Big Time Favorites over Better Talent

[HujoTDs]

So tonight while watching MNF I thought I would apply the conclusions of College Football Matrix to the BTB predicted spreads.

College Football Matrix is a cool website and I recommend checking it out. They've proved that the team with the better 4 year composite recruiting ranking wins straight up 70+% of the time.

My objective was to look into games where the better recruited team is the underdog. I've found 30 such cases where not only is the better recruited team the dog but they're a double digit dog.

Some are explainable (Ohio St-Nebraska) but some are surprising (Oregon St-Wisconsin).

One observations is it surprised me how poorly Nevada had recruited (even relative to UNLV) and makes me wonder how much of their success was due to Colin Kaepernick who likewise was only offered a scholarship but one school.

Any observations you guys derive?

(Also, anyway to format tables in this forum?)

Team A Team B Spread Recruiting Difference
Oregon State Wisconsin 15.5 -2
Navy Western Kentucky -14.5 2.75
Nevada San Jose State -12.5 3.5
Washington State San Diego State 12.5 -28.75
UCF BYU 10 -5.25
Bowling Green Miami (OH) 10.5 -10.75
UCLA Stanford 14 -9.25
Clemson Virginia Tech 10.5 -5.25
Auburn South Carolina 10 -11
SMU TCU 10 -3
Boise State Fresno State -16 4
Auburn Arkansas 10 -16.75
Bowling Green Western Michigan 11.5 -2.25
UNLV Nevada 19.5 -9.75
Ohio State Nebraska 10 -17.25
New Mexico Nevada 21 -8
East Carolina Memphis -10 11.5
Washington Stanford 10.5 -1.25
Akron Miami (OH) 15.5 -9.75
Northern Illinois Bowling Green -11 10
Tennessee Arkansas 11.5 -10.5
Marshall Tulsa 13.5 -1
TCU Boise State 14.5 -6.25
Minnesota Northwestern 13.5 -9.5
Utah Washington State -15 4.25
New Mexico Wyoming 14.5 -3.75
Louisiana Tech Nevada 12 -14.25
UNLV Air Force 20.5 -1.5
USC Oregon 10 -13.5
Akron Western Michigan 17.5 -1.25