Chelsea anyone?

[arzoman]

I'm psyched for the game tomorrow, should be a lot of fun to watch. Fox broadcast 11:45am (west coast).

I'm thinking Chelsea pick +220. I think it's pretty good value, although I do think Munich will probably win, but they're such heavy favorites I can't bring myself to take them.

In all reality, I don't know much about soccer. Would love to hear opinions on this game from you guys. Or to quote a member of this forum who a few weeks ago started a thread with one single word....

discuss.

[GrandaddyCrunk]

To be honest everything points to Bayern here, but as a Spurs fan there is one particular thing that is keeping me away from wagering here...

Tottenham is just such an unlucky team. Only Spurs could finish fourth in a good season and then miss out on the UCL spots because an English team outside the top 4 wins it.

Add that in with the fact that Chelsea are an extremely lucky team, I am a bit worried for my beloved Tottenham.

Either way, DNB at +220 is huge value, this is a cup final and neither team will roll over.

o2.5 also looks a good shout, not only do they want to make this entertaining for the large audience that will tune in, but just looking at it both teams have fit attacking lineups and injured defenses.

[jimmysingh9]

fools money on Chelsea's IMO especially at the odds.


#1 this is a home game and 75%/25% tickets on Bayern and its their home field where they can just crush teams.

#2 Chelseas is missing so many players that are important to them, that they are literally fielding a 2nd team defense in this game. That is almost unheard of in a championship match. Bayern will have the majority of the possession and attack Chelsea, without a strong defense keeping them out, they will give up goals

#3 The only reason Chelsea got here was a little luck and a little great goaltending/defending. They held Barcelona defending for almost all of the 180 minutes of the leg match. They used their strength/speed to score their counters and that gives Barca problems. Problem is Bayern can match Chelsea is terms of physical ability. They play like a premier team with alot of skill. Think Man Utd in their glory days or Arsenal when they could come on your relentlessly and it would be hard to win on the road against them.


If Bayern was a huge favourite, I would say take a shot on Chelsea but it could happen but not a good bet. Bayern isnt that huge of a favourite.


Personally i played the ML at good odds and I also took Bayern -1 +165 which I think is better than DNB since I like Bayern alot. you could even go Bayern HT/Bayern FT for good odds, but scary if Chelsea can hold for 45 minutes.


Make no mistake, from the get go, Bayern is going to going at Chelsea for 75% of this game and Chelsea will generate minimal chances and have to score on those handful of attempts while Bayern will get about 20 chances to pop a goal in. Can Chelsea magical defending and goalie keep it up?

[SkyBlues42]

Is Malouda going to play? I know he was doubtful because of a hamstring issue.

[SkyBlues42]

Before I get going on this response, first let me say this: I'm not siding with Chelsea, in fact I'm not even making a play on this game. If I was, it would probably be the over 2.5 goals and that's it.

(05-19-2012 09:35 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  #2 Chelseas is missing so many players that are important to them, that they are literally fielding a 2nd team defense in this game. That is almost unheard of in a championship match. Bayern will have the majority of the possession and attack Chelsea, without a strong defense keeping them out, they will give up goals

Both teams are actually missing some talent, and yes, Chelsea took a larger hit than Bayern. But, they do (or should have) two players back -- Cahill and Luiz -- that will strengthen up the defense. Not by much, though.

(05-19-2012 09:35 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  #3 The only reason Chelsea got here was a little luck and a little great goaltending/defending. They held Barcelona defending for almost all of the 180 minutes of the leg match. They used their strength/speed to score their counters and that gives Barca problems. Problem is Bayern can match Chelsea is terms of physical ability. They play like a premier team with alot of skill. Think Man Utd in their glory days or Arsenal when they could come on your relentlessly and it would be hard to win on the road against them.

Agreed. Luck was a major factor in their run to the championship game. Also think it was just a matter of getting hot at the right time, too. A few of Chelsea's players were on the team that lost to Man U in the championship years ago. Whether or not their experience in a game like this will help, remains to be seen.

