CFB Experts Week 9

[omgkyleflavin]

Michigan State +4 -110
Marshall -6 -110
Louisville -3

[ChiefZilla]

Apologies for the very, very late write-up but I'll take Mizzou +10.5 at Texas A&M today. I think the talent is equal enough on both sides for the Tigers to keep this one close, but I don't expect an outright victory.

Score prediction: A&M 35, Mizzou 31

[Sandlapper]

Clemson @ Georgia Tech(+3.5)

Everything points to the fact that GT should cover this game. GT and Clemson always play tight. Most of the games in the last decade have been decided by 5 points or less. GT runs the triple option which Clemson has struggled with in the past, including against Wofford earlier this year. Clemson has struggled tackling this entire season. All of this says I should pick GT today, but just like last week I'm going to stop going against the Tigers until they prove me wrong.

Clemson 40 - GT 34

THE PLAY - CLEMSON -3.5

[Skating Tripods]

Matchup: South Carolina @ Tennessee
Line: Tennessee +4
Weather: Sunny, mid 50s

South Carolina enters this game off a bye week but also enters it without their best player, star RB Marcus Lattimore. Tennessee also enters without their best player, QB Tyler Bray, but has played with Bray once this season already. The Gamecocks have not played without Lattimore this year, but did last season.

Tennessee hung with Alabama for a half last week before getting drubbed 31-0 in the 2nd half en route to losing 37-6. South Carolina's last game was a gutsy road win over Mississippi State.

Why South Carolina will cover: Tennessee is uncertain of who will start at QB but indications early in the week were that they may opt for true freshman Justin Worley. The strength of South Carolina has been their defense and if Taurean Poole can't be a factor, the defense could get after Worley, or Matt Simms, depending on who starts.

Why Tennessee will cover: Life without Lattimore won't be pretty for the Gamecocks. Alshon Jeffery will be working against blanket coverage all game and no true #2 WR has emerged yet. With a bit of a breather, Tennessee can focus on this game to try and get a better bowl. They should win six no matter what.

Pick: South Carolina 20 - Tennessee 17 (TENN +4)

I look for a low scoring, turnover-filled game with at least one, if not two, special teams/defensive TDs.

[vegasobie]

The Game: Colorado State @ UNLV, 3:00 PST
The Line: Colorado State -2.5

This seems to be a common theme with games involving UNLV, but what an awful game. Both of these teams stink. Entering this game, these teams are a combined 2-10-1 ATS. CSU is coming off a loss SU and ATS against UTEP while the Rebels are coming off a bye. Don't get fooled into thinking a bye gives UNLV any type of advantage. This is the Rebels second bye in three weeks, and they lost 37-0 to Nevada coming off of the first bye.

Both teams have played schedules that are very similar to one another, but CSU has found 3 SU wins on the year while UNLV is still stuck at 1. Both teams were hammered by the top team on the schedule, UNLV @ Wisconsin and CSU vs. Boise. Both teams have lost to a PAC 12 team, UNLV @ Washington State and CSU vs. rival Colorado. There really is nothing that leads me to liking one team over the other based on what has happened this season. Looking at past history of these schools, CSU has dominated winning 8 of the past 10, however UNLV won the last time the teams met in Vegas, 35-16 as a 1 point favorite.

The talk around town is squarely focused on UNLV basketball with a new coach and era about to begin at Thomas & Mack. I actually think this could help the Rebels football program for this week. Despite being horrendous, nobody is paying attention or putting any pressure on Coach Hauck and his staff. With two weeks to prepare, I actually expect UNLV to come out and play their best game since they upset Hawaii (cough, cough). I still don't think it'll be enough, however, as Colorado State will be good enough to win and cover.

Score: Colorado State 31 Unlv 27
THE PLAY: COLORADO STATE -2.5

[HujoTDs]

Spread: Kansas at Texas -28

Texas is coming off a bye. Texas historically is great coming off the bye and played their best game of te year earlier this season at Iowa State coming off the bye. Being a young team with freshman listed atop the passing, rushing, and receiving lists an extra week to prepare means a lot. All that said Kansas playing Oklhoma scrappy is what makes me most nervous. I think Texas will put forth a great effort but 28 pts is too much. For reference that's more than they even had to lay against Rice.


Pick: Kansas +28

[PetyrBaelishBets]

(10-25-2011 02:19 PM)cmpicks Wrote:  Didn't see a thread, so started a new one.

