Challenge!

[RyanParrill]

I'd like to start a little experiment until the end of January, if a few people are interested. If not, I'll just update this again with my results. We all have weaknesses and from time-to-time they tend to creep back into betting. The last 3 nights I've watched a CFB 50-yd FG [ML], a 37-yd TD with 2 minutes left in a game where the team was down 27 [2nd half U23], and a straight ass-beating [Pitt in 2nd leg of bet] take what could have been a 'memorable' weekend and turn it into a 'slightly profitable' one. But those things happen, so what could be done?

1) I will not place a bet on the ML within 24 hours before kickoff
2) I will not sit myself directly on the opposite side of So_Money
3) I will not let my bet 'ride' when I can lock in a profit with the chance of a middle

Of course, there's going to be a million other factors that determine success/failure over the next ~40 days. But eliminating some of my other negative tendencies has allowed me to progress instead of regress.

[SkyBlues42]

(12-20-2011 10:32 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  I'd like to start a little experiment until the end of January, if a few people are interested. If not, I'll just update this again with my results. We all have weaknesses and from time-to-time they tend to creep back into betting. The last 3 nights I've watched a CFB 50-yd FG [ML], a 37-yd TD with 2 minutes left in a game where the team was down 27 [2nd half U23], and a straight ass-beating [Pitt in 2nd leg of bet] take what could have been a 'memorable' weekend and turn it into a 'slightly profitable' one. But those things happen, so what could be done?

1) I will not place a bet on the ML within 24 hours before kickoff
2) I will not sit myself directly on the opposite side of So_Money
3) I will not let my bet 'ride' when I can lock in a profit with the chance of a middle

Of course, there's going to be a million other factors that determine success/failure over the next ~40 days. But eliminating some of my other negative tendencies has allowed me to progress instead of regress.

#3 is key. Why not take the money and run. Greed can be a bad thing. I've definitely done this a time or two (or three).

[The Peoples Champ]

This is fascinating, and I think all of us could benefit from this. I'll check back in once I get some work done to post my "challenge."

[KepowOb]

I think giving yourself rules to work by are really important when it comes to gambling. If you don't have any, or you only follow them loosely, it becomes really easy to throw your money away.

I think most of us have some rules we follow (such as BR management) that we do without really thinking of them as rules, but from time to time it's important to realize when you're getting carried away with things and making dumb bets.

I think it's great that you've outlined some temporary restraits for yourself Ryan. When a few things go badly it becomes so easy to go on tilt and just start throwing money away.

[kreatture]

(12-20-2011 10:32 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  2) I will not sit myself directly on the opposite side of So_Money
3) I will not let my bet 'ride' when I can lock in a profit with the chance of a middle

I had +8 Units pending last night with a Pittsburgh +9 result, and I 'let it ride' instead of locking in +4 to +5 Units of guaranteed profit by taking SF -1.5, with a huge middle.. even after a lengthy discussion with So Money on the game. I'm a huge idiot.

The last 7 times I've been on the opposite side of So Money, I was right on 6 of them.. should have known the odds would catch up and be against me, haha.

I announced last night I would be taking the rest of the year off. I'm just way too busy with way too much going on in my personal life right now to put the dedicated time into capping like I used to do.
I'll still check in on the forum here and read some of the threads, cuz I really like it here, but I won't be trying to squeeze capping games into my already tight schedule.

My challenge will be to not log into my Pinnacle account and not check out game previews during the holidays so I'm not tempted to make a weak bet that I haven't fully capped. I'll only make a bet if I become aware of a certain situation or an information tip on a certain game, which warrants a large bet.

It's tough to swallow pride and take the big loss this month, but I feel if I continue only half studying games and making unsure bets then that hole will just get deeper. I can admit defeat at the moment, enjoy my holidays, and be back stronger in the new year.

Good Luck on your own Challenge, Ryan, and everyone else. It's important to know where you want to end up, before you can begin to plan your journey.. and sometimes you have to take one step back in order to take ten steps forward.

[RyanB]

(12-20-2011 10:32 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  I'd like to start a little experiment until the end of January, if a few people are interested. If not, I'll just update this again with my results. We all have weaknesses and from time-to-time they tend to creep back into betting. The last 3 nights I've watched a CFB 50-yd FG [ML], a 37-yd TD with 2 minutes left in a game where the team was down 27 [2nd half U23], and a straight ass-beating [Pitt in 2nd leg of bet] take what could have been a 'memorable' weekend and turn it into a 'slightly profitable' one. But those things happen, so what could be done?

1) I will not place a bet on the ML within 24 hours before kickoff
2) I will not sit myself directly on the opposite side of So_Money
3) I will not let my bet 'ride' when I can lock in a profit with the chance of a middle

Of course, there's going to be a million other factors that determine success/failure over the next ~40 days. But eliminating some of my other negative tendencies has allowed me to progress instead of regress.

Digging the idea! This would be part of my "New Years betting un-resolutions" segment on a podcast (hint hint).

Everyone tries to have goals that they usually end up fucking-off by Jan 15th but when there's money on the line the carrot is a little easier to see.

Let us know how it goes and if you're tempted to break any of them.

[MIchael M]

Love the idea as well. I bet mostly NFL and have tracked all my picks, and have noticed tendencies in good and bad weeks. NFL only for me, thats all I bet so far. Looking forward to digging into some CBB though.

