BTB's college football win totals thread

[Beyond the Bets]

Alphabetical, by team. Will start with teams 5Dimes has posted and then will work on some of the others.

Any questions, thoughts, etc., don't hesitate.

[Beyond the Bets]

ALABAMA'S SCHEDULE:

Michigan vs. Alabama -10 ................. 0.77
Western Kentucky at Alabama -38.5 ...... 1
Alabama -6.5 at Arkansas .................... 0.68
FAU at Alabama -44.5 ......................... 1
Ole Miss at Alabama -27 ...................... 1
Alabama -13 at Missouri ....................... 0.83
Alabama -12.5 at Tennessee ................. 0.82
Mississippi State at Alabama -18 ............ 0.95
Alabama at LSU -2 .............................. 0.47
Texas A&M at Alabama -21 ................... 1
Western Carolina at Alabama -56.5 ......... 1
Auburn at Alabama -16.5....................... 0.89

Guaranteed wins (6): Western Kentucky, FAU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Western Carolina.
Likely wins (5): Michigan, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Auburn.
Toss ups (1): LSU.

Projected wins: 10.41.

Analysis: Even at +140, it's hard to find value on the over 10.5, particularly if you think LSU wins the heads-up matchup in early November. The Michigan game, I think, is going to be a MF'ing battle. Saban tends to play big games close to the vest and the defense won't be where it needs to be in the opener against an offense with big-play potential.

I wouldn't be terribly shocked if Alabama drops either the Missouri or Tennessee road games. The Vols can sling it and will put a serious scare into at least a couple of superior teams at home.

If sportsbooks open Alabama's win total at 10, the over would be a strong bet on anything less than -150. But I don't see any value on the current 5Dimes line.

The play: Stay away.

[Beyond the Bets]

ARKANSAS' SCHEDULE:

Jacksonville State at Arkansas -36 ...... 1
Arkansas -27 at Louisiana-Monroe ....... 1
Alabama -6.5 at Arkansas .................. 0.32
Rutgers at Arkansas -14.5 ................. 0.87
Arkansas -3.5 at Texas A&M .............. 0.61
Arkansas -4.5 at Auburn ................... 0.63
Kentucky at Arkansas -24.5 ............... 1
Ole Miss at Arkansas -23 ................... 1
Tulsa at Arkansas -20.5 .................... 1
Arkansas -3 at South Carolina ............ 0.57
Arkansas -1 at Mississippi State .......... 0.51
LSU -3 at Arkansas ........................... 0.43

Guaranteed wins (6): Jacksonville State, Louisiana Monroe, Rutgers, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tulsa.
Likely wins (0): N/A
Toss ups: (5): Texas A&M, Auburn, South Carolina, Mississippi State, LSU.
Likely losses (1): Alabama.

Projected wins: 8.94

Analysis: A few of the projected spreads used in this post come from the Golden Nugget lines, which I don't necessarily agree with. For instance, why on earth is LSU a 3-point favorite at Arkansas while Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite? The LSU game is on a Friday night on Senior Day, so that's certainly worth a point and possibly two. But regardless, I have LSU as a better power rated team than Alabama and don't agree at the overall discrepancy here.

All that out of the way, let's break down the schedule: We have six wins that I'm willing to fill in right now - games against Jacksonville State, Monroe, Rutgers, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tulsa. Let's assume that Arkansas drops the two games against Alabama and LSU. That means they'd need three wins in the following four games to exceed the 8.5 win total: at Texas A&M, at Auburn, at South Carolina and at Mississippi.

Despite being a projected favorite in all four of 'em, I'm not confident that Arkansas will get a win in any of those games outside of the A&M matchup in late September.

I think there's a good chance Arkansas drops two of its first six games and will almost surely enter the bye week at 5-2. Then, from there, they'll likely win at home against Ole Miss and Tulsa to improve to 7-2.

But that closing stretch - at South Carolina, at Mississippi State and vs. LSU - is going to be tough. I'd be stunned if they finished 2-1. As a result, I might be inclined to go under here and see an eight-win season as slightly more likely than nine.

The play: Small lean 'under.'

