College Basketball Friday

[RyanParrill]

Todd Furhman tweeted earlier that he believes the UNC/MSU total would be 141. He later said some offshores are coming back with 135?

Any interest in it?

141 is way too high and I believe 135 is as well. No way can these kids adjust to this court/surroundings within 24 hours. Not only that, the Michigan State offense will not be flawless.

I'll post some more plays tomorrow that may be interesting. My long weekend has started, thanks to those who serve our country. So if you do serve or have, please speak up. You deserve some recognition tomorrow, like always.

[SkyBlues42]

1,545% of the public is already on UNC in this game

[Skating Tripods]

(11-10-2011 08:03 PM)RyanParrill Wrote:  My long weekend has started, thanks to those who serve our country. So if you do serve or have, please speak up. You deserve some recognition tomorrow, like always.

Absolutely echo this. A heartfelt thank you to anyone currently serving, has served or those who have had a loved one serve.

Nothing to add on CBB. Just wanted to agree with what Ryan said.

[jimmysingh9]

i dont know. i think this UNC team can put 90 points anywhere on any college bball team in the nation

[SkyBlues42]

(11-10-2011 10:37 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  i dont know. i think this UNC team can put 90 points anywhere on any college bball team in the nation

You're probably right. What do you think about the 10.5 spread?

I personally thought it would be less than double digits (had it at 9).

[mount187]

As much as I love UNC, I'm staying off the game tonight. My lean is toward the over, BUT when you play a fast-tempo game like the Heels do, sometimes it takes time for the fast breaks to get sorted. They could be in mid-season form (brought back the same team from last season), or they could have 18 TO's in the 1H. For my money, I'll probably hope for a low-scoring 1H, and then jump on the over for the 2H. If it's a shoot-out from the beginning I'll just sit back and enjoy some NCAAB.

*I would also say the same thing with the spread. If it's a sloppy 1H, but no real foul trouble for the Heels, I would take the 2H cover. If it's ~10 for the game and it's close going into the half, I'd take UNC as a -6/-7 in the 2H. The Heels will be in good condition, and I'm not sure MSU will be able to hang for the full 40. The key will be the break/secondary break. If the Heels are getting good looks and making good decisions, I'll be backing them 2H.

[Edit]: A few other points about the game. It's being played in San Diego, so UNC and MSU are both playing about as far away from home as they can get. Also, THE GAME IS SCHEDULED TO BE PLAYED ON THE DECK OF AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER! I can't believe they're a) playing on a boat and b) playing outside. It's epically awesome, but I'm worried about what happens if the weather changes. I know it's Always Sunny in [San Diego], but what if there are game-deciding FT's to shoot and a giant wind gust comes up? As Woody told us, "The wind can push the ball 6 to 8 inches.".

[mount187]

Who ya got?

[SkyBlues42]

The only concern with the over is that the game it on a ship/outdoors. Players may find it difficult to shoot with the wind and surroundings. What is the over?

Maybe I should have asked that first, since I'm sure the total accounts for the court conditions.

[mount187]

(11-11-2011 10:12 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  The only concern with the over is that the game it on a ship/outdoors. Players may find it difficult to shoot with the wind and surroundings. What is the over?

Maybe I should have asked that first, since I'm sure the total accounts for the court conditions.

SBR has the totals listed between 134.5 and 135.5.

[jimmysingh9]

(11-10-2011 10:43 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  

(11-10-2011 10:37 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  i dont know. i think this UNC team can put 90 points anywhere on any college bball team in the nation

You're probably right. What do you think about the 10.5 spread?

I personally thought it would be less than double digits (had it at 9).

Oh I think this is blowout central. I have this Mich St team as one of their worst in the past couple of years. Izzo is a factor, as he gets his teams to play better, but I believe tthis team will play better later on.

I think UNC wins this by 15-20 points at a minimum.