1) I will not bet road favorites over 3 pts. (NFL)
2) I will not bet over 4 NFL games in one week, just not that much weekly value in the nfl as far as I can find
3) I will not parlay games when I should be playing indvidually
4) Free picks are worth exactly what you pay for them, trust yourself

I have had terrible weeks breaking these rules, and amazing weeks turned average.

[tgaubfan7]

(12-20-2011 03:49 PM)Mr Lucky Wrote:  

(12-20-2011 10:32 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  2) I will not sit myself directly on the opposite side of So_Money
3) I will not let my bet 'ride' when I can lock in a profit with the chance of a middle

I had +8 Units pending last night with a Pittsburgh +9 result, and I 'let it ride' instead of locking in +4 to +5 Units of guaranteed profit by taking SF -1.5, with a huge middle.. even after a lengthy discussion with So Money on the game. I'm a huge idiot.

The last 7 times I've been on the opposite side of So Money, I was right on 6 of them.. should have known the odds would catch up and be against me, haha.

I announced last night I would be taking the rest of the year off. I'm just way too busy with way too much going on in my personal life right now to put the dedicated time into capping like I used to do.
I'll still check in on the forum here and read some of the threads, cuz I really like it here, but I won't be trying to squeeze capping games into my already tight schedule.

My challenge will be to not log into my Pinnacle account and not check out game previews during the holidays so I'm not tempted to make a weak bet that I haven't fully capped. I'll only make a bet if I become aware of a certain situation or an information tip on a certain game, which warrants a large bet.

It's tough to swallow pride and take the big loss this month, but I feel if I continue only half studying games and making unsure bets then that hole will just get deeper. I can admit defeat at the moment, enjoy my holidays, and be back stronger in the new year.

Good Luck on your own Challenge, Ryan, and everyone else. It's important to know where you want to end up, before you can begin to plan your journey.. and sometimes you have to take one step back in order to take ten steps forward.

I understand how you can hedge your bet hoping that it hits between the two different lines you get.... is that what you mean when you say guarantee X amount of units or am I missing something?

[Beyond the Bets]

Interested observer; unwilling participant.

[RyanParrill]

As a quick side note - perhaps I should have labeled my news rules '4-5-6' because here are my 3 original rules.

1) Bet more underdogs than favorites (This is completely personal preference but one of the first things I started to do was divorce myself from the favorite and 'hook-up' with the points)
2) Don't bet parlays (No matter how many winning tickets are posted here-Playing parlays is not what my bankroll needs-Teasers are different)
3) Re-live your play (After every play I conclude if that was intelligent, lucky, or plain stupid-along with a couple other conclusions)

(12-20-2011 05:34 PM)RyanB Wrote:  Let us know how it goes and if you're tempted to break any of them.

I wanted to post this last night but I wasn't able too. It may sound like hogwash but I selected "FIU -190" and looked at it. Thought about this thread and decided to stick with my card.



Just like that, an avoided loss is as good as a win.

[RyanB]

(12-21-2011 09:33 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  

(12-20-2011 05:34 PM)RyanB Wrote:  Let us know how it goes and if you're tempted to break any of them.

I wanted to post this last night but I wasn't able too. It may sound like hogwash but I selected "FIU -190" and looked at it. Thought about this thread and decided to stick with my card.



Just like that, an avoided loss is as good as a win.

At -190 juice it's almost like 2 wins!

[victortrash]

(12-20-2011 10:32 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  I'd like to start a little experiment until the end of January, if a few people are interested. If not, I'll just update this again with my results. We all have weaknesses and from time-to-time they tend to creep back into betting. The last 3 nights I've watched a CFB 50-yd FG [ML], a 37-yd TD with 2 minutes left in a game where the team was down 27 [2nd half U23], and a straight ass-beating [Pitt in 2nd leg of bet] take what could have been a 'memorable' weekend and turn it into a 'slightly profitable' one. But those things happen, so what could be done?

1) I will not place a bet on the ML within 24 hours before kickoff
2) I will not sit myself directly on the opposite side of So_Money
3) I will not let my bet 'ride' when I can lock in a profit with the chance of a middle

Of course, there's going to be a million other factors that determine success/failure over the next ~40 days. But eliminating some of my other negative tendencies has allowed me to progress instead of regress.

Absolutely #3 is the most dangerous. Especially when there's a hot girl with a low cropped shirt at the other end of the craps table egging you on.

[mount187]

Mr. Lucky beat me to the punch, but I'm taking off until at least the first of the year as well. Too much time running around, and not enough time to focus. I'm not willing to continue flushing my bankroll, just because I feel like I should be betting. I'm still checking the boards, and still trying to gather information, but I don't have the time to put in the work I need to. I also need a mental health break. When I'm at my best, I'm really digging into numbers and gathering a ton of information, and I'm just burned out. Sounds weird to be taking a vacation from something that's supposed to be a hobby, but it is what it is.

I haven't made a bet in almost 48 hours, and the feeling of "I need to check the lines for [blah]." has slowly started to fade into, "I needed this break. This feels great." I've slept like a champ for two days straight, and hopefully I'll be able to mix in some more exercise and a better diet as well. The good news is that I'm already feeling rejuvenated, so I should be able to come back strong once NCAAB conference plays starts. I don't know why it's never crossed my mind, but taking a vacation from work always makes me a little more focused when I get back; just never though of doing the same with betting.

Good luck to everyone still grinding. See you on the other side of the new year!