Aussie Open, Tennis Resources

[mattrud]

With the Aussie Open about to kick off, I'm trying to get up to speed with tennis.

I've played tennis my whole life and watched a ton, so I know the game well. But I've never done much tennis betting and didn't follow the sport as closely as I normally do during the past year.

So, what are some good sites for tennis betting info, whether it's stats, previews or anything else?

And who ya got winning this thing? I think Nadal is being overlooked despite his issues...

[spanishredeye]

Apparently this site is pretty good.
I have no idea how anything works though... so, good luck!

http://matchstat.com/

[mattrud]

(01-13-2012 08:48 AM)spanishredeye Wrote:  Apparently this site is pretty good.
I have no idea how anything works though... so, good luck!

http://matchstat.com/

Haha, thanks! I'll check it out.

[mattrud]

So how dumb is it to do a big parlay on a few heavy ML favs in the first round of the Aussie:

For example, how stupid would I be for placing this?:

   

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I'm thinking about a Delpo/Felician/Fish/Querrey/Baghdatis parlay, $100 to win $117.25.

Am I the dumbest gambler alive?

[jimmysingh9]

Betting ML fav parlays are really good. but be you have to be very specific on betting for certain players and staying away from guys that are on bad form or can be upset very easily. Also look at the player you are playing against. Is he a big server? how are they head to head? style of play. success in past tourneys there.

Fish is a person I would usually bet on for ML parlays, he has played well for the past year. However Giles Muller is a big server and could be a tiebreak nightmare if his serve is on. I wouldnt trust Baggy just because he is prone to being upset and I think everyone remembers his dream aussie run but he is hit or miss.

Personally for me the players you want to back right now have too big of odds attached to them but you may find better value in the 2nd or 3rd rounds with the better plays. out the 5 players you have. I would back fish and del potro as big favs against most players, but Fish is playing that big server. DelPo looks good.


Another tip I've gotten in the past by a very respectible tennis capper is dont bet women's tennis, It can be so random. Almost like flipping a coin at times. However there are certain women I do back against certain matchups. Kvitova has been playing great of late but she is the fav right now and odds too low. stosur maybe at +1500.

[GrandaddyCrunk]

Hewitt is scary because he's just not the same player nowadays, however, he will fight for it, especially because he's playing in Australia.

Other really scary one is Wawrinka, who is completely unstable now that he is without Lundgren, again. He can play great and hang with the top players on his good day, but he can struggle against qualifiers on his bad day.

The one I have lined up is...

1/15/2012 8:30 PM ATP Tennis 270 Sam Querrey* -495 vs Kenny De Schepper
1/15/2012 11:30 PM ATP Tennis 325 John Isner* -1378 vs Benjamin Mitchell
1/16/2012 3:00 AM ATP Tennis 330 David Nalbandian* -145 vs Jarkko Nieminen
1/15/2012 7:00 PM ATP Tennis 334 Nikolay Davydenko* -305 vs Flavio Cipolla
1/16/2012 7:00 PM ATP Tennis 185 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez* -210 vs Mikhail Kukushkin
1/16/2012 7:00 PM ATP Tennis 226 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga* -950 vs Denis Istomin
1/15/2012 7:00 PM WTA Tennis 465 Victoria Azarenka* -2750 vs Heather Watson
1/16/2012 7:00 PM WTA Tennis 542 Kaia Kanepi* -1200 vs Johanna Larsson
1/16/2012 7:00 PM WTA Tennis 625 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova* -320 vs Klara Zakopalova

Will probably change a couple things around before making it final though. Pays about +595, btw.

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My only future for this tournament is a small stakes bet on Kanepi to win at 25/1.

[mattrud]

Awesome stuff guys, thanks.

Noticed an interesting H2H stat looking at the first round.

Jurgen Melzer (-180) vs. Ivo Karlovic (+155)

Melzer is 5-0 lifetime against Karlovic.

I know Ivo is a guy who can beat anyone because of his serve, but this really stood out to me.

Melzer is also coming off of wins against Monfils and Tsonga. Any reason not to back Jurgen heavily here?

