CFB Expert Picks Week 5

[RyanParrill]

Minnesota @ Michigan
Open Line: Michigan -20.5
Score: Michigan 35 - Minnesota 14
The Pick: Michigan -20.5

[patrickjbyrne]

So if this line moves to the other side of 21 are you with the Gophers. Because I see the move happening.

[RyanParrill]

(09-25-2011 08:15 PM)patrickjbyrne Wrote:  So if this line moves to the other side of 21 are you with the Gophers. Because I see the move happening.

It has moved to -21 at BetOnline, now. I'm going to expand on the pick, add the over/under, and post a feeling about where the line is closer to Saturday. I just wanted to get it out there right away so some people could grab it. I'm not sure there comes a time where you 'buy' Minnesota, probably a point where you instead stop 'buying' Michigan. I'll expand on it Friday. As you said, the move is happening.

[MMGambler]

Matchup: South Florida at Pitt
Line: Pitt +2.0
Pick: South Florida -2.0

So the Wynn opened this line up at Pitt -3 which makes absolutely no sense at all. I was expecting to see the number open with USF a 3.5 point favourite similar to what we saw Notre Dame open last week. The current line sits at USF -2.0 (BetOnline) and at that number I think you have to go with the Bulls.

These 2 teams are in different stages, Skip Holtz has an athletic team with a very talented QB that is ready to win right now, while Todd Graham needs to gather personnel that are going to work with his offensive philosophy. Taking that into consideration there may be a couple of underlying factors as to why the line is so short:

i) The Panthers were able to cover at home against the public backed Fighting Irish.
ii) As BTB has pointed out previously, Thursday Night home teams tend to play well on the National stage.

I am not buying into the Panthers performance this past weekend. The Irish dominated the football game but were hurt by turnovers and penalties which have plagued them all season long thus far. The Panthers still couldn't pull out the victory even as ND tried to hand it over to them. As for point 2, this game is even bigger for South Florida playing on the National Stage. They don't have the comforts of playing at home on a short week, but they have something to prove in their quest for a Big East title. I think this game will be close as Pitt will be up for their Big East opener, but I think South Florida is the only play here.


South Florida 27 - Pitt 24

[cmpicks]

Matchup: Alabama at Florida, 8 p.m., CBS
Line: Alabama -4 (no total on scores and odds at this point)

I've been waiting for this game since the GOY lines came out in July. Way back then, the line opened at Alabama -6 and I made a max bet on the Tide at that point. If I was one of those ridiculous charging touts, this would really be my stone-cold game of the year pick. I honestly don't believe I'll feel more confident about any college football game this year (considering my feelings vs. what the line is). The line opened this week at 5.5 to 6, moved all the way down to 3.5, then back up to 4, so I'm locking it in here. I have to believe it's the public pounding Florida, although the fact the money was early perhaps means it was the sharps. Either way, this is my lock of the year. Florida has not faced a worthy opponent yet; credit the Gators for dispatching foes who they clearly outmatch, but I don't believe the WAY Florida has been winning can be sustained. Alabama has a solid secondary and should be able to allow the D to focus on stopping the run. And that is THE key matchup: can Florida's RB duo of Rainey and Demps do enough for Florida to win? I believe they cannot. Brantley cannot throw the ball downfield, and even if Rainey and/or Demps breaks off a long one (or even two), it won't be enough. Florida's D has been a welcome surprise this year, so I don't expect a complete rout, but there's no way Bama doesn't win by less than 10. To channel a coach cliche, the Gators have yet to be "punched in the mouth" this year -- and I don't expect them to respond well. One more stat to add: Florida has scored only 11 TDs in 19 Red Zone trips this year. That's right, 11 of 19 against the "mighty" defenses of Florida Atlantic, UAB, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Red zone issues were also a problem in 2010, and it's something the Gators would have to drastically change to pull off the upset.

You'll note that I always make my plays with corresponding units, as a way to gauge my commitment and insight into the game -- from 1 to 5. This one was be an auto-5, but I'm giving slight deferential to Todd Fuhrman of Caesar's Palace (if you're not following him on Twitter you should be), who said it's not a sharp long-term play to lay the points here going into The Swamp. Even if I completely disagree (and believe everyone's opinion on Florida will drastically change after Saturday), I'll defer and move the play to 4.5.


