Anyone Make Soccer Plays?

[mount187]

Big slate of UCL soccer for today. Anyone have any thoughts?

Chelsea isn't playing a gimme, but they're a +140 on the m/l at my book. Seems like there is some value there. It's a tough play to take, because Chelsea is on the road, and would probably settle for a draw. Torres looks like he's coming back into form though, and the red card he took last weekend doesn't affect his UCL status (though I haven't seen a lineup). Drogba came back from injury last weekend late in their BPL game, so he should be good to go too (again, no lineup yet).

The only other play I think is interesting, but won't be taking is the draw in Olympiakos @ Arsenal. Arsenal is the better team, but they have a bunch of injuries and are missing at least three starters for this game. Olympiakos would probably celebrate a draw here, and I'm not sure Arsenal has enough fire power on the field to get the job done.

Other teams that are interesting, but don't have enough value are Porto on the road (their front-man, Hulk, is properly name; dude's a beast) and Dortmund on the road. A lot of people think Dortmund has a shot to come out of their group as a low seed, and they a dog on the road today. Both games could easily end in draws though, and don't have much (if any) value.

An interesting parlay I looked at earlier was Barca to win (@ BATE), AC Milan to win (home v V. Plzen), and Chelsea to win. I believe the payout is +225, with Barca and Milan being virtual locks. There's never a sure thing in sports, but Barca and Milan should walk in these games. Of course, you would have thought United would take home a win against a team from the Swiss top tier after being up 2-0 after 60' minutes, but strange things happen in soccer.

[jimmysingh9]

I played Arsenal. Olympiakos are terrible travelers in Europe and didnt show much at home against Marseille. While Arsenal does have injuries, I still expect them to win this one quite easy and played the -1 at even

[mount187]

(09-28-2011 11:02 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I played Arsenal. Olympiakos are terrible travelers in Europe and didnt show much at home against Marseille. While Arsenal does have injuries, I still expect them to win this one quite easy and played the -1 at even

My concerns with that game were a) Olympiakos is going to play for a point on the road and b) Gervinho, Koscielny, and Walcott were added to the injury list today. They were already missing Wilshere and Diaby. They did make some nice signings to shore up their back line though. I'd also be concerned that they might be looking ahead to their derby this weekend against Spurs, though it's unlikely they look past a UCL match.

Arsenal is still a very good side though. Good luck today.

[jimmysingh9]

i put the gervinho, walcott injuries into consideration. this is just as much of a fade of olympiakos.

I believe the ball possession will be literally 70-30 to arsenal and it all depends on how early they score. if they get one in the first half, then i see them winning 2-0, 3-0.

a 1-0 pushes, so no harm.

---

I would be careful with that chelsea bet. Valencia played extremely well against barcelona at home 2 weeks ago and were actually the better team a big part of that match. Chelsea has had problems in CL away from home. Atletico Madrid comes to mind last year or 2 years ago. game played to a draw.

[SkyBlues42]

(09-28-2011 11:25 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  i put the gervinho, walcott injuries into consideration. this is just as much of a fade of olympiakos.

I believe the ball possession will be literally 70-30 to arsenal and it all depends on how early they score. if they get one in the first half, then i see them winning 2-0, 3-0.

a 1-0 pushes, so no harm.

---

I would be careful with that chelsea bet. Valencia played extremely well against barcelona at home 2 weeks ago and were actually the better team a big part of that match. Chelsea has had problems in CL away from home. Atletico Madrid comes to mind last year or 2 years ago. game played to a draw.

Chelsea is a team I like to avoid betting on. Can be quite unpredictable. Even when they got Torres, everyone expected him and Drogba to dominate up top.

That didn't happen. The two were never on the same page and they were forced to rely on Drogba to carry them. He's getting older and won't be able to maintain in a league that's full of talented youths.

[mount187]

Hard to make arguments against either of those points.

It's nice to know there is a fellow Citizen on the boards though. ;)

[Beyond the Bets]

I make soccer plays — with my feet. I am absolutely, positively Las Vegas's best new soccer player. Bought a ball last week, got my soccer (cleats), and now I just need to find a net to score on.

[mount187]

(09-28-2011 12:56 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I make soccer plays — with my feet. I am absolutely, positively Las Vegas's best new soccer player. Bought a ball last week, got my soccer (cleats), and now I just need to find a net to score on.

I need my Fry meme: "Can't tell if trolling, or genuinely playing soccer."

[SkyBlues42]

(09-28-2011 12:56 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I make soccer plays — with my feet. I am absolutely, positively Las Vegas's best new soccer player. Bought a ball last week, got my soccer (cleats), and now I just need to find a net to score on.

hard to believe

[mount187]

(09-28-2011 10:52 AM)mount187 Wrote:  Big slate of UCL soccer for today. Anyone have any thoughts?