[Beyond the Bets]

AUBURN'S SCHEDULE:

Clemson -3 vs. Auburn .................. 0.43
Auburn at Mississippi State -1.5 ..... 0.48
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn -26 ..... 1
LSU -7.5 at Auburn ...................... 0.27
Arkansas at Auburn -1 .................. 0.51
Auburn -7 at Ole Miss ................... 0.70
Auburn -4 at Vanderbilt ................. 0.62
Texas A&M at Auburn -9 ................ 0.75
New Mexico State at Auburn -34 ..... 1
Georgia -1.5 at Auburn .................. 0.48
Alabama A&M at Auburn -38.5 ......... 1
Auburn at Alabama -16.5 ................ 0.11

Guaranteed wins (3): Monroe, New Mexico State, Alabama A&M
Likely wins (2): Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Toss ups (5): Clemson, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Georgia.
Likely losses (1): LSU
Guaranteed losses (1): Alabama

Projected wins: 7.35

Analysis: Too much uncertainty surrounding this team, both in makeup (no Gus Malzahn, changing offense & QB) and schedule. With a win total this high and the 'guaranteed' wins so low, I generally look to play the under here. But at this point, I'm still very unsure of what this team is capable of doing, and with -180 juice on the under it's probably not worth my time.

If sportsbooks open it at 7, then I'd play the over.

The play: Stay away.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Good stuff. I assume you play the GOY matchups.

[Beyond the Bets]

Reserve the right to make tweaks to these (particularly in the shitty conferences), but will post these on the site soon enough. (Still need to do the independents).

* * *


ACC

BOSTON COLLEGE
Over 4.5 (-110)
Under 4.5 (-110)

CLEMSON
Over 8.5 (-130)
Under 8.5 (+110)

DUKE
Over 4 (-110)
Under 4 (-110)

FLORIDA STATE
Over 10 (-120)
Under 10 (even)

GEORGIA TECH
Over 7.5 (-125)
Under 7.5 (+105)

MARYLAND
Over 4 (-120)
Under 4 (even)

MIAMI
Over 6 (+110)
Under 6 (-130)

NORTH CAROLINA
Over 7.5 (-125)
Under 7.5 (+105)

NC STATE
Over 8 (-120)
Under 8 (even)

VIRGINIA
Over 6 (-130)
Under 6 (+110)

VIRGINIA TECH
Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-110)

WAKE FOREST
Over 6 (+120)
Under 6 (-140)

* * *

BIG 12

BAYLOR
Over 6 (-120)
Under 6 (even)

IOWA STATE
Over 4.5 (-130)
Under 4.5 (+110)

KANSAS
Over 3.5 (-120)
Under 3.5 (even)

KANSAS STATE
Over 8 (-135)
Under 8 (+115)

OKLAHOMA
Over 10 (-150)
Under 10 (+130)

OKLAHOMA STATE
Over 8.5 (-110)
Under 8.5 (-110)

TCU
Over 8.5 (-120)
Under 8.5 (even)

TEXAS
Over 9 (-120)
Under 9 (even)

TEXAS TECH
Over 7 (+110)
Under 7 (-130)

WEST VIRGINIA
Over 8.5 (-120)
Under 8.5 (even)

* * *

BIG EAST

CINCINNATI
Over 7.5 (even)
Under 7.5 (-120)

CONNECTICUT
Over 6.5 (+120)
Under 6.5 (-140)

LOUISVILLE
Over 9 (even)
Under 9 (-120)

PITTSBURGH
Over 7 (-130)
Under 7 (+110)

RUTGERS
Over 8.5 (-120)
Under 8.5 (even)

SYRACUSE
Over 5.5 (-125)
Under 5.5 (+105)

TEMPLE
Over 4 (+110)
Under 4 (-130)

USF
Over 7.5 (-110)
Under 7.5 (-110)

* * *

BIG TEN

ILLINOIS
Over 6 (+120)
Under 6 (-140)

INDIANA
Over 4 (+130)
Under 4 (-150)

IOWA
Over 8 (-110)
Under 8 (-110)

MICHIGAN
Over 8.5 (-140)
Under 8.5 (+120)

MICHIGAN STATE
Over 8 (-125)
Under 8 (+105)

MINNESOTA
Over 4.5 (+130)
Under 4.5 (-150)

NEBRASKA
Over 8.5 (-140)
Under 8.5 (+120)

NORTHWESTERN
Over 6 (-110)
Under 6 (-110)

OHIO STATE
Over 9 (-150)
Under 9 (+130)

