Can someone tell me whats to like about Baltimore today? I dont get it..

[gynecologist]

Texas destroyed them yesterday, BP is tired. Baltimore has been beating up on crap and TX is arguably the best team in baseball.

Feliz is good, dont see him being a negative.
TX has good #'s vs Arrieta.


With all this being said, TX line has dropped 25-30c's from yesterday..
Whats going on here that Im not getting?

[gynecologist]

Balt BP is tired and the big Tex bats will get at least 2-3 innings of them.

[Wiseguy]

I know some sharp money thats all over Balt today

[gynecologist]

yeah I know, me too.. I dont get it whatsoever..

There was sharp money on the under yesterday too for some asinine reason and we saw how that worked out.. Sometimes the sharps lose, I just want to know whats to like about balty..

Lines for games like this dont have such dramatic moves. Its a mystery to me..

GL today wiseguy.

[Wiseguy]

No doubt about that. They also pounded Minn for some reason.

[jimmysingh9]

Guys remember,


Sharp Money loses more than 40% of the time.

[jimmysingh9]

my advice would be if you do not agree with the sharp money and do not love the Texas Rangers, then just make it a no play and look for something else.

[gynecologist]

I already bet Texas.. got a bad line on it too..

I'm stuck lol.. on paper I feel extremely confident about TX, mentally I dont. Feel like some BS will happen.

[jimmysingh9]

if you someone was to give me a team blindly to bet without any info or opponent or anything. I would gladly take the Texas Rangers so you aren't in a bad situation.


A win with a bad line is better than a loss with a great line.

[mount187]

Our model had Texas as well. Like Jimmy said, if you're going to get yourself in bed with a team you don't like, the Rangers aren't a bad choice.

[SkyBlues42]

I'm on the fade the Orioles train right now. Hopefully it doesn't make any unexpected stops. The pitching is their biggest flaw and now they're in a series against one of the best hitting teams in the big leagues. Good spot, surprisingly good value.

[gynecologist]

I agree skyblues.. Balt's BP has been used up mightily the last few days..

Texas will get 2-3 innings of them, maybe more.. Texas 1-9 is great hitter after great hitter..
Also its a hitters park..

[MrLomez]

Glad to see someone else was baffled by this line movement. I would love to know where this BAL money is coming from and why. All the stats point to TEX as a substantial favorite. TEX has won 6 in a row against BAL, by a grand total of 60-15 (nope, not a typo).

My best guess is that this is a bet against Feliz. His ERA is 3.81, but his FIP is 5.30 and his SIERA is 5.02. Basically that means Feliz is due for a regression some time soon.

Also, in his last outing against the Yanks, Arrieta went 8IP, no runs, 9K's.

Still, something doesn't add up. No matter how you crunch the numbers, TEX should be -115 at the lowest. There has to be some other information that's fueling this play on BAL.

[GreyMatterStats]

For whatever it's worth, we have Texas 10 Baltimore 6 forecast for tonight.

[SkyBlues42]

Wow. If that score doesn't justify an over, then idk what would. How do you come up with your projected score?

[gynecologist]

(05-08-2012 04:19 PM)MrLomez Wrote:  Glad to see someone else was baffled by this line movement. I would love to know where this BAL money is coming from and why. All the stats point to TEX as a substantial favorite. TEX has won 6 in a row against BAL, by a grand total of 60-15 (nope, not a typo).

My best guess is that this is a bet against Feliz. His ERA is 3.81, but his FIP is 5.30 and his SIERA is 5.02. Basically that means Feliz is due for a regression some time soon.

Also, in his last outing against the Yanks, Arrieta went 8IP, no runs, 9K's.

Still, something doesn't add up. No matter how you crunch the numbers, TEX should be -115 at the lowest. There has to be some other information that's fueling this play on BAL.

you and I feel exactly the same about this one.

[GreyMatterStats]

There are many factors that we utilize such as head to head stats, performance off of wins and losses, away and home pitcher history at home field, etc.

That said, our MLB STD totals are disappointing to us at only 10 games over .500.

(05-08-2012 05:52 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Wow. If that score doesn't justify an over, then idk what would. How do you come up with your projected score?

[SkyBlues42]

Yeah, but when your projected score is a certain amount of runs over the total, what percentage is it hitting? For example: If you projected score is 5 runs over the listed total, what's the record. Or if it's 1-3 runs over?

If you don't already do that, I'd suggest keeping an eye on that. It could help you adjust things to better predict the final scores. Just an opinion.

[GreyMatterStats]

Those break downs for the current season can be found in the screen captures below.

Interestingly enough, this game represents our largest MLB Over "Overlay" STD at 7.5 runs.

We'll be keeping an interested eye on what happens in this game for both the side and total.




       

(05-08-2012 06:24 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Yeah, but when your projected score is a certain amount of runs over the total, what percentage is it hitting? For example: If you projected score is 5 runs over the listed total, what's the record. Or if it's 1-3 runs over?

If you don't already do that, I'd suggest keeping an eye on that. It could help you adjust things to better predict the final scores. Just an opinion.

[gynecologist]

hamilton is beasting