Just a quick post to lock in a line, will do further write-up earlier in the week.

Pick: Georgia -2.5 vs Florida (neutral-site game).

My guess is line will only go up. Word on the street that good chance Brantley won't play again (if that is ever confirmed in media, line certainly moves up to 4.5 or even 6). Less than 3 is steal. Take it now.

EDIT - Sat 10/29, 11:05 am -- Editing to add write-up, etc.

As you'll see above, I'm on the Dawgs. My Brantley update is that he'll probably play, but isn't 100%, probably still hampered by high ankle sprain.
I still like the Georgia pick, however. Not too much to say here, but Georgia is clicking on all cylinders, and Florida is, well, Florida.

I will add one prop I like (from Bet Online): Aaron Murray -22.5 passing yds vs. Florida QBs. Even assuming Brantley is 100%, I'd like this -- Florida doesn't throw for that many yards.

Forgot to add the R/W last time -- we'll go R330/W300.

Total is 48.5; I'd probably lean under, don't feel great.
Score Prediction: Georgia 24, Florida 13.

Sorry for a less than stellar breakdown, quite busy this week, but take the Dawgs or stay away. I can't imagine Florida +3 being +EV.

Good luck all!

Malcolm Mitchell being out for GA affect anything today?

[Spburn2]

Game: Mississippis State 3-4 (0-4 sec) @ Kentucky 3-4 (0-3 sec)
Line: Miss St -10
7 PM ET

Miss St has underperformed this year as there were high expectations for QB Chris Relf and his teammates back in August. And now midseason, Relf has been benched and Russell got the start in their last game against South Carolina. Russell didn't play well ( 11-29 165yds 1td 2int) but it looks as though he will get the start again today. Look for Miss St to run the ball a lot today and probably go over their season avg of 180 yards/game on the ground.

Miss St's real impact will come from their defense that only gives up 19 points/game. UK had its breakout game offensively last week, but it came against an FCS opponent. Look for UK's offense to return to their struggling ways against Miss St's stingy defense.

UK is trying to get the fans amped up for the night game by making it a "Blackout" and having the team wear new black uniforms. Although I think UK fans are like UNC's, and already looking around the corner to basketball season.

I think this game will be won/lost on the ground and that both quarterbacks will struggle, and Miss St is better suited for that battle.

Prediction: Miss St 24 - UK 10
Play: Miss St - 10 and under 42

[sabres916]

UB Expert. 6-1.

Once again almost forgot. Game in an hour.


UB is getting 5.5 on road from Miami OH. Think the Bulls will be deflated from last weeks heartbreak. They have also been awful on the Road.


play MIA OH -5.5

[greylorn]

Game: Hawaii (-7) @ Idaho (O/U: 55.5)

Some minor RLM on this game, as Hawaii is (as usual) punching 80+% of tickets, but the line has moved from 8.0 down to 7.0 (and 7.0 +100 at some offshore sites).

Looking back though, it seems this is beyond commonplace for Idaho home games. Nearly every single home games has had RLM in Idaho's favor.

This is likely due to the crappy commute to the Kibbie Dome. Fly into Washington state, then bus the rest of the way there. It's actually a longer bus ride than the trip to Ruston is.

That being said, the good HFA has actually meant very little to Idaho this year, as they are just not very good this year.

The book on Idaho seems consistent from game to game:

- Idaho has a decent defense. However, they are better against power/middle offenses (see: Virginia), and not quite as good against pass-happy/spread offenses (see: Fresno, NMSU).

- Idaho has a poor offense. Against Div-A opponents, Idaho has NOT scored more than 24 points in any game this year. (And that's in the WAC.)


All these things point to the line move as an overreaction to HFA and Hawaii's nightmare game at SJSU.

One factor in Idaho's favor would be the general health of Hawaii's team. Hawaii has the majority of the starters back and expected to play, but many are not fully healthy, and maybe more importantly, there are a number of backups that are out for the season -- so Hawaii's depth is poor at this point of the season.

As a result, expect Hawaii to get J. Iosefa involved on the road, and expect him to be very effective in this game.


Final Score: Hawaii 38, Idaho 21

Plays: Hawaii -7.0 (medium), Hawaii/Idaho O55.5 (small)

[inlikeflinn]

Game: Ole Miss at Auburn, 7pm ET
Line: Auburn -13

I'm really late on this, so I'll make it quick. I like Auburn big. I'd feel differently if Ole Miss had a defense or if the game were in Oxford, but neither of those two things are true. Auburn should have no problem moving the football against the Rebel/Black Bear defense that is giving up 5.6 ypc on the ground.

