CFB Experts Week 11

[cmpicks]

Ah, sure, good thought. If I'm first post again next week, I'll do so.

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(11-11-2011 07:56 AM)cmpicks Wrote:  I'm slightly surprised that I didn't see any thread posted since it's Friday, so I apologize if I just overlooked it.

Write-up to come later today, but couldn't let this line stand without locking it in:

Pick: South Carolina -3 (-105) vs. Florida (R315/W300)

Will update later today with info, etc. Hearing Brantley will be fine (shoulder injury late last week); no inside info on SC, but reports are Shaw will play.

EDIT: Sat 11/12, 9:18 AM, for more write-up, total, etc.

As indicated above, I like S. Carolina today. At worst, I think this is a very good value -- S Carolina is undervalued after looking bad last week, and Florida is a public team, no matter how bad it plays. The Gators beat Vandy 26-21 last week, and very easily could've lost. I never feel good about Florida in a game except those in which it has a distinct talent/athleticism advantage. Obviously the lack of Lattimore, the type of rusher that could've gone for 300 on Florida's D, is worrisome, S. Carolina only rushed for 2.4/rush last week vs Arkansas.

But in Columbia, laying only 3 w/ less juice...you definitely take either SCar or pass.

Total: 40.5, I'd lean under.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 20, Florida 13

Final: South Carolina 17, Florida 12. Brings me to 9-1.

Probably the closest I've been to a score prediction all season. Game pretty much went as I had thought, with SCar able to run a little better than expected (52 car for 215 yds). Gamecocks had some killer penalties but won turnover battle 2-1.

Thought Florida should've pounded Rainey more (17 car, 132 yds). S Carolina only threw 13 times for 84 yards but had a big completion on the final drive to set up the spread-clinching FG.

Next week: Florida hosts Furman, 1 p.m., PPV game.
This game will be similar to the early-season Gators games -- Florida has a massive talent advantage, lay whatever points necessary (or pass).

[vegasobie]

The Game: UNLV @ New Mexico, 7:00 PST
The Line: UNLV -7, 51

After going against UNLV the last two weeks and being wrong both times, I am now only 4-4 trying to predict this team. Looking at how they have played the last two weeks and the opponent this week, it seems like UNLV should win pretty easily. And they should...but they won't. Until this team, under Coach Hauck, proves they can even be competitive on the road, I won't trust them. Any time two bad teams play each other, I prefer to take the points. I'm sure this makes no betting sense whatsoever, but to expect the Rebels to win by more than a touchdown, even against New Mexico, seems insane. Good Luck!

Predicted Score: New Mexico 20 UNLV 17
THE PLAY: New Mexico +7

[greylorn]

Game: Hawaii @ Nevada (-14.5, 62.5)

Too many points, but be advised -- Royce Pollard is out again for Hawaii. This should slow down Hawaii's efficiency by more than a bit. The two slot receivers are playing well, but without Pollard at the ZWR, it'll be hard for Hawaii to stay in rhythm.

This being said, Hawaii's defense traditionally plays very well versus Nevada system.

The total is zooooming upward, but if you need a play, without Pollard, the Under is worth a look.

Score: Nevada 31, Hawaii 23

Plays: Hawaii +14.5 (medium), Hawaii/Nevada Under 62.5 (medium)

** Wait until kickoff before playing Under, obv.