[jimmysingh9]

Melzer isnt a bad bet. no such thing as a lock in tennis. but you are right, Melzer has had success against Karlovic. He beat him in straight sets in 2007 in the aussie open. Karlovic hasnt been hot in his last couple of tourneys. In 2010, he did have a decent Aussie Open run getting to the quarters and taking a set from Rafa. Other than that he hasnt done much at the aussie open.

Melzer however hasnt gotten out of the 2nd round of a tourney since July. He did have those wins that you state in exhibition, but he had a really bad year in 2011. not sure if he had any injuries or personal problems.

And actually looking at their H2H, I am not sure if Karlovic has even won a set against Melzer so thinking that Karlovic will take 3 sets in one match may be hard to imagine. Melzer did win 3 of the matches on hard court which is good as well. Karlovic is the older of the 2 by 2 years so he may be wearing down more.

Maybe also check how Karlovic is against left handers and if lefties give him problems as Melzer is one.

[Beyond the Bets]

I will have an Aussie Open post today!? Actually pretty pumped for tennis, to be honest.

[The Cosmic Kid]

(01-15-2012 01:02 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Another tip I've gotten in the past by a very respectible tennis capper is dont bet women's tennis, It can be so random. Almost like flipping a coin at times. However there are certain women I do back against certain matchups. Kvitova has been playing great of late but she is the fav right now and odds too low. stosur maybe at +1500.

I am not a respectable tennis capper, so I often bet women's tennis. I normally take underdogs (due to the unpredictable nature mentioned above). I feel like WTA often presents a ton of value because nobody is paying attention.

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After looking at the women's draw, I think Li Na (Na Li?) has some pretty good value at +1000. She's been playing great tennis, was the runner up last year and recently broke through to win a major. I'm not sure about Clijsters this year, so I think Na is a decent play.

[DOP]

is there a website that keeps track of tennis lines and line movements (for current AND previous action), similar to what scoresandodds.com does for the major US sports?

thanks dudes.

[Beyond the Bets]

Great question. I tend to think not, but maybe one of those european sites do.

[mattrud]

(01-15-2012 10:27 PM)DOP Wrote:  is there a website that keeps track of tennis lines and line movements (for current AND previous action), similar to what scoresandodds.com does for the major US sports?

thanks dudes.

This is really confusing, but the best thing I've found.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/tennis/

[The Peoples Champ]

(01-15-2012 10:27 PM)DOP Wrote:  is there a website that keeps track of tennis lines and line movements (for current AND previous action), similar to what scoresandodds.com does for the major US sports?

thanks dudes.

Ask and you shall receive. OddsPortal.com tracks all everything in European odds, which is a pain in the ass, but a few quick clicks can get you to a converter, or you can just follow along in those odds and see where the money is going. Below is the Aussie Open ATP page, click on a respective match (the names) and then scroll your mouse over the numbers for a history of where the odds have been.

http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/austral...lian-open/

They also have a neat dropping odds tab which tabulates matches that are experiencing an unusually large adjustment, which may be interesting for you soccer guys.

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By the way, there is some great information above, but any of you tennis guys that would mind sharing some more insight on betting the sport would be much obliged from this corner. Something I always had an interest in, but never bet on, because, well, I had no idea who the hell to pick, or what ways or reasons to go about doing so.

[mattrud]

Went 1-1 on ML plays today, lost Melzer (-180) and won Donald Young (-150).

Melzer got beaten handily, despite being 5-0 career against Ivo. Oh well.

Young was cruising, then almost choked before winning in five. He was even down a break in the fifth despite winning the first two sets.

Parlays were a surprising success.

#1: Baghdatis, Querrey, Wawrinka, Fish, Delpo. Won and paid +141.

I'm not even close to an expert, but it seems like 1st round parlays are a good idea. None of these guys really broke a sweat.

#2: Same, but subbed in Feliciano Lopez for Wawrinka. They were the two with the most parlay-busting potential IMO. Paid +117.

Again, not much of a sweat.

I have a huge one that I'm waiting on as well.

Delpo, Dolgopolov, Isner, Murray, Simon, Monfils, Nishikori, Tsonga. Pays -134.

Honestly, not sure why I did that one. It has a good, maybe great chance of hitting, but did I really bet a 8-player parlay that paid just -134? Guess so. Also, Dolgopolov nearly blew it. Shouldn't bet on inconsistent guys like him in parlays. Especially at a crazy-high price. Brain-fart there.