The Play: Alabama -4 (R450/W409)
Total: Not released yet?
Score Prediction: Alabama 27, Florida 10

(To be fair, I'll try to make the Florida counterargument -- although if you were gonna take Florida, you obviously should've gotten the Gators at +6 when the line opened Sunday night. Here are Florida's "keys to the game" (cue cheesy TV graphic):

1) Momentum-swinging special teams play, possibly consisting of a TD or at least massive field position change
2) Brantley makes no mistakes
3) Rainey and Demps combine for over 200 yards
4) Defense, at home, in front of its fans, plays beyond its years, doesn't commit stupid pass interference penalties and doesn't drop 10,000 interceptions
5) One other huge break -- maybe a fumble, maybe an offensive trick play, maybe an onside kick.

That's the scenario I see for Florida pulling the upset.)

EDIT: Wed 9/28, 12:48 AM EST: BetOnline has total posted at 44.5. I'd lean under and would even make it a one-unit play.

[@oconnellp]

Matchup: Baylor Bears vs. Kansas ST Wildcats
Line: 4 or 3.5

Just saw that this matchup is BTB's "play of the week".......and I'm gonna have to disagree with him!!!! He doenst make many picks so the confidence level must be high but
Here is my rationale -

1. Do I think Baylor wins this game? Probably. Yeah. But only by a field goal or less. Last team with the ball wins this one. Much like the TCU-Bay game except lower scoring.
2. This is the first time Baylor must leave the friendly confines of Waco this year where they've accumulated a 3-0 record so far against the spread. First road game, first test in a semi-hostile environment. Looking at the past two years tells you nothing about their road ATS numbers because they're .500. Heres a bonus stat though: 7 of last 8 Big 12 games Baylor has gone OVER the total
3. People may be down on the Miami team that K-state beat last week but I thought that victory was impressive as hell. I think K-states defense may be just good enough to slow Baylor down a little bit.
4. Baylor's defense is just waiting to be exposed.....its the elephant in the room of this team. K-state can run amuck on the ground against this team. I see them in a controling the clock mindset to keep Robert GIII off the field. It will work perfectly against this Baylor defense. K-state is a team that is fairly comprable to the TCU team that lost to Baylor in week 1. Maybe not as explosive as TCU offensively but they wont neccessarily need that b/c I doubt the Bears jump out to a huge lead early. Baylor played way over their heads in the TCU game, tried to give it away in the 4th quarter, and ended up getting a 2 point win. I see this same scenario playing out but Baylor will struggle more throughout the course of this game with Bill Snyder playing ultimate grind it out, ugly football.

I've been looking forward to the opportunity to bet against the Baylor D and K-state is the pefect team to capitalize on that weakness.

Outcome: Baylor 34 K-State 33
The pick: K-State +4/3.5

[jimmysingh9]

I remember last years game in WACO was back and forth for a while. I had baylor and while they pulled away. Kansas St scored pretty easily alot but they have Daniel Thomas at that time.

[cmpicks]

(09-27-2011 06:12 PM)Cee59 Wrote:  

(09-27-2011 03:39 PM)cmpicks Wrote:  Yep, can't believe I'll feel this confident in any other Florida line this year.

I'm assuming u are a gators fan. Rare seeing fans taking the opposite sides of their beloved teams.

I'm an alumnus, but not really a fan anymore, just follow closely. Former reporter, used to cover the team.

[@oconnellp]

(09-27-2011 10:59 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I don't think K-State is capable of putting up more than 28 points. They'd have to play a perfect game.

Baylor defense SO much worse than a Miami defense that allowed 265 yards on the ground. K-state scored 28. I dont like picking against a side you're heavily on.....i think you might have trouble being unbiased in a k-state game though.

[cmpicks]

To add onto my last post, if anything I'm almost an anti-fan now. Having seen how the sausage is made (and especially this year, how much "swagger" these players have after a terrible '10 season and beating no one so far), I'm going to actually take delight in Bama setting 'em straight.

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-27-2011 11:13 PM)@oconnellp Wrote:  

(09-27-2011 10:59 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I don't think K-State is capable of putting up more than 28 points. They'd have to play a perfect game.

Baylor defense SO much worse than a Miami defense that allowed 265 yards on the ground. K-state scored 28. I dont like picking against a side you're heavily on.....i think you might have trouble being unbiased in a k-state game though.

Trouble being unbiased in a K-State game? I like Baylor in this spot. Also, I'm not a K-State fan. Just a guy who bets for and against them like a ruthless cold-blooded killer while hitting at a rate of 65% to 70%.

