2-8-12 NBA/NHL/NCAAB

[VincentValour]

Let's get this going.

A few thoughts on the NBA, I think since 1/3 of the season is done, regression is kicking in. So be careful about capping based on previous numbers this season. It looks like the overs are starting to hit, and offenses are really starting to mesh. From a totals capping perspective I'm going to focus more on pace, as I believe that is something that will stay constant going forward. The offensive and defensive numbers from earlier in the season might not be applicable.

Also need to start looking at the market value of teams, to find teams to fade and teams to play going forward. Who has been in some really nice spots early on, and who has been in some rough spots early on.


Play on - the Knicks

Finally think this team has reached it's fair market price. Now with Melo out I think there is some real value to be had playing on this team. Last year before the Melo deal the Knicks were ATS killers, so far this year they have been awful. With just Amare' as their isolation guy, they can finally start playing team basketball with Amare' Chandler, and their guard crew. Also the emerging Lin is very nice for NYK. Don't know what the deal is with Melo, but the Knicks might be better without him. For sure the markets will give more value with him out. Also despite having 10-15 record the Knicks have a positive point differential. They should be a couple games better than their record. Will dig into more teams as the week goes on.

Now the leans.

Knicks/Wizards Over 195

These teams are very close in pace. The Knicks 2nd at 96.1 and Wizards tied for third at 95.9. So we can assume it will be a fast paced game. Guessing this line is a little short due to the Knicks scratches, not sure that will matter. Knicks will get scoring from somewhere against this awful Wizards D. Also looking to get on the overs as I think offenses are clicking more now.

Porland/Houston over 198

Pretty much same reasoning here. Both teams play at a very high pace. Houston is not known for their defense. Both teams come off tiring games as Portland went to overtime with OKC the other night, and Houston won in Denver in the thin air vs that fast pace team.

Smaller leans

Portland -2 tease
Clippers -1/2 tease

Portland -2
Both these teams in good situations, as Portland plays host to Houston, who is coming off a nice win in Denver. It's really tough to win two in row on the road. Portland comes off a b.s. loss against OKC at home the other night. They should come out pissed off and try to run Houston off the court, with their home advantage they should be able to.

Clippers -1/2

Usually don't like to tease road teams, but really like the spot the Clippers are in. Cleveland just played a tough game vs. Miami. They stayed close most of the game, but just ran out of gas in the end. Now they stay home and play a B2B against the high flying Clippers. I think Cleveland continues to feel fatigue like they did in the 4th quarter vs the Heat, and the Clippers come in and jump on them early. Very tough to lay -5.5 with a road team so think teasing is the best option.

CBB

St. Johns +4

Like St. Johns as a home dog here. I have this game as a pick em' yet St. Johns is getting the key number threshold of +4. Cincy has been better on the year but the strength of schedule has been much easier.
St Johns 30th in strength of schedule, Cincy 150th. Pretty much a value play for me.

Penn St. +17

I hit this number really early, now line is looking like +15.5 or so. Still value to be had, as I had this game capped at -11. Michigan St also in a let down spot. They just whooped up on their rivals, and now have to play lowly Penn St. I'm sure Michigan St. wins but getting more than +15 is great value.

Small lean to Nebraska +3.5

Same concept as above. Michigan comes off a loss to their rival Michigan St. Now has to get up and go on the road to an inferior opponent. Not sure how they will respond. Have this game capped at Michigan -1 so little bit of value. Also low total gives more value to the points, as possessions will not be at premium.

[marcowill]

Amare is OUT on Wednesday, just a FYI.

[VincentValour]

(02-08-2012 01:54 AM)marcowill Wrote:  Amare is OUT on Wednesday, just a FYI.

Yes already ruled out, I should have been more specific with the "scratches"

[The Peoples Champ]

Looks like my posts aren't pemberton mobile but Ill try one more time. Well elaborate more later but where do you get your pace numbers VV?

[Wally Goosefeathers]

I agree with you VV.. Overs are coming in hot as of late.

Look at the U/O rate week by week this year:

Week 1: 32/24 57% U
Week 2: 41/22 65% U
Week 3: 34/27 56% U
Week 4: 31/25 55% U
Week 5: 28/26 52% U
Week 6: 33/31 52% U
Week 7: 7/11 39% U

Overs are definitely starting to come in more.. Might be a good time to jump on some.


I love the knicks -1 tonite. With McGee out for Washington, they are pretty shady at the front court. With Jeffries starting in replace of Amare, he and Chandler should dominate the defensive side of things and win the board game. Lin, Shumpert and Fields should be able to score enough and shut down Wall. I actually like the under in this game. Pairing Washingtons poor shooting with the KNicks solid Def w/ LIn and Jeffries starting.

I also like the Pacers getting 3.5 in Atlanta. Atlanta hasnt done crap lately at home and is getting beat by lesser teams. With Horford out and now their backup Center Collins out, they are very shallow up front. If Pachulia gets in foul trouble, they could be climbing an uphill battle for the rest of the game. Indiana has a solid front court and is playing well and should easily cover the 3.5

[VincentValour]

(02-08-2012 10:03 AM)The Peoples Champ Wrote:  Looks like my posts aren't pemberton mobile but Ill try one more time. Well elaborate more later but where do you get your pace numbers VV?

hollinger does a nice job keeping them current.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamsta...paceFactor

[DOP]

what do you guys think about Orlando tonight?

Miami played last night, won big and we just watched Orlando lose at home to the Clips but the line is low so everyone will play Miami blindly here. Miami's perimeter defense isn't great so far this season. I feel like Orlando would be happy with a quick paced game "you take your layups Miami... we'll take our 3-pointers instead.."

[kreatture]

My only NHL play tonight is Calgary/SJ Under 5 (+121).

