CFBall week 6 - underdog with best chance to win outright

[@oconnellp]

Couple games stood out this week.
- San Jose +13.5 @ BYU. BYU has been asking to get beat at home the last 3 games and pulling the last 2 wins out of their ass when playing like crap vs. UCF and Utah St. San Jose has played everyone on their schedule close besides Stanford, and I at least look for them to cover for sure. BYU with significant issues at QB.
- Iowa +4 @ Penn ST. I think everyone is already on this one
- East Carolina +10 @ Hou. Houston is playing with house money at this point, and have been lucky not to run into anyone who can match them score for score because they refuse to play defense. East Carolina can keep up.
- Texas Tech +9 (+320) vs Texas ATM. Hmmm, all you need to know about Tech is they have at least 1 upset at home every year without fail. The only other game this year they probably will not be favored at home is the OKLA ST game and i dont see that happening. Throw on top of that its a night game in Lubbock, a bitter rivalry that will probably end after this meeting, and Tech getting its best defensive player back from suspension. Tech either wins this outright, or gets blown out because the defense is truly awful. Sooooooo much value on that money line though.

[Weebay]

Northwestern +7.5
Seems impossible right? Wrong, Michigan has been taking horrible teams to the shed this season. I understand they have played good defense against bad teams, Northwestern is the best team they have faced since Notre Dame, and lets face it Notre Dame beat themselves in that game. Look for Dan Persa to have his way this secondary. Another team that had their only quality win over Notre Dame was South Florida, and we saw what happened to them.

[Beyond the Bets]

Pretty interesting one. Can't say I'd feel comfortable going against Michigan in this spot, at least not on the outright, but I do think that number looks a bit inflated.

[brinksta]

This Texas Tech defense is the worst they have had in at least 5 years...seriously. Maybe the worst offense in 5 also.

[RyanParrill]

(10-06-2011 06:36 AM)Weebay Wrote:  Northwestern +7.5
Seems impossible right? Wrong, Michigan has been taking horrible teams to the shed this season. I understand they have played good defense against bad teams, Northwestern is the best team they have faced since Notre Dame, and lets face it Notre Dame beat themselves in that game. Look for Dan Persa to have his way this secondary. Another team that had their only quality win over Notre Dame was South Florida, and we saw what happened to them.

This is interesting. You may very well have an argument. My only suggestion, if you're going to pick Michigan to be upset, offer a solution for the opposing team to slow down Denard. That's where Northwestern has their problem.

Persa is a great QB. And he may be able to orchestrate an upset against anyone in the B1G. But Michigan has faced Carder-Rees-Lindley, so there is some experience, and success, against quality quarterback play.

7.5 is a lot of points, if that entices some. Don't worry, I won't play douche the whole day. I'll offer a few games later I believe qualify for this thread.

[@oconnellp]

(10-06-2011 08:49 AM)brinksta Wrote:  This Texas Tech defense is the worst they have had in at least 5 years...seriously. Maybe the worst offense in 5 also.

Agreed the defense is a walking instructional video on how not to tackle or defend the run. They get a lot of guys back this week they haven't had this year. Disagree about the offense. Taylor Potts was the worse QB of the Leach era, Doege so much better running the offense. This years O has many more playmakers than the last two years.

[Weebay]

(10-06-2011 09:01 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 06:36 AM)Weebay Wrote:  Northwestern +7.5
Seems impossible right? Wrong, Michigan has been taking horrible teams to the shed this season. I understand they have played good defense against bad teams, Northwestern is the best team they have faced since Notre Dame, and lets face it Notre Dame beat themselves in that game. Look for Dan Persa to have his way this secondary. Another team that had their only quality win over Notre Dame was South Florida, and we saw what happened to them.

This is interesting. You may very well have an argument. My only suggestion, if you're going to pick Michigan to be upset, offer a solution for the opposing team to slow down Denard. That's where Northwestern has their problem.

Persa is a great QB. And he may be able to orchestrate an upset against anyone in the B1G. But Michigan has faced Carder-Rees-Lindley, so there is some experience, and success, against quality quarterback play.

7.5 is a lot of points, if that entices some. Don't worry, I won't play douche the whole day. I'll offer a few games later I believe qualify for this thread.

