CBB: early teams to look for and caution against

[Pujols_5]

Before the season started I made a list of teams that I thought may be surprise teams and teams that may be a tad overrated. I have won a few bets using some of the teams I listed. I would like to post the teams I think and would really encourage posters to do the same or hit on some of my choices pro or con. Let's make this a big team effort.

Sleepers

Temple
Outside of the top 25 to start the season but may very well find themselves there about midseason. Return most of their scoring output from last year and can put up decent offensive scoring numbers. Have a pretty good backcourt and Michael Eric is a strong rebounder with a strong motor.

UNLV
They really like to push the tempo. This could bring in some higher scoring games. Have a big strong frontline that could cause mismatches. We all know that whoever wins the rebounding category more than likely has a very good shot at winning the game. Reggie Smith is not eligible until December. Once he gets back on team then they will improve more.

Kent St
A well coached team that returns the top offensive and defensive players in the MAC in Justin Green and Michael Porrini. Return pretty much all their key parts from a year ago.

Long Beach St
Already proved how strong of a sleeper team they can really be by handling Pitt at Pitt and covering against a decent Boise St team. They return four senior starters and we all know how much senior leadership helps in the early season. Casper Ware is the best player in the Big West and he can score in bunches. Their tough early schedule will only help them as the year progresses. Hopefully the Vegas minds dont catch on.

St. Louis
Rick Majerus has already said how much he loves this team and may consider it one of best he has had that includes the 98 Utah team that reached the finals. They return their top seven players which is extremely rare. Not to mention they will add one of their best players who misses all of last season due to injury. Majerus makes them get after it on defense and they like to control the tempo. I am a big fan of teams with lockdown defenses. In games where they are the dawg they can really keep it close.

Iona
Arizona transfer is a big reason why I have them listed. They are a high scoring team and he only helps that matter. Scott Machado is already proving that he is one of the top PG in the nation and Michael Glover is a mid-major star.

Indiana
About time the Hoosiers return to relevance and Tom Crean can get them back. Return 98% of last years scoring output and add big freshman Cody Zeller. Christian Watford is a pretty good player that can score efficiently.

Cleveland St
Already whooped up on Vanderbilt at Vandy and beat one of my other sleeper teams in Kent St at Kent St. They return four starters and have a strong defender in D'Aundray Brown who can create mismatches on defense. They are deep as well as being experienced.

Overrated

Oklahoma St
They are without one of their best players in Darrell Williams. Hurts them down low and LeBryan Nash is already showing attitude problems as a freshman. Travis Ford has proved he has trouble controlling the lockerroom at other stops (inside info.) Without Williams they lack size down low and they are unsettled at the point.

UCLA
Pretty much a no-brainer here for now. They are an imbalanced team and Reeves Nelson has proven to be a trouble maker. They will be splitting arenas for home games and with the dismal start they aren't going to have much of a homecourt advantage all season.

Pittsburgh
The coach is already calling out his team and says they need to pick it up. Took to the woodshed by Long Beach St and nearly lost to La Salle. In my opinion they are one of the annual overrated teams in the country. They are inconsistent that lost its top three players from last year. Not to mention they lack size, a staple of their past teams.

Baylor
Tons of talent but can they be consistent every game? That is something that scares me with this team and will keep me away from betting them. They are turnover prone and never know what you will get out of Perry Jones each game. Scott Drew has proven to falter in late game situations as coach. Have already had some trouble holding leads.

Arizona
Team that really came on late in season and into tournament. And the main reason for their strong tournament showing is no longer on the team in Derrick Williams. People do not realize how important he was to that team and losing him kills their rebounding and go to scoring option. They have talented freshman guards but the key word there is freshman. Along with lacking quality size they are pretty suspect on defense. Mississippi State has proven that size will kill this team.

Memphis
This has turned personal with me because I have lost 4 straight bets to start the season with them. They are extremely athletic and talented. They could beat the hell out of nearly ever team in the country yet some nights they might as well been better off staying at home. I consider that a coaching problem with the young Pastner. Their late-game management and decisions have killed them early in season. They can run up and down the court but are known for turning the ball over.

Washington
Atleast on this list early on. Who knows if Abdul Gaddy will play or not this season with the turn ACL. They do however lose their top scoring option off last years team in Isaiah Thomas. Return only 29% of last season offense and 42% of their defense. That proves to be a young team that will struggle early. Also they are thin in the frontcourt.

Like I said please post your opinions and whether you agree with my choices and list some of your teams and reasons. This list will obviously change throughout the season.

[JayPrimetown]

Hard to argue with your list of overrated teams.... many of them have the same qualities (athletic, fast tempo, low shooting percentage). Baylor is a team that plays to its level of competition... struggle again poor opposition, but then will beat Texas by 10 points. It's what they do.

On the sleeper side, there are several other teams especially at the mid major level. E. Washington can really shoot the basketball. They played a very tight game with Gonzaga and were up on Oregon before faltering late. Also, destroyed Hawaii away. I believe they have covered every game too.