PENN STATE
Over 6.5 (-110)
Under 6.5 (-110)

PURDUE
Over 6.5 (even)
Under 6.5 (-120)

WISCONSIN
Over 9.5 (even)
Under 9.5 (-120)

* * *

PAC-12

ARIZONA
Over 5.5 (-110)
Under 5.5 (-110)

ARIZONA STATE
Over 5 (+110)
Under 5 (-130)

CALIFORNIA
Over 6.5 (-110)
Under 6.5 (-110)

COLORADO
Over 4 (-110)
Under 4 (-110)

OREGON
Over 10.5 (-110)
Under 10.5 (-110)

OREGON STATE
Over 5.5 (+110)
Under 5.5 (-130)

STANFORD
Over 7.5 (-130)
Under 7.5 (+110)

UCLA
Over 6 (-110)
Under 6 (-110)

USC
Over 10.5 (-175)
Under 10.5 (+150)

UTAH
Over 8 (-125)
Under 8 (+105)

WASHINGTON
Over 7.5 (-120)
Under 7.5 (even)

WASHINGTON STATE
Over 5.5 (-120)
Under 5.5 (even)

* * *

SEC

ALABAMA
Over 10.5 (-110)
Under 10.5 (-110)

ARKANSAS
Over 9 (-120)
Under 9 (even)

AUBURN
Over 7.5 (+120)
Under 7.5 (-140)

FLORIDA
Over 8 (+125)
Under 8 (-145)

GEORGIA
Over 9.5 (-150)
Under 9.5 (+130)

KENTUCKY
Over 4.5 (-120)
Under 4.5 (even)

LSU
Over 10.5 (-130)
Under 10.5 (+110)

MISSISSIPPI STATE
Over 7.5 (-110)
Under 7.5 (-110)

MISSOURI
Over 7 (-110)
Under 7 (-110)

OLE MISS
Over 5 (+115)
Under 5 (-135)

SOUTH CAROLINA
Over 9 (-120)
Under 9 (even)

TENNESSEE
Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (+110)

TEXAS A&M
Over 6.5 (-120)
Under 6.5 (even)

VANDERBILT
Over 5.5 (-110)
Under 5.5 (-110)

* * *

C-USA

EAST CAROLINA
Over 6 (-120)
Under 6 (even)

HOUSTON
Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-110)

MARSHALL
Over 5.5 (+120)
Under 5.5 (-140)

MEMPHIS
Over 2 (-150)
Under 2 (+130)

RICE
Over 3.5 (-110)
Under 3.5 (-110)

SMU
Over 6.5 (-110)
Under 6.5 (-110)

SOUTHERN MISS
Over 7.5 (-120)
Under 7.5 (even)

TULANE
Over 1.5 (-175)
Under 1.5 (+150)

TULSA
Over 8.5 (-110)
Under 8.5 (-110)

UAB
Over 3 (-110)
Under 3 (-110)

UCF
Over 8.5 (-110)
Under 8.5 (-110)

UTEP
Over 8.5 (-110)
Under 8.5 (-110)

* * *

MAC
AKRON
Over 2.5 (even)
Under 2.5 (-120)

BALL STATE
Over 4.5 (-110)
Under 4.5 (-110)

BOWLING GREEN
Over 7 (-110)
Under 7 (-110)

BUFFALO
Over 2.5 (-150)
Under 2.5 (+130)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Over 4.5 (-125)
Under 4.5 (+105)

EASTERN MICHIGAN
Over 5 (-110)
Under 5 (-110)

KENT STATE
Over 5.5 (-110)
Under 5.5 (-110)

MASSACHUSETTS
Over 1 (-150)
Under 1 (+120)

MIAMI (OH)
Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (+110)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Over 8.5 (-110)
Under 8.5 (-110)

OHIO
Over 9.5 (even)
Under 9.5 (-120)

TOLEDO
Over 7 (-130)
Under 7 (+110)

WESTERN MICHIGAN
Over 8.5 (-120)
Under 8.5 (even)

* * *

MWC

AIR FORCE
Over 6.5 (-110)
Under 6.5 (-110)

BOISE STATE
Over 10 (+130)
Under 10 (-150)

COLORADO STATE
Over 4.5 (-130)
Under 4.5 (+110)

FRESNO STATE
Over 6 (+115)
Under 6 (-135)

