

Like your point on the VT offense, especially considering that they lost 151 career starts to graduation. Makes Logan Thomas's job significantly harder, especially, as you said, without Wilson. Also lost their top 2 WR.

Hard to definitively say one way or another how I feel about the total. I do like having 51 as a push since 34-17, 31-20 seems doable.
----

Arizona-Toledo, another one that's tough. Arizona loses probably 90% of its offense with Foles, Criner, Antolin, and Douglas gone. But, they return the same shitty defense that got torched for 35 ppg last season.

The one thing that makes me shy away from the over regarding Arizona's defense is that they're moving to a 3-3-5, which should keep Toledo's big play ability out of the picture. Not to mention, Toledo lost 5 of their top 6 WRs.

It's a stay away game for me. Two new coaches, no real idea how they'll do with a lot of losses on offense.

----

Couple other totals I do like:
Florida/BG o48 - BG's susceptible to a lot of big plays on defense and I think some of Florida's guys will get caught looking to make big plays on defense and get burned once or twice. I really believe Florida gets into the 40s, which means BG only has to find the end zone once for at least a push. BG has a little talent with Matt Schilz and Anthon Samuel. Samuel, a Florida native who should be jacked up to play in Gainesville, also likes to put the ball on the carpet. Could lead to some short fields for UF.

Boise/MSU u53.5 - This game may not even come close to that total. A lot of new guys on offense, both coaches will probably play this game pretty conservatively. Since MSU can't really spread the field out with a new QB and a bunch of inexperienced WRs, they'll run a lot and try and assert their dominance that way. Boise will keep their schemes simple with a lot of losses from last year's team. A very vanilla, boring game IMO.

Already played that Boise/Sparty under. Not even really close IMO. Would a 14-10 game surprise anyone?

Take note that Arizona does bring back QB Matt Scott, who they redshirted last year so he'd have the gig to himself this year. PERFECT fit to RichRod's offense as a mobile QB, and should shred the Toledo D. I think 7.5 is low, but have no clue how to buy a half on BOL, so I didn't touch it.