Creighton is 4-0 to start the season and has one of the top mid major scorers in the nation in McDermott. Already has a 10 point win at UAB and a blowout win over Iowa.

San Diego St. had to retool after many players to graduation and the draft, but they have come out strong to start the year. Wins over a very good LB State squad and the ultimate resume builder with a win at Arizona. This team can shoot, but also grind out like many Steve Fisher squads have done in the past.

One major conference team outside the radar to watch for is Northwestern. This is a team that is as smart as any in the country. They run some of the best backdoor cuts I've seen in some time. No huge wins on their resume but they have beaten LSU (meh), Tulsa (need to win), and Seton Hall (better than projected). The Wildcats have two excellent offensive players in Jon Shurna (21.5 PPG) and Drew Crawford (20.8 PPG). This team can really shoot at the charity stripe which is a big bonus in a tight came and has that nice balance of two guys can score... specifically Crawford who can create his own shot. Think he plays in the NBA one day.

The one major conference that really has some poor teams in the ACC. Boston College (20+ point losses to Holy Cross and UMASS), Clemson (loss Coastal Carolina), Ga Tech (9 pt loss to LSU, 13 pt loss to St. Joes), Maryland (26 pt loss to Iona), and Virginia (2 pt loss to TCU). Could be some good fade material as we continue in the non conference season.

[mount187]

Be careful thinking Iona is a sleeper. They have already been favored in most of their games, and have missed covering some small margins. In my opinion, the books have already adjusted their lines to meet their talent level.

[Beyond the Bets]

First off, great job Pujols. You seem to be a pleasant addition to the forum.

I agree with most teams on your list, but I think what you'll find over the next few weeks is that UCLA is actually undervalued. They've stunk it up on three occasions on national television over the last 10 days or so, and that is going to alter perception of them dramatically.

The Bruins have stumbled out of the gate under Ben Howland in previous years before turning things around and becoming a decent team. I think there will be some value on the Bruins when they could be dogs that have the potential to win outright.

[atk825]

I think your point BTB, is that even beyond UCLA, teams evolve and devolve and that keeping a fluid opinion based on the most recent results is best. An example in baseball this year was the Dodgers, where they were one of the worst teams in baseball for four months, yet one of the best for the final two because they finally let young talent play over crappy vets. It takes some teams more than a handful of games to figure out the talent they have.

[Beyond the Bets]

I don't know if MLB is the best comparison, given that baseball is completely random and any team, certainly over a 162-game schedule, has the potential to get "hot" once or twice. But certainly, when you talk about some of college basketball's best coaches and finest tacticians — guys like Pitino and Izzo and Coach K and yes, even Ben Howland — they are going to eventually figure it out and get the most out of what they have.

Sometimes it takes a while to mix and match and tinker and adjust and all that other good stuff that coaches do, but the great ones usually solve the puzzle, so to speak.

[Pujols_5]

Appreciate it. Enjoyed the new article about the 10 mid-major teams to eye. Good info.

Some of the teams I listed were teams I had in mind before the season started such as Iona and St. Louis. The books have certainly caught on to these teams.

I also think some of the mid major sleeper teams are better plays against bigger competition teams like Cleveland St. vs. Vandy and Long Beach St. vs. Pitt rather than against other mid-major teams. They will be the dawg against the better competition and usually the favorite against teams on their level and teams on their level have a better idea of how to play them than the bigger schools who usually look past them.

This is pretty obvious but I like four extremely talented teams that are very well-coached in UNC, UK, Ohio St, and Syracuse. It's easy to say but when they play teams, their talent level is on a completely different level and these teams hardly have let ups and their backups are as good as most teams regulars in blowouts. These teams most likely always will be the favorite but sometimes the books don't even give the other team enough points. Like UK (my favorite team who I never miss a minute of their action) was a 35pt favorite against Marist and won by 50 and a 19pt favorite against Penn St and won by almost 40. Also 6 1/2 favorite against a good Kansas squad and won by 10 after dominating them in the second half. They did have a let up against Old Dominion but that was after playing the day before on a long road trip and Old Dominion likes to get physical which is one of Kentucky's weaknesses. Basically, when these teams win, they are going to win in a big way; more than any other top team such as Duke, UConn, and Louisville.

[Beyond the Bets]

Just a quick note from the ATS table: The state of Tennessee (Middle Tennessee and Tennessee) are a combined 10-0 ATS.

Oh, Memphis is from Tennessee? Damn. Then it's a combined 11-3 ATS.

[Pujols_5]

(11-24-2011 02:13 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Just a quick note from the ATS table: The state of Tennessee (Middle Tennessee and Tennessee) are a combined 10-0 ATS.

Oh, Memphis is from Tennessee? Damn. Then it's a combined 11-3 ATS.

Both MTSU and UT have been surprises for me, especially UT. Figured after losing Pearl and talent off last year's team they would struggle early but Coach Martin has them playing hard and Maymon is going to be a force. With outside shooting of McBee and Maymon down low, they could create some good mismatches.