Make Shoelace throw, easier said than done. There is no arguing that he is one of the worst passing quarterbacks in football. Before last weeks impressive performance against Minnesota, he was completing 50 percent of his throws.

IF they can slow the run down they will have a chance, I said this before, I am not sold on Michigan's defense. Dan Persa is head and shoulders above Tommy Rees as a qb.

[RyanParrill]

(10-06-2011 09:45 AM)Weebay Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 09:01 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 06:36 AM)Weebay Wrote:  Northwestern +7.5
Seems impossible right? Wrong, Michigan has been taking horrible teams to the shed this season. I understand they have played good defense against bad teams, Northwestern is the best team they have faced since Notre Dame, and lets face it Notre Dame beat themselves in that game. Look for Dan Persa to have his way this secondary. Another team that had their only quality win over Notre Dame was South Florida, and we saw what happened to them.

This is interesting. You may very well have an argument. My only suggestion, if you're going to pick Michigan to be upset, offer a solution for the opposing team to slow down Denard. That's where Northwestern has their problem.

Persa is a great QB. And he may be able to orchestrate an upset against anyone in the B1G. But Michigan has faced Carder-Rees-Lindley, so there is some experience, and success, against quality quarterback play.

7.5 is a lot of points, if that entices some. Don't worry, I won't play douche the whole day. I'll offer a few games later I believe qualify for this thread.

Make Shoelace throw, easier said than done. There is no arguing that he is one of the worst passing quarterbacks in football. Before last weeks impressive performance against Minnesota, he was completing 50 percent of his throws.

IF they can slow the run down they will have a chance, I said this before, I am not sold on Michigan's defense. Dan Persa is head and shoulders above Tommy Rees as a qb.

What is it about Michigan's defense that you're not sold on? It isn't the coaching staff. You feel like the players were terrible in the past, probably can't improve a lot in 9 months? Depth concerns? Thanks for the feedback Weebay.

[Weebay]

(10-06-2011 10:43 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 09:45 AM)Weebay Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 09:01 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 06:36 AM)Weebay Wrote:  Northwestern +7.5
Seems impossible right? Wrong, Michigan has been taking horrible teams to the shed this season. I understand they have played good defense against bad teams, Northwestern is the best team they have faced since Notre Dame, and lets face it Notre Dame beat themselves in that game. Look for Dan Persa to have his way this secondary. Another team that had their only quality win over Notre Dame was South Florida, and we saw what happened to them.

This is interesting. You may very well have an argument. My only suggestion, if you're going to pick Michigan to be upset, offer a solution for the opposing team to slow down Denard. That's where Northwestern has their problem.

Persa is a great QB. And he may be able to orchestrate an upset against anyone in the B1G. But Michigan has faced Carder-Rees-Lindley, so there is some experience, and success, against quality quarterback play.

7.5 is a lot of points, if that entices some. Don't worry, I won't play douche the whole day. I'll offer a few games later I believe qualify for this thread.

Make Shoelace throw, easier said than done. There is no arguing that he is one of the worst passing quarterbacks in football. Before last weeks impressive performance against Minnesota, he was completing 50 percent of his throws.

IF they can slow the run down they will have a chance, I said this before, I am not sold on Michigan's defense. Dan Persa is head and shoulders above Tommy Rees as a qb.

What is it about Michigan's defense that you're not sold on? It isn't the coaching staff. You feel like the players were terrible in the past, probably can't improve a lot in 9 months? Depth concerns? Thanks for the feedback Weebay.

I do not think they are that talented. I watched Notre Dame drive up and down the field against them at will. I watched Western Michigan move the ball at will against them. If anyone wants to doubt this please look at the drive chart against Western Michigan. I believe the coaching staff is greatly improved. Shutting down Minnesota and Eastern Michigan does not impress me, sorry it just doesnt. Please do not say "Well Minnesota gave USC a good game." USC has a horrible defense and it showed the last two weeks, giving up 70 some points.

WMU yards per pass - 5.9
Notre Dame yards per pass - 8.1
SDST yards per pass - 5.3

I believe Dan Persa is a better qb than the group mentioned above. This why I believe they have a shot to win this game.