The Pick: Auburn 34, Ole Miss 10
The Record: 4-4

[sabres916]

Moved to 7-1. UB got shellacked.

[greylorn]

(10-29-2011 02:21 PM)greylorn Wrote:  Game: Hawaii (-7) @ Idaho (O/U: 55.5)

Some minor RLM on this game, as Hawaii is (as usual) punching 80+% of tickets, but the line has moved from 8.0 down to 7.0 (and 7.0 +100 at some offshore sites).

Looking back though, it seems this is beyond commonplace for Idaho home games. Nearly every single home games has had RLM in Idaho's favor.

This is likely due to the crappy commute to the Kibbie Dome. Fly into Washington state, then bus the rest of the way there. It's actually a longer bus ride than the trip to Ruston is.

That being said, the good HFA has actually meant very little to Idaho this year, as they are just not very good this year.

The book on Idaho seems consistent from game to game:

- Idaho has a decent defense. However, they are better against power/middle offenses (see: Virginia), and not quite as good against pass-happy/spread offenses (see: Fresno, NMSU).

- Idaho has a poor offense. Against Div-A opponents, Idaho has NOT scored more than 24 points in any game this year. (And that's in the WAC.)


All these things point to the line move as an overreaction to HFA and Hawaii's nightmare game at SJSU.

One factor in Idaho's favor would be the general health of Hawaii's team. Hawaii has the majority of the starters back and expected to play, but many are not fully healthy, and maybe more importantly, there are a number of backups that are out for the season -- so Hawaii's depth is poor at this point of the season.

As a result, expect Hawaii to get J. Iosefa involved on the road, and expect him to be very effective in this game.


Final Score: Hawaii 38, Idaho 21

Plays: Hawaii -7.0 (medium), Hawaii/Idaho O55.5 (small)

Wow, this guy sucks.

[cmpicks]

(10-25-2011 02:19 PM)cmpicks Wrote:  Didn't see a thread, so started a new one.

Just a quick post to lock in a line, will do further write-up earlier in the week.

Pick: Georgia -2.5 vs Florida (neutral-site game).

My guess is line will only go up. Word on the street that good chance Brantley won't play again (if that is ever confirmed in media, line certainly moves up to 4.5 or even 6). Less than 3 is steal. Take it now.

EDIT - Sat 10/29, 11:05 am -- Editing to add write-up, etc.

As you'll see above, I'm on the Dawgs. My Brantley update is that he'll probably play, but isn't 100%, probably still hampered by high ankle sprain.
I still like the Georgia pick, however. Not too much to say here, but Georgia is clicking on all cylinders, and Florida is, well, Florida.

I will add one prop I like (from Bet Online): Aaron Murray -22.5 passing yds vs. Florida QBs. Even assuming Brantley is 100%, I'd like this -- Florida doesn't throw for that many yards.

Forgot to add the R/W last time -- we'll go R330/W300.

Total is 48.5; I'd probably lean under, don't feel great.
Score Prediction: Georgia 24, Florida 13.

Sorry for a less than stellar breakdown, quite busy this week, but take the Dawgs or stay away. I can't imagine Florida +3 being +EV.

Good luck all!

Final: Georgia 24, Florida 20.
UGA covers, and the total goes under.

I go to 7-1 on the year, but I'm chalking this up a pure "fluke" W. The game itself wasn't particularly fluky, but the game didn't really match how I'd handicapped it, so can't take too much credit for the W.

Brantley was indeed hampered, but his first-half performance (on basically one leg; he could only take shotgun snaps) was probably the best 30 minutes of football he's played in his life.

I underestimated just how AWFUL Georgia's special teams were; our Georgia picker was almost right, the Bulldogs' special teams very nearly cost them the game.

But true to form, Florida found a way to lose, so sometimes you take the win any way you get it.

One last note: when I took UGA -2.5 early last week, the vig was -115; I mistyped earlier in the week, but it didn't end up mattering.

[HujoTDs]

Texas Tech at Texas -14

This game is easy. Texas runs tr ball really really well. Texas Tech is horrible agaainst the run.

Play: Texas -14

[Beyond the Bets]

Wrong thread, Hujo. It's Week 10.