Chelsea isn't playing a gimme, but they're a +140 on the m/l at my book. Seems like there is some value there. It's a tough play to take, because Chelsea is on the road, and would probably settle for a draw. Torres looks like he's coming back into form though, and the red card he took last weekend doesn't affect his UCL status (though I haven't seen a lineup). Drogba came back from injury last weekend late in their BPL game, so he should be good to go too (again, no lineup yet).

The only other play I think is interesting, but won't be taking is the draw in Olympiakos @ Arsenal. Arsenal is the better team, but they have a bunch of injuries and are missing at least three starters for this game. Olympiakos would probably celebrate a draw here, and I'm not sure Arsenal has enough fire power on the field to get the job done.

Other teams that are interesting, but don't have enough value are Porto on the road (their front-man, Hulk, is properly name; dude's a beast) and Dortmund on the road. A lot of people think Dortmund has a shot to come out of their group as a low seed, and they a dog on the road today. Both games could easily end in draws though, and don't have much (if any) value.

An interesting parlay I looked at earlier was Barca to win (@ BATE), AC Milan to win (home v V. Plzen), and Chelsea to win. I believe the payout is +225, with Barca and Milan being virtual locks. There's never a sure thing in sports, but Barca and Milan should walk in these games. Of course, you would have thought United would take home a win against a team from the Swiss top tier after being up 2-0 after 60' minutes, but strange things happen in soccer.

Recap:

Chelsea lead 1-0 until stoppage time, where they were drawn 1-1. (+1 SkyBlue42, +1 jimmysingh9)

Arsenal got up 2-0 early and hung on 2-1 (+1 jimmysingh9)

Porto went up 1-0 early, got tied near the end of the 1H and then had a player get sent off on a second yellow (lost 1-3)

Dortmund got bombed 3-0 by the Frenchies

Parlay looked like a missed opportunity, as Barca and Milan cruised, but Chelsea's last draw would have killed it off

Thanks to everyone who offered opinions. Saved me some cash by avoiding risky wagers. In the end, I ended up with a parlay of just Barca and Milan (-249) that cashed (after reading SkyBlue42's article linked on big m/l favorites). Thanks again!

[SkyBlues42]

(09-28-2011 03:41 PM)mount187 Wrote:  

(09-28-2011 10:52 AM)mount187 Wrote:  Big slate of UCL soccer for today. Anyone have any thoughts?

Chelsea isn't playing a gimme, but they're a +140 on the m/l at my book. Seems like there is some value there. It's a tough play to take, because Chelsea is on the road, and would probably settle for a draw. Torres looks like he's coming back into form though, and the red card he took last weekend doesn't affect his UCL status (though I haven't seen a lineup). Drogba came back from injury last weekend late in their BPL game, so he should be good to go too (again, no lineup yet).

The only other play I think is interesting, but won't be taking is the draw in Olympiakos @ Arsenal. Arsenal is the better team, but they have a bunch of injuries and are missing at least three starters for this game. Olympiakos would probably celebrate a draw here, and I'm not sure Arsenal has enough fire power on the field to get the job done.

Other teams that are interesting, but don't have enough value are Porto on the road (their front-man, Hulk, is properly name; dude's a beast) and Dortmund on the road. A lot of people think Dortmund has a shot to come out of their group as a low seed, and they a dog on the road today. Both games could easily end in draws though, and don't have much (if any) value.

An interesting parlay I looked at earlier was Barca to win (@ BATE), AC Milan to win (home v V. Plzen), and Chelsea to win. I believe the payout is +225, with Barca and Milan being virtual locks. There's never a sure thing in sports, but Barca and Milan should walk in these games. Of course, you would have thought United would take home a win against a team from the Swiss top tier after being up 2-0 after 60' minutes, but strange things happen in soccer.

Recap:

Chelsea lead 1-0 until stoppage time, where they were drawn 1-1. (+1 SkyBlue42, +1 jimmysingh9)

Arsenal got up 2-0 early and hung on 2-1 (+1 jimmysingh9)

Porto went up 1-0 early, got tied near the end of the 1H and then had a player get sent off on a second yellow (lost 1-3)

Dortmund got bombed 3-0 by the Frenchies

Parlay looked like a missed opportunity, as Barca and Milan cruised, but Chelsea's last draw would have killed it off

Thanks to everyone who offered opinions. Saved me some cash by avoiding risky wagers. In the end, I ended up with a parlay of just Barca and Milan (-249) that cashed (after reading SkyBlue42's article linked on big m/l favorites). Thanks again!