(05-19-2012 09:35 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Make no mistake, from the get go, Bayern is going to going at Chelsea for 75% of this game and Chelsea will generate minimal chances and have to score on those handful of attempts while Bayern will get about 20 chances to pop a goal in. Can Chelsea magical defending and goalie keep it up?

As strange as this might sound, I actually think that if Bayern is overly aggressive with its attack, Chelsea could benefit. Drogba is a monster up front, at least he has the ability to be one. And if Munich gets caught too high, he'll definitely net a goal or two with a quick transition.

Still, Bayern at Alliance Arena is nearly impossible to go against. And like Jimmy said, the value really isn't bad at all, considering they are playing a home game.

My suggestion: Sit back and enjoy the game.

[Beyond the Bets]

Great breakdown, JS.

[TheHandicaper]

I pointed out in another thread I have a Bayern future I picked up right before the semi-final that I don't plan on hedging.

Chelsea only won one game away on the entire CL season.
Bayern hasn't lost at home in the entire CL season. Haven't lost at home since the round of 16 last year Vs Inter Milan

Chelasea's missing players: John Terry, Ivanovic, Ramires y Meireles.
Bayern missing players: Gustavo Luiz, Alaba y Badstuber.

Chelsea took a much bigger hit. Those are, esencially, their 2 starting middle defenders. And both David Luis and Cahill will be coming off injuries. Robenn's speed might be too much for them.

Gustavo Luiz does worry me a bit. He is the pawn on this team, his sacrifice is often overlooked. We'll see how they can do without him.

As for the total, if I'd play anything, it would be the under 2.5. I really think Chelsea will pull the tank back, and try to get them on the counter attack, just like they played Barcelona (Though it will be very hard to do so without Ramires' speed). Actually think 1H U1 -110 might be worth a more serious look. Would be very hard to see 2 goals scored in the first half, while I'd tend to think no goals scored is no that crazy at all.

[TheHandicaper]

Paul Carr of ESPN: "Bayern Munich wins Champions League title in 85.5% of Soccer Power Index simulations. Home-field advantage is huge."


I really like the soccer power index. I think it's accuarate as hell.

-255 is a break even point just above 72%. So that would give you a 13% edge. I know a lot of you guys don't like eating that much juice at all, but again, wouldn't play Chelsea.

[GrandaddyCrunk]

Luiz Gustavo is replaceable, Schweinsteiger can operate more defensively and Kroos will play more of a deep lying position.

The biggest miss is Ramires, I hate him, but he is fantastic and he is what combines the midfield and attack for Chelsea. Lampard just doesn't have the legs to go up along side Drogba and divert attention.

Anyways, lineups...

Chelsea:

Drogba
Bertrand! - Mata - Kalou
Lampard - Mikel
Cole - Luiz - Cahill - Bosingwa
Cech

Gotta say, not impressed. I think Kalou is garbage, Bertrand is nothing special and just a desperate play. Bosingwa is horrible and that may be where the defense is unlocked. Apparently Luiz was fine at training but Cahill struggled a bit.

Bayern:

Gomez
Ribery - Muller - Robben
Schweinsteiger - Kroos
Contento - Boateng - Tymoschuk - Lahm
Neuer

Decent, defense is a bit of a worry though...Contento not gotten much play recently, Tymoschuk will have to play out of his skin, Boateng is solid enough. Lahm is a class above, he will have to be a leader tonight, which I know he can do. Schweinsteiger will be huge in helping the defense tonight. No worries up top.

Prediction:

Bayern 2-1 Chelsea

Let's hope for a classic.