HAWAII
Over 3.5 (-150)
Under 3.5 (+130)

NEVADA
Over 7.5 (-125)
Under 7.5 (+105)

NEW MEXICO
Over 2.5 (even)
Under 2.5 (-120)

SAN DIEGO STATE
Over 6 (-110)
Under 6 (-110)

UNLV
Over 3 (-110)
Under 3 (-110)

WYOMING
Over 6 (-120)
Under 6 (even)

* * *

SUN BELT
ARKANSAS STATE
Over 6.5 (-120)
Under 6.5 (even)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Over 2 (-150)
Under 2 (+130)

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Over 7.5 (-130)
Under 7.5 (+110)

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
Over 7 (-120)
Under 7 (even)

LOUISIANA-MONROE
Over 5 (-110)
Under 5 (-110)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Over 4.5 (-130)
Under 4.5 (+110)

NORTH TEXAS
Over 5 (-120)
Under 5 (even)

SOUTH ALABAMA
Over 2 (+130)
Under 2 (-150)

TROY
Over 5.5 (-110)
Under 5.5 (-110)

WESTERN KENTUCKY
Over 6 (even)
Under 6 (-120)

* * *

WAC

IDAHO
Over 3.5 (-110)
Under 3.5 (-110)

LOUISIANA TECH
Over 8 (-130)
Under 8 (+110)

NEW MEXICO STATE
Over 3.5 (-140)
Under 3.5 (+120)

SAN JOSE STATE
Over 5.5 (-150)
Under 5.5 (+130)

TEXAS STATE
Over 1 (-110)
Under 1 (-110)

UTAH STATE
Over 7 (-120)
Under 7 (even)

UTSA
Over 4 (-110)
Under 4 (-110)

[Beyond the Bets]

CLEMSON'S SCHEDULE:

Clemson -3 vs. Auburn .................. 0.57
Ball State at Clemson -27.5 .............. 1
Furman at Clemson -37.5 ................. 1
Clemson at Florida State -9.5 ........... 0.25
Clemson -7.5 at Boston College ........ 0.73
Georgia Tech at Clemson -6 ............. 0.66
Virginia Tech at Clemson -2.5 ........... 0.54
Clemson -5.5 at Wake Forest ........... 0.65
Clemson -14.5 at Duke ................... 0.87
Maryland at Clemson -17 ................. 0.91
NC State at Clemson -7 ................... 0.70
South Carolina -2.5 at Clemson ......... 0.46

Guaranteed wins (4): Ball State, Furman, Duke, Maryland.
Likely wins (4): Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State.
Toss ups (3): Auburn, Virginia Tech, South Carolina.
Likely losses (1): Florida State.

Projected wins: 8.34

Analysis: Why bother? This is a strong number. The total will likely be decided in the final week against South Carolina. If it opens at 9, go under. If it opens at 8, go over. At 8.5, there's no advantage to be had, unless you feel extremely confident about the Week 1 outcome.

The play: Stay away.

[HujoTDs]

I used your 798 projected spreads to calculate an expected wins total much the same way I did last year. Our "% win" for each spread value is similar but there are some slight differences thus we come to conclusions that are often similar but sometimes differ slightly.

There are 6 teams where my calculated wins and the above posted wins vary by greater than 2 games. There are an additional 16 teams where my calculated wins and the above posted wins vary by between 1 and 2 games.

I'm not sure how to post a table but here is an image of the data.
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-LiU7N...ential.png

[Beyond the Bets]

You're back! Great poster.

I'll take a look at the differences and offer some commentary in this thread.

[HujoTDs]

Any thoughts on that list of teams?

[tommyd10]

this is my favorite thing to bet on.... going to vegas end of august, was wondering what casinos would be offering cfb win totals... thanks for any feedback and awesome site

[Beyond the Bets]

Unless I'm mistaken, MGM/Mirage was the first to post CFB win totals last year. Wouldn't be terribly shocked if Cantor or LVH is first this year, though.

Expect to see totals posted in mid to late July.

