CFB experts Week 8

[The Cosmic Kid]

Kansas State -10.5 vs. Kansas

This line opened at -15 and is now at -10.5. The movement is confusing and a little concerning to me if it doesn't bounce back, but I think it will later this week.

Snyder loves nothing more than to completely dominate KU. In 2002, Snyder let the starters back in on defense to preserve a 64-0 shutout. Last year, he defeated the Jayhawks 59-7 in Lawrence after K-State got shellacked by Nebraska and KU came off a bye. What's important is that Snyder will not let up in this game if he has the chance.

KU fans are considering last week's 30-point loss to OU a moral victory. KU trailed by 10 at halftime following one of OU's most questionable halves of the year. In the second half, the Jayhawks were limited to -12 yards.

My only concerns are that K-State has only won one game by more than a touchdown and the early line movement has been strange.

K-State is 5-1 ATS (5-0 against D-1A opponents) this year and should move to 6-1 ATS with an easy victory in Lawrence.

The play: K-State -10.5
Predicted score: K-State 45, KU 21

[ChiefZilla]

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend." -Someone random

And since that's the case, good luck to KSU pounding the s*** out of KU this weekend. (I already bet it at -11 ... didn't know it would drop any further. Seems strange.)

[RyanParrill]

Luckily for all of you, no pick from me this week.

[aTm Coop]

Texas A&M at Iowa State
Line: A&M-20.5

Ok, here we go again. I fade the Ags last week and they surprised me with a good defensive performance vs. RG3 and Baylor. Even though Griffin set a school record (the 3rd in a row vs. aTm) for passing yards the Aggie D stiffened up when it mattered inside the red zone and kept Baylor off the scoreboard.

This week is a classic let down game going to lovely Ames, IA. However, with the way this team moves the ball offensively I really dont think Iowa State can keep up. We'll go with the Ags pulling away in the 2nd half for the win and the cover.

Pick: A&M -20.5
Score: A&M 49 Iowa State 20

[GopherGuy]

WEEK 8: Nebraska (-25) at Minnesota
THE PLAY: Nebraska (-25)
PREDICTION: Nebraska 45, Minnesota 13.

Both teams are coming off of their bye week. TCF Bank Stadium will be filled with Nebraska red, as Gopher season ticket holders will be selling their tickets to the highest Cornhusker bidders. Nebraska’s running game will gut the thin Gophers defense and it will be a slow and steady burn all afternoon. The only way Nebraska does not cover is if they beat themselves. QB Gray returns to action and a stellar game from him, mostly with his legs will be the only way the Gophers can keep this close in the first half. More changes on the O-Line for Minnesota will keep them from being able to protect long enough to get the passing game going. Martinez’ scrambling ability will keep the weak Gophers’ pass rush from even touching Martinez. Minnesota is now committed to playing a lot of freshman and continuing to learn on the job will mean lots of areas to exploit and mistakes to be made, especially on defense. Anything above 28 would get me to consider the Minnesota side, but I think Nebraska will definitely cover the number.

[Skating Tripods]

I'll take the bye week to cover against South Carolina. Stephen Garcia gets reinstated to the team and throws seven interceptions.

[The Cosmic Kid]

(10-18-2011 10:49 PM)The Cosmic Kid Wrote:  Kansas State -10.5 vs. Kansas

This line opened at -15 and is now at -10.5. The movement is confusing and a little concerning to me if it doesn't bounce back, but I think it will later this week.

Snyder loves nothing more than to completely dominate KU. In 2002, Snyder let the starters back in on defense to preserve a 64-0 shutout. Last year, he defeated the Jayhawks 59-7 in Lawrence after K-State got shellacked by Nebraska and KU came off a bye. What's important is that Snyder will not let up in this game if he has the chance.

KU fans are considering last week's 30-point loss to OU a moral victory. KU trailed by 10 at halftime following one of OU's most questionable halves of the year. In the second half, the Jayhawks were limited to -12 yards.

My only concerns are that K-State has only won one game by more than a touchdown and the early line movement has been strange.

K-State is 5-1 ATS (5-0 against D-1A opponents) this year and should move to 6-1 ATS with an easy victory in Lawrence.