Still, first day of tennis betting was a big success. The first two parlays were pretty big plays and more than cancelled out my small ML losses.

[Beyond the Bets]

Some might find this useful from @So_Money_Sports.

[jimmysingh9]

(01-16-2012 03:14 AM)mattrud Wrote:  Went 1-1 on ML plays today, lost Melzer (-180) and won Donald Young (-150).

Melzer got beaten handily, despite being 5-0 career against Ivo. Oh well.

Young was cruising, then almost choked before winning in five. He was even down a break in the fifth despite winning the first two sets.

Parlays were a surprising success.

#1: Baghdatis, Querrey, Wawrinka, Fish, Delpo. Won and paid +141.

I'm not even close to an expert, but it seems like 1st round parlays are a good idea. None of these guys really broke a sweat.

#2: Same, but subbed in Feliciano Lopez for Wawrinka. They were the two with the most parlay-busting potential IMO. Paid +117.

Again, not much of a sweat.

I have a huge one that I'm waiting on as well.

Delpo, Dolgopolov, Isner, Murray, Simon, Monfils, Nishikori, Tsonga. Pays -134.

Honestly, not sure why I did that one. It has a good, maybe great chance of hitting, but did I really bet a 8-player parlay that paid just -134? Guess so. Also, Dolgopolov nearly blew it. Shouldn't bet on inconsistent guys like him in parlays. Especially at a crazy-high price. Brain-fart there.

Still, first day of tennis betting was a big success. The first two parlays were pretty big plays and more than cancelled out my small ML losses.

congrats. good stuff. i was hoping you kept your parlays. good to hear. ML parlay are never a bad thing, just you are bound to see upsets in major tennis, you just gotta hope to heck that one of the guys you played is not on that list.

I read something on this on twitter and thought I should mention this but when playing tennis. PLEASE READ THE RULES OF YOUR SPORTSBOOK.

I use 5dimes/bet365 mostly for tennis. there are much better books and in tennis you can shop around and find alot of different prices for players, but I dont bet it heavily enough.

For 5dimes. If a match doesnt finish the 1st set, the match is graded as a no play. If a player retires(injuries) after the 1st set, the ML is always graded regardless. The spread will be a no bet as well as the over/under. Sometimes when you do have a even matchup and injuries are a concern to you, you may want to think of taking the spread to cover the retirement of of your bet. But then be careful as your play could win but game could be something like this 7-6,0-6,7-6,7-6 and you could lose your spread bet.

[mattrud]

(01-16-2012 04:38 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I read something on this on twitter and thought I should mention this but when playing tennis. PLEASE READ THE RULES OF YOUR SPORTSBOOK.

I use 5dimes/bet365 mostly for tennis. there are much better books and in tennis you can shop around and find alot of different prices for players, but I dont bet it heavily enough.

For 5dimes. If a match doesnt finish the 1st set, the match is graded as a no play. If a player retires(injuries) after the 1st set, the ML is always graded regardless. The spread will be a no bet as well as the over/under. Sometimes when you do have a even matchup and injuries are a concern to you, you may want to think of taking the spread to cover the retirement of of your bet. But then be careful as your play could win but game could be something like this 7-6,0-6,7-6,7-6 and you could lose your spread bet.

Thanks for that. I made my plays on BetOnline, and they had the same rules. Doesn't seem like a great place to bet tennis is I'm doing it regularly, though.

Also, pretty crazy that you can lose a spread bet if your player wins. I used to win matches like that all of the time in my tennis career, haha

[The Peoples Champ]

Bump Bump for second round of action today.

Did okay last night, but want to do some more research since I'll have time today later this afternoon. Anything in particular anyone is looking at?

[jimmysingh9]

havent seen anything i love as of yet, but I am looking at Dmitrov +155 and +2 -110. Almagro is known as a clay court player but he has a hard court game. plays well at times, but i dont trust him as a favourite right now. Dmitrov is obviously a prodigy but not sure if he is going to be the next good player or the next kuznetsov. He does have the game to beat Almagro, so may look at taking that price.

And this may sound dumb, but So Money is on Almagro so you may get a better price on Dmitrov later once people may decided they want action on tennis and may tail his picks and money comes on Almagro