Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5

[Beyond the Bets]

Cowherd's top five college football picks for Saturday (http://wp.me/p1sRnX-312):

Northwestern +3 over Boston College
Western Michigan +14 over Michigan
Minnesota +23 over USC
Boise State -3 over Georgia
South Florida +11 over Notre Dame

Hate to say it, but I really like South Florida against Notre Dame. And, obviously, I'm already on record as saying that Boise State is my lead-pipe lock of the first week.

Thoughts on any of these games?

[vegasobie]

I've been hearing mixed things on Persa, so hard for me to pick the NU-BC game. If Persa is playing whole game, huge edge for the Wildcats, if not I'm just not sure.

I do like Minnesota with the points. Nothing about that game screams blowout city to me.

[RyanParrill]

Since I'm the Michigan expert I'll give my thoughts on his incorrect thoughts.

Cowherd’s analysis: Don’t kid yourselves. Michigan has a new coach, but I’m not giving up 14 points to anybody right now if I’m Michigan. And they’re giving up 14 points to Western Michigan. Toledo beat Michigan in ’08. MAC teams can play football. MAC teams put guys in the NFL. And Brady Hoke is a great new, young coach for Michigan. But this will be the fifth defense in five years, and he inherits Denard Robinson, a running quarterback, and he’s going to try to make him a passer.

But here’s the rub: Even though I think Michigan wins, Western Michigan has a quarterback, Alex Carter, who will get an NFL look. Completing 63 percent of his throws. He brings back nine of his top receivers from last year. So, even if they fall behind, they’ll do a great job of playing catch-up to a decimated Michigan secondary which lost two guys in the offseason.


1) Toledo did beat Michigan. Are we comparing 2008 Michigan with 2011 Michigan? Because if so, this team is heads and shoulders above the one from 2008.

2) Western Michigan does have a QB who will get an NFL look. He also plays in the MAC and not in the B1G. Colin's stats are a generalization of what Carder did last year, not what he did against quality opponents, which I gave you in my selection.

3) This is the best one. This statement is the reason I stopped watching ESPN if it wasn't a live game broadcast: "So, even if they fall behind, they’ll do a great job of playing catch-up to a decimated Michigan secondary which lost two guys in the offseason." So the Michigan secondary, which was terrible, lost 2 guys, so there'll be even worse, right? I'll let the truth be heard, "improvement is almost a given. It could be vast, even. Every contributor returns save James Rogers. Woolfolk is back and healthy, and there's a small horde of freshmen."

Cowherd also didn't tell you how terrible Cubit is against the spread, especially season openers. Or that Hoke and him have faced each other 4 times with Hoke getting the better of it 3 times.

This may come across with some anger. Definitely not intentional. I appreciate Cowherd and the inefficiencies he may create. If everyone had all the correct information, we'd lose our value!

[TuskTusk]

Regardless of whether he plays or not, RJ Bell not mentioning the Persa injury seemed like A BIT of an oversight?!

[ChiefZilla]

(09-02-2011 12:40 PM)TuskTusk Wrote:  Regardless of whether he plays or not, RJ Bell not mentioning the Persa injury seemed like A BIT of an oversight?!

I kept waiting for either one of them to mention it and then was like, "Whaaaaaa?"

[Beyond the Bets]

An oversight, yes, but to be fair, these are very short segments. You can't discuss everything.

[ChiefZilla]

(09-02-2011 12:43 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  An oversight, yes, but to be fair, these are very short segments. You can't discuss everything.

Point taken, but it doesn't take too long to say, "It's a much more risky pick given the uncertainty surrounding Dan Persa's status." Or something to that effect. Just a mention.

[NoOceanJustLakers]

(09-02-2011 12:48 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(09-02-2011 12:43 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  An oversight, yes, but to be fair, these are very short segments. You can't discuss everything.

Point taken, but it doesn't take too long to say, "It's a much more risky pick given the uncertainty surrounding Dan Persa's status." Or something to that effect. Just a mention.

From RJ's twitter:

"I agree 100%, Todd . . . but the segment is about either/or . . . hard to say BC is the sharp side with the line move IMO."

https://twitter.com/#!/RJinVegas/status/...3310150656

[TuskTusk]

Also him saying that public/square money moved USC from 21 up is a complete fallacy. The fact is that BetOnline and 5Dimes opened the first CFB lines early in a very small market and not a good number.

It wasn't until BM, Pinnacle and others were up that there was actually more liquidity in the market to get big bets down on USC. Square money is not moving lines that much period!

[Skating Tripods]

Northwestern +3 over Boston College

Like Northwestern, but a complete stay away game without Persa. Without Persa, though, I absolutely love u46.5. Lots of ground game from both teams.

Western Michigan +14 over Michigan

Michigan. Case of too much talent and athleticism. I think WMU keeps it a game early as Robinson adjusts to being more of a pocket passer, but Michigan blows it open late.

Minnesota +23 over USC

Torn here. Minnesota isn't really mobile at the tackle position with two 6'7" guys, and if MarQueis Grey is going to be a wildcat/option QB, he won't have a lot of lead blocking from those guys. They might seal the edges, but I wouldn't expect Minnesota's interior OL to have the speed to slow down USC's pursuit. Taking Grey out at WR, they have essentially one returning WR. USC could win this game running away. I'd lean USC.

Boise State -3 over Georgia

Boise answers the bell every time they're on the big stage. UGA's solid, Boise's better.

South Florida +11 over Notre Dame

At over 10, I like this number for USF. They have a pretty experienced team and a good kicker. It's critical to come away with points on the road every scoring opportunity you get (see the 2 missed FG for Wake yesterday). If USF gets to the 20s, I can't see ND running away and hiding.

[TuskTusk]

(09-02-2011 12:58 PM)NoOceanJustLakers Wrote:  

(09-02-2011 12:48 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(09-02-2011 12:43 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  An oversight, yes, but to be fair, these are very short segments. You can't discuss everything.

Point taken, but it doesn't take too long to say, "It's a much more risky pick given the uncertainty surrounding Dan Persa's status." Or something to that effect. Just a mention.

From RJ's twitter:

"I agree 100%, Todd . . . but the segment is about either/or . . . hard to say BC is the sharp side with the line move IMO."

https://twitter.com/#!/RJinVegas/status/...3310150656

The sharp side was definitely Northwestern to start, and maybe in discussing the big move down to BC -3, Persa was not relevant because it was assumed he was playing at the point those bets were made.