[@oconnellp]

(09-27-2011 11:22 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(09-27-2011 11:13 PM)@oconnellp Wrote:  

(09-27-2011 10:59 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I don't think K-State is capable of putting up more than 28 points. They'd have to play a perfect game.

Baylor defense SO much worse than a Miami defense that allowed 265 yards on the ground. K-state scored 28. I dont like picking against a side you're heavily on.....i think you might have trouble being unbiased in a k-state game though.

Trouble being unbiased in a K-State game? I like Baylor in this spot. Also, I'm not a K-State fan. Just a guy who bets for and against them like a ruthless cold-blooded killer while hitting at a rate of 65% to 70%.

Thats what I'm saying. I think you have a VERY good read on k-state, just think you're underestimating them. You're probably right though. Baylor may be the play, but I've just watched their defense closely in 2 games this year, and most of last year, and have zero respect for them on the defensive side of the ball. We'll see. I wouldnt touch this game in reality except maybe a play on the total.

[HokiePokie]

Matchup: Clemson vs Virginia Tech
Line: Virginia Tech -7
The Play: Clemson +7

Virginia Tech finally faces competition this week against Clemson. After opening the schedule with ranked teams the past two years in Alabama and Boise State, Tech instead has played App St, ECU, Ark St, and Marshall to start off the 2011 campaign. The sad part is aside from the impressive opener against 1-AA App State, the Hokies have looked unimpressive to say the least. Going 1-3 ATS this year and a road game against ECU that could have been a loss if ECU defenders don't drop interceptions.

The Hokies have not been tested this year and it will show on Saturday night against a Clemson team that is full of emotion with back to back wins against Auburn and Florida State. Clemson QB Taj Boyd from Hampton, Virginia was recruited by Tech, but chose to go out of state instead. This will be his homecoming and he will have something to prove. Hokies QB Logan Thomas has great potential, but so far I am not impressed. He continues to force throws into double coverage and throws the ball too hard, when he just needs to put some air on it.

Injuries: Tech WR's was supposed to be a major strength this year. So far Dyrell Roberts is out for the year and all time Hokies leader in receptions Jarrett Boykin missed last week with a hamstring injury. Boykin is expected to return this week, but how effective he can be remains to be seen.

Overall I expect Tech to use the running game with Wilson and Oglesby to control the clock in a typical Hokies grind it out game. However, this year Special Teams is not special. The kicking game is terrible. Kicker Cody Journell is 4-7 in FG's and the punter is so bad WR Danny Coale attempted a punt last week against Marshall. This game will be close and I am surprised the line was not VT - 3.5. Don't get me wrong Hokies in Lane Stadium at night is a tough environment, but Clemson has shown they can play with anyone so far this year. Tech does not have the offense to be in a shootout kind of a game.

Prediction: Hokies 27 - Tigers 31

[HujoTDs]

Matchup: Texas at Iowa State
Line: Texas -9.5
The Play: Texas -9.5

I played this on the open at Texas -10. When I was going through my numbers Sunday morning I had this game at -16.5 and noticed even BTB had it at -13.5. Granted Iowa State is 3-0 but consider their competition. Iowa layed an egg against them and for 3 quarters they did the same against Pitt. I'm equally as unimpressed with UConn.

Texas with Mack Brown has a great track record off the bye week. I think a big reason for this is Mack comes out conservative (read: names Garret Gilbert the starter) and then once the players are able to separate on film he really reinvents the team. This has been going on for years from back when he didn't play Benson as a freshman until after the bye, to when he didn't start Vince Young as a freshman until after the bye, etc. Now that Case McCoy is the starter and David Ash has proved to be the Tim Tebow to his Chris Leak I think the extra week will prove huge come Saturday.

Additionally consider the Marquise Goodwin factor. For those that don't know Senior WR Marquise Goodwin who would have been UT's best returning WR initially decided to redshirt to concentrate on qualifying for the 2012 London Summer Olympics. After finishing 13th (only 12 qualify) in a qualifier in South Korea the night of the first game against Rice Goodwin decided he wanted to return to the team this year. While he has suited up against BYU and UCLA he has only come in on kickoff returns and the occasional offensive play for a quick smoke screen. He was out the spring as well with track so the bye week will be huge for him and as a Senior I would expect him to get real PT for this first time this season this Saturday in Ames and start contributing to the offense.

Additionally Texas returns the #6 Defense from last year which always surprises people and this year they've allowed 3 touchdowns in 3 games. I don't see Iowa State changing that story.

I made pussyfoot picks the first two games against Rice and BYU and missed on both. I was very confident with my Texas -3 pick against UCLA and Texas won by 29. I'm equally, if not more confident about this Texas -9.5 number.