As for the shooting. its definately a problem if there is wind and off the coast, there probably will be. but UNC is loaded with big mean around the basket that can score. they dont rely on 3 point shooting

[SkyBlues42]

(11-11-2011 10:18 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Oh I think this is blowout central. I have this Mich St team as one of their worst in the past couple of years. Izzo is a factor, as he gets his teams to play better, but I believe tthis team will play better later on.

I think UNC wins this by 15-20 points at a minimum.

As for the shooting. its definately a problem if there is wind and off the coast, there probably will be. but UNC is loaded with big mean around the basket that can score. they dont rely on 3 point shooting

No argument there, with Michigan State. I think its a down year for them as well. Just didn't think the spread would be double digits with the game being played in such an unusual location. Too much uncertainty.

[kreatture]

(11-11-2011 10:18 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I think UNC wins this by 15-20 points at a minimum.

As for the shooting. its definately a problem if there is wind and off the coast, there probably will be. but UNC is loaded with big mean around the basket that can score. they dont rely on 3 point shooting

No, but MSU will be relying on the 3 in the 2nd Half if they've down, and that could result in an even bigger blowout if the wind is a problem, which it should be just a little.

I agree UNC should put this game away, but my concern is the players have stated about how great it is to play this game and it's only for the troops. UNC may let this stay close just for the entertainment of the troops there.

Correct play I think is UNC and Under, but with a game like this where there are other unknown factors involved, it's usually best to stay away. Because of the media hype and spotlight tho, it will be a heavily bet game.

I think there's better bets on the board today.

[Beyond the Bets]

Here is my take on this game with a few notes on handicapping the elements: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-4wx

[zman1415]

What else are you lookin at today Lucky?

[mount187]

I just made a play on Dook -11.5. I know Belmont is returning most of their scoring from last year, and they'are a good mid-major, but Belmont hanging with teams in the NCAA Tournament, and hanging with Dook @ Cameron are two totally different scenarios (the game is part of the Maui Invitational, but is being played @ Dook). Dook has a rotation of four bigs that are 6' 10" or taller, and one of them, Kelly, can step out and knock down the three with regularity. They're also bringing in Rivers, who I expect to have a near mirror-image start to the season that Irving did last year; he's 100% legit. Curry is also going to play a big role for them, and while he only averaged 9.0 a game last season, he shot 43.5% from three and is an 80% FT shooter. Belmont's game is based on creating bad shots and turnovers with pressure defense, and Dook eats those teams alive. Any time you come out and guard a Coach K team on the perimeter, you can expect them to get a lot of looks on back cuts, which means you're either going to give up easy buckets or Dook is going to make a lot of FT's. Either way, I expect Dook to win this going away. I also am not worried about the big spread late (like with Arizona), because the Dookies won't quit playing in front of their home fans, and they have a lot of very good FT shooters.

[jimmysingh9]

I think what we need to look at is who has more gangsta streetballers. these cats used to play in any elements and are used to the wind, the sun, the snow. the cracks on the court. :)

[mount187]

(11-11-2011 10:58 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I think what we need to look at is who has more gangsta streetballers. these cats used to play in any elements and are used to the wind, the sun, the snow. the cracks on the court. :)

I'm going to guess that the team that recruits from Detroit and Flint would have those honors ............. (no offense to anyone from Detroit or Flint, even though that was probably incredibly offensive).

[kreatture]

(11-11-2011 10:34 AM)zman1415 Wrote:  What else are you lookin at today Lucky?

Plowing through Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception for the next 6 hours..






Might place a bet, or 3, too.. been waiting all week for a college game tomorrow but may play 1 or 2 small tonight. Still looking at things as I enjoy my breakfast

[jimmysingh9]

I wonder if oregon being a 13 point dog at vandy is too much. I think oregon will be ok this year.

[mount187]

(11-11-2011 11:08 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I wonder if oregon being a 13 point dog at vandy is too much. I think oregon will be ok this year.

I always worry about teams traveling cross country. I'm not sure it really has an effect on college kids, but I'd be curious to know if it does. Maybe I should put that in the "Stuff you want to know ..." thread.