The play: K-State -10.5
Predicted score: K-State 45, KU 21

This line movement hasn't made much sense to me, but this probably is where the line should be. The opening line was a bit inflated because K-State has consistently overachieved and KU has underachieved. I'm still not worried. I see no reason to think this game will be different that the previous four for either team. If the score is close at half, make a play on K-State 3Q or 2H.

[quhawks12]

Where is the Illinois expert? I need to see what he has to say.

[ChiefZilla]

(10-21-2011 12:32 PM)quhawks12 Wrote:  Where is the Illinois expert? I need to see what he has to say.

You're not the Illinois expert? I don't think we have one..

[quhawks12]

(10-21-2011 02:07 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(10-21-2011 12:32 PM)quhawks12 Wrote:  Where is the Illinois expert? I need to see what he has to say.

You're not the Illinois expert? I don't think we have one..

Not that I know of :) Not sure I deserve that title though...I tend to get a little too invested in the Illini

[cmpicks]

Florida is on a bye this weekend. Interestingly, so is the Gators' next opponent (Georgia, neutral-site game in Jacksonville on 10/29). Anyway, no pick this week.

[ChiefZilla]

(10-21-2011 02:13 PM)quhawks12 Wrote:  

(10-21-2011 02:07 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  You're not the Illinois expert? I don't think we have one..

Not that I know of :) Not sure I deserve that title though...I tend to get a little too invested in the Illini

Well, you seemed to provide good analysis in that other thread the other day. Maybe you should pick them up the rest of the season?

BTB?

[louiemdj]

Arkansas -16 vs Ole Miss

Ole Miss and Houston Nutt may have a few tricks up their sleeve to keep this one close early, but in the end, Arkansas's explosive passing attack will be way too much for the Rebels to handle. Not to mention, Arkansas won't quit if they are up big just to rub it in to their former coach. There is definitely no love lost there.

Arkansas 42 Ole Miss 24

[Sandlapper]

UNC @ Clemson (-10.5)

The Tarheels come to Death Valley for a Tiger fans dreaded Noon game. UNC is loaded with NFL talent but they haven't really shown that this year. I've been negative on Clemson all year waiting on Clemson to pull a Clemson. Well, no more! I'm on board!

Clemson 35 UNC 21

THE PLAY - CLEMSON -10.5

[Canegrad05]

Georgia Tech @ Miami -3


I think this line is "fishy" similar to the Ohio State game earlier this season. Georgia Tech, expected to be undefeated before a shocking loss to UVA last weekend, is now on the road against a Miami team that many people thought would lose to North Carolina, and they nearly did despite dominating the first half last week 27-10. Now, GT comes in on a loss, and are 3 point underdogs. I do not believe they would have been had they won last weekend, or had the Canes lost last weekend, which was the expected outcome for both.

The public is hammering Georgia Tech, but the line is not moving. I think Miami has no problems moving the ball against GT, but I'm concerned about the lack of DL depth for Miami, and Miami's general lack of ability to stop the run or stop the pass. I keep waiting for a Jacory Harris meltdown, but the kid has played spectactular football this year. Hopefully he continues it today.

The pick: Miami -3

Final score: Miami 34 GT 28

Advice: stay away, grab a beer, and enjoy what should be an offensive shootout.

[ChiefZilla]

#4 OKLAHOMA STATE AT MISSOURI
THE LINE: Oklahoma St -7
OPENER: Oklahoma St -7.5
The Pick: Okie State

I'm with CaneGrad, this is another one of those "fishy" lines out there, but I'm going to stick with my initial instinct on this one and advise a play on the Cowboys. FULL DISCLOSURE: I'm only 1-2 this year when picking against Missouri so maybe I'm just too cynical. (2-1 when picking with them.)

I thought this line, at a minimum, would come out in double digits and was shocked to see it release where it did. Now 80-some percent of the public is on my side with this but it's actually moving the other way so I'm a little terrified that I'm falling for a sucker bet. I got on it when it was Okie State -6.5 earlier in the week.

Looking at the matchup, I just don't see how Mizzou stacks up in one area .. OSU pass offense (2nd nationally) vs. Mizz pass defense (65th). The Cowboys might have trouble running the ball, but I'm not sure if it will matter.

The only chance the Tigers have is by controlling a little bit of clock and pounding the ground with the Henry Josey-James Franklin combo. Josey came in as an injury replacement earlier this season and I personally loved it bc he has speed like no one else in Mizzou's backfield. Now he's ninth in the nation in rushing (120 ypg).