[GrandaddyCrunk]

Fantastic read here...

http://www.zonalmarking.net/2012/05/18/b...l-preview/

[arzoman]

Good stuff guys. It seems like everyone and their families and extended families are on Bayern. Chelsea is now +390 ml. I realize this is like a home game for Bayern, but it's "like" a home game...it's not an actual home game. Having 25,000 Chelsea fans is enough for me to not put as much weight on the home factor as I normally would. The only time I've wagered on a Bayern game was back in Jan when they lost 3-1 to a team who's name I won't even bother to try and type. That was a huge ml win for me, and since I'm on a roll the past month, I'm going to play Chelsea ML, Chelsea pick +220 and Chelsea to win the thing "hoist the trophy" or whatever the technical verbiage is. I just think anything can happen in a championship game, and it's fun to root for the underdog. Either way it will be a fun game to watch!!

[jimmysingh9]

its a home game in every true sense. sure having that many chelsea fans is better but teams get allotted tickets in every game.

instead of betting -255.

bet Bayern -1 +150 and then you can get Bayern to win in extra time +1144 and Bayern to win in penalties +1124

[Wiseguy]

Jimmy I like that play. Not a soccer expert by any means, I see a lot of square money on Chelsea though.

[arzoman]

(05-19-2012 12:46 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  its a home game in every true sense. sure having that many chelsea fans is better but teams get allotted tickets in every game.

instead of betting -255.

bet Bayern -1 +150 and then you can get Bayern to win in extra time +1144 and Bayern to win in penalties +1124

Therein lies the one thing that stinks about my offshore...they never have those types of bets available.

   

[jimmysingh9]

arzoman,

i would take bayern -1 +145 to be honest. I just can't touch Chelsea with that lineup and the other advantages.

betting Bayern -1 wouldn't be a bad bet win or lose in my mind.

[SkyBlues42]

(05-19-2012 12:53 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  Jimmy I like that play. Not a soccer expert by any means, I see a lot of square money on Chelsea though.

How do you determine which money on Chelsea is square? Or is this based on picks from people you know?

[Wiseguy]

People i know. A guy who has hit 2me out if 10 nba playoff games is on Chelsea. Again i dont play soccer really.

[Wiseguy]

I certainly dont mean to insult anyone btw. It could very well hit

[arzoman]

(05-19-2012 01:02 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  arzoman,

i would take bayern -1 +145 to be honest. I just can't touch Chelsea with that lineup and the other advantages.

betting Bayern -1 wouldn't be a bad bet win or lose in my mind.

Oh man, now I'm really on the fence. Jimmy, the thing I don't like about the -1 is that I'm starting the game behind by one goal. If Chelsea gets a lucky early goal, I'll feel like i'm toast. Also if I take Bayern now and Chelsea ends up winning, I'm going to be kicking myself! I just feel like putting $60 on Chelsea ml to win $240 makes the game a lot of fun, as opposed to taking Bayern -1 $60 to win $87. I respect all of you guys and have loyalty to this forum, which alone makes me want to take Bayern, but again this is just purely a "for fun" wager. I really do appreciate the feedback, but I'm going to just go with Chelsea and see what happens. Also, I know this means absolutely nothing, but for what it's worth 34% of the ESPN Streak players are on Chelsea. (yes, yes, I know, quoting the streak for the cash percentage is a pure desperation move)

[SkyBlues42]

(05-19-2012 01:24 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  I certainly dont mean to insult anyone btw. It could very well hit

I didn't take it as that, at all. I would personally stay away from the game. Only thing I sorta like is the Over 2.5 goals. Was just curious. I know some people will judge the sharp-public money based on action. Soccer might be more difficult to judge, which is why I was asking.

To be honest, my initial thought was that it did involve people you knew. I know a few people who are pretty terrible at betting on sports. If they like a play, chances are, the opposite side is hitting.

There are even days where I can look at a card and guess -- with great confidence -- which side they'll be playing. For example.. one friend is a Yankee fan. If CC is pitching, it doesn't matter who they are playing, where they are playing, whether or not he's coming off short rest, long rest. He's playing the Yankees. [Square].