[louiemdj]

Suprised no one has mentioned K-State, Utah, Washington St, and maybe even Auburn as a DD dog.

[FakePatObrien]

(10-06-2011 11:11 AM)Weebay Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 10:43 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 09:45 AM)Weebay Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 09:01 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 06:36 AM)Weebay Wrote:  Northwestern +7.5
Seems impossible right? Wrong, Michigan has been taking horrible teams to the shed this season. I understand they have played good defense against bad teams, Northwestern is the best team they have faced since Notre Dame, and lets face it Notre Dame beat themselves in that game. Look for Dan Persa to have his way this secondary. Another team that had their only quality win over Notre Dame was South Florida, and we saw what happened to them.

This is interesting. You may very well have an argument. My only suggestion, if you're going to pick Michigan to be upset, offer a solution for the opposing team to slow down Denard. That's where Northwestern has their problem.

Persa is a great QB. And he may be able to orchestrate an upset against anyone in the B1G. But Michigan has faced Carder-Rees-Lindley, so there is some experience, and success, against quality quarterback play.

7.5 is a lot of points, if that entices some. Don't worry, I won't play douche the whole day. I'll offer a few games later I believe qualify for this thread.

Make Shoelace throw, easier said than done. There is no arguing that he is one of the worst passing quarterbacks in football. Before last weeks impressive performance against Minnesota, he was completing 50 percent of his throws.

IF they can slow the run down they will have a chance, I said this before, I am not sold on Michigan's defense. Dan Persa is head and shoulders above Tommy Rees as a qb.

What is it about Michigan's defense that you're not sold on? It isn't the coaching staff. You feel like the players were terrible in the past, probably can't improve a lot in 9 months? Depth concerns? Thanks for the feedback Weebay.

I do not think they are that talented. I watched Notre Dame drive up and down the field against them at will. I watched Western Michigan move the ball at will against them. If anyone wants to doubt this please look at the drive chart against Western Michigan. I believe the coaching staff is greatly improved. Shutting down Minnesota and Eastern Michigan does not impress me, sorry it just doesnt. Please do not say "Well Minnesota gave USC a good game." USC has a horrible defense and it showed the last two weeks, giving up 70 some points.

WMU yards per pass - 5.9
Notre Dame yards per pass - 8.1
SDST yards per pass - 5.3

I believe Dan Persa is a better qb than the group mentioned above. This why I believe they have a shot to win this game.

Anyone know how good the depth at RB is for NW? Losing Trumpy scares me a little

[brinksta]

(10-06-2011 09:36 AM)@oconnellp Wrote:  

(10-06-2011 08:49 AM)brinksta Wrote:  This Texas Tech defense is the worst they have had in at least 5 years...seriously. Maybe the worst offense in 5 also.

Agreed the defense is a walking instructional video on how not to tackle or defend the run. They get a lot of guys back this week they haven't had this year. Disagree about the offense. Taylor Potts was the worse QB of the Leach era, Doege so much better running the offense. This years O has many more playmakers than the last two years.

They had a better running game with Potts though.

[RyanParrill]

I'm on...
Ball State +11 - I believe this was a good opportunity to take a decent Ball State team at home, the line move has agreed with me.
Rutgers +9 - Taking some frustration out on Pitt from last week, 9 seemed high and line move agrees.
SDSU +4 - I like SDSU coming off of a bye and TCU doesn't seem to be quite as good in years past. Can get a better number now.
K State +3 - I'll ride the Snyder train. Unfortunately, I'm not sitting in the cheapest seat.
Iowa +4 - This one doesn't make much sense to me. I believe Iowa has improved while Penn State still has some instability. And I'm selling Joe/Jay Paterno.

I'm considering...
Idaho +4 - I think this is a decent opportunity with Idaho getting over a field goal. La Tech had a letdown against Hawaii after a tough OT loss Miss St. Now they travel to Idaho.
Indiana +14.5 - This seems like a lot of points to give Illinois for their first road game and I'd like to believe Indiana is improving each week. Perhaps, this is a stretch.
I'd like another to consider as well....

[FakePatObrien]

I think Wyoming has a good shot to win outright as well. Luck hasn't exactly been on Utah St.'s side this year