So if Mizzou can get an early edge with the ground game and put a little heat on Okie State, they have a chance.

Sometimes crazy things happen in Columbia, but my gut says this isn't one of those days.

Final score prediction: Oklahoma St 38, Mizzou 28.

[Spburn2]

Game: Jacksonville State @ Kentucky
Line: UK -10
O/U: 49

When BTB projected UK as 21 point favorites early in the week, I was licking my chops ready to hop on JSU. Kentucky's offense has only managed a total of 20 points in the last 3 games and have only scored over 20 once this season (27 vs Cent Mich).

JSU is one of the better FCS teams as they are 5-1 one the season. Their main offensive weapon is Washaun Ealey, former Georgia starting rb who torched UK for 157yards and 5td as a Bulldog last year. Granted, UGA's O-line was probably a lot better than JSU's current line, but the point is JSU has legit D-1 talent at RB. Ealey is avg 99ypg and 5.2ypc this year. JSU is a running team, avg 210ypg on the ground on an avg of 47.5 carries/g. This is compared to their avg of 155 passing yards on 21 pass attempts per game.

Trying to think of who has the mental edge, and it should be about even. This is the best opponent JSU will face all year and they should realize they have a legit chance to get a win over an FBS SEC team. On the other side, HC Joker Phillips already has some fans calling for his head and he knows if he loses this game all hell is gonna break loose in Lexington. You gotta think he took advantage of the bye week to come up with a good gameplan for this week.

This game is a tough call as I think it will close for most of the game which will turn UK's home crowd against them. Both teams favor running the ball, and with UK their problems lie on offense, as their defense has played well when facing lesser competition.

Prediction: UK 21 - JSU 10
The play: Under 49

Update: From the time I starting writing this post till just after I finished and rechecked the line, it has gone from -10 to -11.5. So not sure who this makes my play on now, but I guess I'll officially claim JSU + 11.5 now. The line will probably go up even more as it gets closer to gametime at noon.

[itg_sports]

Wow..it looks like the volume of picks dwindles by the week. I didn't even notice an updated standings thread. I haven't had a chance to make it to the forum quite as much but I will make sure to make it back every week in hopes of being better than 52%.

The Game. The Texas Tech Red Raiders traveling to Oklahoma to face the Mighty Sooners.

The line: ranging from 28 to 30. We will use 28.5 (betonline)
O/U: 70

OU is pretty much one of those perfect package teams with the 6th ranked offense and the 10th ranked defense. I think these stats will definately spill over to this game and they will absolutely whip the Red Raiders. However...28.5 is a lot of points especially when Tech boasts the 9th best offense in the country. Expect OU to jump out early with the game never being in question and then pulling off the gas a bit late. I think Texas Tech will move the ball and poke in enough meaningless points to cover.

The Picks. TTU (+28.5)
Predicted Score: TTU 25 OU 50
Bonus: Over

[quhawks12]

I'm not the expert for the Illini BUT my prediction: Illinois 34, Purdue 24

Illini cover the -3.5. Late score pushed them to the 10 point win. I'd go into more detail but not time...daughters soccer game in a half hour :) Next week I'll write a little more in advance.

[SkyBlues42]

No. 8 Oregon @ Colorado

Line: Oregon -31
O/U: 64

Keeping with the theme...

This game is going to be very difficult to make a play on until its official as to whether or not LaMichael James and Darron Thomas will play. I see no reason in making a play on this game until you know for sure, and if its too late, well, maybe you saved yourself some money.

If they both play, I'm laying the chalk. Colorado has way too many holes on both sides of the ball. The Buffaloes are without a running back, two wide receivers and their leading tackler. They have also given up more than 30 points in six of seven games, including 48 and 52 in their last two. So, you can expect the Ducks to get a fair share of points

If neither play (which will likely be the case), I'd honestly avoid. But for expert pick purposes, take Colorado. The Buffaloes play hard, and if Oregon is without its starting running back and quarterback, they'll play even harder. I still see a big win, just not by 31 points.

Drives will take a little longer, and they will not get the same results without Thomas running the offense.

Pick: Oregon -31 (if James and Thomas start), Colorado if they don't.

Final Score: Oregon 56 Colorado 19