Prediciton: Texas 31 - Iowa State 13

[acfrahm]

THE GAME: Mississippi St. at Georgia (-7)

ANALYSIS: Georgia has righted the ship somewhat after their disappointing 0-2 start with wins over Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss. This weekend they step up a level in competition. Mississippi State has struggled a little this year dealing with higher expectations, but I still believe they are a good football team. I believe the close win over La. Tech last week was more of a product of a trap game between a tough loss to LSU and looking ahead to Georgia than anything.

Georgia is starting to develop confidence and they are playing a lot better on both sides of the ball than they were at the beginning of the year. Isaiah Crowell has really stabilized the running game and Aaron Murray is doing a good job working the ball to his tight ends. The defense played really well last week, the only points coming on a trick play/broken coverage. Special Teams is the biggest weakness Georgia has right now allowing the 2nd Ole Miss touchdown.

I think that Georgia gets up for this 12:00 start and plays a complete game. Georgia got outclassed in Starkville last year. They have had this game circled on the calendar. They have had two straight easy wins, and should be prepared for Dan Mullen's offense. Richt may pull out a trick or two this week considering Georgia fans have been pretty vocal in support of Dan Mullen as a candidate if Richt is fired at the end of the year.

I see Georgia stopping the run on defense and making Chris Relf beat them, which I don't think he can do. Georgia, for the most part has shut down the run this year. The exception was Marcus Lattimore. Vick Ballard is good, but he is no Marcus Lattimore. I also think MSU's defense lost a little something when Manny Diaz took the Texas job. Crowell gets his yards, Murray does enough through the air, and Georgia covers.

PREDICTION: Georgia 30 Mississippi State 20
THE PLAY: GEORGIA -7

[louiemdj]

I like Mississippi St to cover in this game. Georgia is good and will probably win by about a FG. I just think -7 is too many points in this one.

[GopherGuy]

WEEK 5: Minnesota at Michigan (-20)
THE PLAY: Michigan (-20)
PREDICTION: Minnesota 38, Minnesota 14.

Minnesota heads to the Big House after losing at home to North Dakota State, an FBS team. Their coach spent half the week in the hospital and the fastest guy on their team (KR and CB Troy Stoudermire) will not play. The weakest part of the Gopher defense is pass rush and QB contain. Hello Denard Robinson. If the Wolverines are focused and able to execute, the margin of victory will be significant. I expect the game to be tight to begin with, but the margin will get to 20+ in the fourth quarter. Minnesota still is trying to find its true QB and the offensive line is sporadic in creating running room. The Gophers will not be able to shorten the game by controlling the clock. The Gophers have not played at the Big House since 2007, so very few, if any players have experience in Michigan Stadium and the coaching staff has little as well. I just cannot envision a scenario where the Gophers keep this one close. With another game before the Wolverines play the Spartans, I do not think they will be overlooking the Gophers. By wearing down a thin Gopher team and by pounding the ball on the ground, including a large dose of Robinson, Michigan should dominate.

[Sandlapper]

Clemson @ Virginia Tech(-7)

Clemson makes their first road trip of the season to Lane Stadium to take on the Virginia Tech Hokies. Clemson has steadily improved over the season but the fact remains that their two "big wins" came against a much worse Auburn team and an EJ Manuel less FSU team. Throw in the fact that this years Clemson team is very young and has had the luxury of playing their first 4 games in front of a friendly crowd and it all boils down to we still don't know if this team is for real.

Clemson teams of past loved to excite our fan base by making a decent run only to let us down when the big challenges showed up. As much as I want to believe this years team is different, I won't believe it till they prove me wrong.

VT 27 - Clemson 17

THE PLAY - VIRGINIA TECH -7

[acfrahm]

(09-29-2011 07:48 PM)louiemdj Wrote:  I like Mississippi St to cover in this game. Georgia is good and will probably win by about a FG. I just think -7 is too many points in this one.

Understandable, I think it should be tight throughout, but Georgia hasn't played a complete game yet this year and I think this is the spot. Granted, Ole Miss is a bad team, but Georgia completely dominated the game last week and it didn't necessarily show up on the scoreboard. I think the line is appropriate in this game, I originally had it at UGA -6.5. I just think Georgia does just enough to cover it.

[mount187]

(09-29-2011 08:55 PM)GopherGuy Wrote:  PREDICTION: Minnesota 38, Minnesota 14.

Say what now?