5Dimes 1st 10 minutes

[Beyond the Bets]

Tried this for 25 games with small amounts and went 20-5. Yes, 20-5. It is a simple strategy and the sample size is too small to take the results seriously, but I figured I'd start to post these and track them for the hell of it.

Now that I'm tracking this, it will go 5-20.

Basic concept is this: Any time you have 1.5 points of value relative to the first half total, you bet the over. See the photo below. Also a play: Michigan State-Central Connecticut over 31.5 (1st 10). There's another way of doing this for unders, but I'll explain that another time.

[oddsok]

Others that qualify:

Xavier Butler o28 (58 for 1H)

[Beyond the Bets]

Got it, thanks.

[Jaeger62]

Also, Pepperdine vs N. Arizona

[Beyond the Bets]

Yep.

[Jaeger62]

I'm playing along with small plays on the Florida and Pepperdine games. If they split or go 2-0 I'll do the Xavier play as well

[victortrash]

I think the maths portion of my brain went on vacation today. Can someone explain what 1.5 pts of value relative to the first half mean?

[Beyond the Bets]

For example: If first half over/under is 69, and first 10 minutes over/under is 33.5, you bet the over. 33.5 x 2 = 67 (two points of value against the 69.)

[victortrash]

jeebus...need to borrow your shoe *hits face*, lol! Mucho thanks for simplifying it for me.

[oddsok]

(12-07-2011 06:09 PM)Jaeger62 Wrote:  Also, Pepperdine vs N. Arizona

I see: o59 1.909 o29½ 1.909

Has this one moved?

[Beyond the Bets]

Yeah, it moved.

[oddsok]

CCSU and MSU hits easy first up.

[Jaeger62]

Didnt work out so well in Florida. Pace was there, % not so much. This game could heat up, they're at UFs pace

[boro2517]

How many games a night do you think meet this criteria? Just looking over 5d now don't see any but obviously there's been movement.

[Beyond the Bets]

Usually a handful. The concept is so elementary and stupid it's probably not worthwhile to even track or follow, but I like to do stupid things with the "contest account" to earn a little extra money for you guys to win.

[atk825]

I don't understand this theory. Shouldn't there be more scoring in the second ten minutes than there are in the first 10 minutes with all of the extra free throws that happen in the final 10?

[RyanParrill]

(12-07-2011 09:24 PM)atk825 Wrote:  I don't understand this theory. Shouldn't there be more scoring in the second ten minutes than there are in the first 10 minutes with all of the extra free throws that happen in the final 10?

This is the hypothesis. At the moment, BTB would conclude that's not true. Maybe one of the thoughts/possibility of FT's that makes this possible.

Or, you could perform a second experiment with the 2nd 10 minutes, testing this.

[oddsok]

27 in 1st 10 of Xavier Butler

[Jaeger62]

Lol, I went 0-3 tonight

[Beyond the Bets]

Now I might have to post screen shots to verify the 20-5 .

As for the logic behind this: There really isn't any. In theory, the second 10 minutes should be higher scoring than the first 10 minutes because of free throws, but at the same time, the final 60-90 seconds tends to slow to a crawl, too.