[Beyond the Bets]

FLORIDA'S SCHEDULE:

Bowling Green at Florida -27.5 ......... 1
Florida -2.5 at Texas A&M .............. 0.54
Florida -4 at Tennessee ................. 0.62
Kentucky at Florida -24 .................. 1
LSU -6.5 at Florida ........................ 0.32
Florida -6 at Vanderbilt .................. 0.66
South Carolina at Florida -5 ............ 0.63
Florida vs. Georgia* -3.5 ................ 0.39
Missouri at Florida -9.5 ................... 0.75
Louisiana at Florida -28 ................... 1
Jacksonville State at Florida -35 ....... 1
Florida at Florida State -6.5 ............. 0.32

GUARANTEED WINS (4): Bowling Green, Kentucky, Louisiana, Jacksonville State.
LIKELY WINS (2): Missouri, Vanderbilt.
TOSS-UPS (4): Texas A&M, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia.
LIKELY LOSSES (2): LSU, Florida State

Projected wins: 8.23

Analysis: Lots of sharp bettors like Florida this year, and while I respect their opinion, I'm going to go ahead and disagree with it. Florida's offense was god-awful last year and now must operate with a new offensive coordinator and quarterback.

Demps and Rainey will be big losses, for sure, and the receivers - though talented - are still unproven. The o-line is solid, and that's good, because they'll have to be.

The guaranteed wins plus likely wins will get Florida to six. I give 'em the edge in the A&M game but think they'll get beat by Georgia and Tennessee.

So, can they steal ONE game against either LSU, Florida State or South Carolina?

The early-season schedule is what scares me. Will this team be capable of stealing back-to-back road games at Texas A&M and Tennessee in September? I'm not so sure. And if Florida splits 'em, they're looking at a 3-2 start entering the following stretch: at Vandy, South Carolina, Georgia, Missouri.

It's not inconceivable to think they'll go 2-2 in that run, which would get their record to 5-4. After wins against Louisiana and Jacksonville State, Florida will be 7-4 entering the finale at Florida State.

Sorry, no value here. If anything, it's on the under 7.5 at plus money. I expect the books to open Florida at 8, and if that happens, I think the under is an automatic play.

The pick: Stay away.

[Beyond the Bets]

For Lindetrain:

0 - 0.50
-0.5 - 0.50
-1 - 0.51
-1.5 - 0.52
-2 - 0.53
-2.5 - 0.54
-3 - 0.57
-3.5 - 0.61
-4 - 0.62
-4.5 - 0.63
-5 - 0.64
-5.5 - 0.65
-6 - 0.66
-6.5 - 0.68
-7 - 0.70
-7.5 - 0.73
-8 - 0.74
-8.5 - 0.75
-9 - 0.75
-9.5 - 0.75
-10 - 0.77
-10.5 - 0.79
-11 - 0.80
-11.5 - 0.81
-12 - 0.82
-12.5 - 0.83
-13 - 0.83
-13.5 - 0.84
-14 - 0.85
-14.5 - 0.87
-15 - 0.87
-15.5 - 0.88
-16 - 0.89
-16.5 - 0.89
-17 - 0.91
-17.5 - 0.94
-18 - 0.95
-18.5 - 0.96
-19 - 0.97
-19.5 - 0.98
-20 - 0.99
-21 - 1.00

[lindetrain]

Thank you sir

[lindetrain]

Here's what I've got (raw number in parentheses, adjusted number with juice factored in below):

ACC

Boston College (5.41)
O5.5 -120 / U5.5 -110

Clemson (8.54)
O8.5 -120 / U8.5 -110

Duke (4.72)
O4.5 -110 / U4.5 -120

Florida State (10.13)
O10 +110 / U10 -140

Georgia Tech (7.23)
O7 -130 / U7 +100

Maryland (4.88)
O5 +100 / U5 -130

Miami (4.96)
O6 -130 / U6 +100

NC State (7.78)
O7.5 -110 / U7.5 -120

North Carolina (8.59)
O8 -120 / U8 -110

Virginia (6.33)
O6.5 -110 / U6.5 -120

Virginia Tech (8.84)
O9 -120 / U9 -110

Wake Forest (4.56)
O5 +100 / U5 -130

Big East

Cincinnati (6.95)
O7 +100 / U7 -130

Connecticut (6.32)
O6 -120 / U6 -110

Louisville (8.05)
O8 -120 / U8 -110

Pittsburgh (7.23)
O7 -140 / U7 +110

Rutgers (7.37)
O7 -120 / U7 -110

Syracuse (4.69)
O4.5 -130 / U4.5 +100

Temple (3.32)
O3.5 -120 / U3.5 -110

USF (8.25)
O8 -140 / U8 +110

Big Ten

Illinois (6.79)
O6.5 -130 / U6.5 +100

Indiana (3.4)
O3.5 -120 / U3.5 -110

Iowa (7.46)
O7.5 -110 / U7.5 -120

Michigan (8.45)
O8.5 -130 / U8.5 +100

Michigan State (8.63)
O8.5 -120 / U8.5 -110

Minnesota (4.12)
O4.5 -110 / U4.5 -120

Nebraska (9.08)
O9 -120 / U9 -110

Northwestern (5.46)
O6 +100 / U6 -130

Ohio State (9.11)
O9 -110 / U9 -120

Penn State (7.07)
O7 +100 / U7 -130

Purdue (6.49)
O6 -140 / U6 +110

Wisconsin (9.65)
O9.5 -130 / U9.5 +100

Big XII

Baylor (5.89)
O6 -140 / U6 +110

Iowa State (3.73)
O4 -120 / U4 -110

Kansas (2.78)
O3 -130 / U3 +100

Kansas State (7.20)
O7.5 -120 / U7.5 -110

Oklahoma (10.28)
O10 -110 / U10 -120

Oklahoma State (8.73)
O8.5 +110 / U8.5 -140

TCU (7.72)
O8 +110 / U8 -140

Texas (9.45)
O9 -120 / U9 -110

Texas Tech (7.24)
O7 -130 / U7 +100

West Virginia (8.57)
O8.5 -120 / U8.5 -110

Pac 12

Arizona (5.64)
O6 +110 / U6 -140

Arizona State (4.45)
O5 -110 / U5 -120

California (6.10)
O6 -130 / U6 +100

Colorado (3.56)
O3.5 -130 / U3.5 +100

Oregon (10.71)
O10.5 +110 / U10.5 -140

Oregon State (5.77)
O6 -110 / U6 -120

Stanford (7.67)
O7.5 -130 / U7.5 +100

UCLA (6.35)
O6.5 -120 / U6.5 -110

USC (10.57)
O10.5 -110 / U10.5 -120

Utah (7.81)
O7.5 -140 / U7.5 +110

Washington (5.39)
O6.5 -120 / U6.5 -110

Washington State (5.52)
O5.5 +100 / U5.5 -130

SEC

Alabama (10.01)
O10 -130 / U10 +100

Arkansas (8.36)
O8.5 -140 / U8.5 +110

Auburn (7.05)
O7 -120 / U7 -110

Florida (8.49)
O8.5 +110 / U8.5 -140

Georgia (9.85)
O9.5 -130 / U9.5 +100

Kentucky (3.32)
O4 -110 / U4 -120

LSU (9.97)
O10 -140 / U10 +110

Mississippi State (7.97)
O7.5 -120 / U7.5 -110

Missouri (6.94)
O7 -110 / U7 -120

Ole Miss (3.74)
O4.5 +100 / U4.5 -130

South Carolina (8.26)
O8.5 +110 / U8.5 -140

Tennessee (7.51)
O7 -130 / U7 +100

Texas A&M (6.61)
O6.5 -130 / U6.5 +100

Vanderbilt (5.74)
O5.5 -120 / U5.5 -110

[JayPrimetown]

This is pretty fascinating... need to delve into this sometime in the next couple weeks. Already played the Marshall win total as suggested by BTB... I'm sure there are a couple others that really stand out.

[SkyBlues42]

Lindetrain, you probably set the most appropriate number for Oregon. Makes you actually think about the bet. I saw at one book they had the Ducks listed at O/U 9.5 with juice at a ridiculous price (the over like was like -300 or more). And at 10, it seems like your worst case is a push.

[lindetrain]

(07-01-2012 09:40 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Lindetrain, you probably set the most appropriate number for Oregon. Makes you actually think about the bet. I saw at one book they had the Ducks listed at O/U 9.5 with juice at a ridiculous price (the over like was like -300 or more). And at 10, it seems like your worst case is a push.

As you can see, Oregon has the highest expected win total of any BCS team just based on raw numbers. Outside USC, I think I have them DD faves in every other game. Really tough to see them losing twice, and near impossible to see them losing three times.

[JetsMetsRangers]

Does anyone know when this will be back up on 5dimes? Thanks