Kipper is going for #300 tonight and has been playing outstanding hockey. Sharks at home are tough and don't give up many goals. This game screams 2-1 SJ in a shootout, much like they did in January. They've played twice in past 3 weeks with SJ winning 2-1 (SO) at home, then 1-0 in Calgary.

Lean to Buffalo at home tonight over Boston, as well, as a nice +153 Home Dog.

[AJP]

58-33 +25.83 units at 1 unit a piece

Red Wings -1.5 +135

Pretty simple reasoning. NHL's best Home team vs the NHL's worst Road team for the 3rd consecutive year. Wings have won 17 straight games at Home, 13 of those by 2+. It's been more than 3 months since their last Home loss. Oilers have lost 14 out of their last 15 on the Road, 8 of those by 2+. And if it wasn't for a stupid and unnecessary boarding by Carcillo that gave the Oilers a 5 minute PP, in which they netted 2 goals, then they don't even get that 1 win they got in their last 15. Khabibulen in net tonight and he's been awful last 2 months and Oilers playing no defense right now. Wings should get to at least 4 goals tonight. Wings won by 3 in their only meeting in Detroit vs the Oilers this year.

[The Peoples Champ]

I've been all over the place so far today, and still haven't got to look at things, but I would say be weary of the Lions tonight. They are a total different team on the road than at home, and don't let the second half effort at Iowa fool you, this team is dreadful, and if you thought MSU dominated Michigan on the boards, wait till you see the mess that are the Lions bigs in Jon Graham, a player Chambers really liked in the beginning of the season who still has yet to show any progression, and the other guy, Sasha Baravniak, who just can't seem to figure out what to do on the offensive end. Nick Collela is a walk-on from State College that never gets passed to, so as soon as he gets it, he looks to jack up a three. Not saying I'd play MSU, but surely couldn't be confident enough in PSU, either.

[Skating Tripods]

(02-08-2012 11:58 AM)Mr Lucky Wrote:  Lean to Buffalo at home tonight over Boston, as well, as a nice +153 Home Dog.

Curious what, if any, impact having James Patrick behind the bench instead of Lindy Ruff does. Obviously, all of the coaches are on the same page. But, there's gotta be some kind of different dynamic with Patrick back there instead of Ruff.

Ryan Miller's first crack at Boston since the Lucic incident. Have to figure he's ready to play.


Like your CGY/SJ play too. Flames with a day to relax in SoCal, time to get back to business tonight.

[mchurch21]

Atlanta down to 3 and I like it. Though Atlanta has been dreadful the last few games they shouldn't lose 4 in a row at home. Atlanta had a day to rest at home and Indiana on a home2road back to back -- Atlanta-Indiana series the last few years won by the home team -- Indiana won at home a couple weeks ago, possible revenge factor -- So_Money on it :)

Leaning UCF (-4.5) at home against Marshall. UCF great at home (12-1) and needing to make up a little ground a couple games out of C-USA 1st. DeAndre (Dre) Kane is probably out for Marshall and scoring for them will become a lot tougher without him (his dad died- really tough on a college kid-all condolences). I'm sure the players will play hard without their star, but that's much easier to do at home than at the toughest home court in the conference. I have this one capped at 8.5-9 with a UCF run late in the game.

Really like Boston -170 at Buffalo. Thomas has been on a roll lately in the net and with Vanek probably out (or at least banged up) scoring will be tough for Buffalo (24th in scoring already). Miller seemingly refuses to play like his contract says he should (My bro-in-law from Buffalo curses every time he sees him). Boston is actually better in offensive efficiency and PP on the road. I'm ok laying the chalk to pick up a win here.

[caseyd]

Two A10 plays of interest for me this evening.
StL- 3 128.5 U
Two good defensive teams should keep this game slow and low scoring. The Billikens are away and ST Joe's should run into a problem from beyond the arc. (Keeping 3's to a minimum).

KenPom has Stl ranked # 13 overall.
The line moved from STL -1 to -3.5

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/hawk-...33569.html

[SkyBlues42]

Wish I jumped on that Saint Louis line earlier. I still played it at 3.5, but would feel much more comfortable needing just a win.

[The Peoples Champ]

Just getting in, and will preface by saying I am trying to incorporate the pace numbers for the first time this evening, so numbers may be a total clusterfuck, we shall see.

That teaser VV posted earlier is one I'm on as well, love it.

I like Indiana tonight as well, I had them capped as a small favorite in this game, and I like it now that it's up to 3.5, as well. Indiana's been awful in Atlanta as mentioned, but Horford and Collins are still out, and if the Pacers can keep Joe Johnson in check, who has KILLED them in prior meetings, I think they'll be just fine, and I think the same logic applies to Teague heating up.

I see the under in Philadelphia and San Antonio as a trendy play because of their pace numbers, but I actually like the over there. I don't think it's a secret that the Spurs are not the defense first team of old, and in a game that could very well see OT, I like the over even more.

Going with the under in NJ/DET, though there is a major RLM going on there, as 78% of the bets are on the under, yet the line has gone up three points. This may have to do with the officials, but I just don't see anyway this one goes over unless it turns into a foul fest.

To close things out, I actually expect Houston to keep their game with Portland close, though that is the game I'm least confident in with my new numbers, so will probably back off. Both teams can run, so the over is in play in my opinion. If Camby is out (haven't seen either way yet) I'll like Houston even more, who had a rebounding edge in the last meeting, and is a main concern of McMillian's.

Back in a few with NHL.

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Liked Boston till I saw Tukka Rask was between the pipes tonight for the Bruins, and it actually makes me lean Buffalo, though I'm not sure I'll play it with how consistently inconsistent they've been.

LOVE the under in SJ/CAL tonight. I know SJ will have to forecheck a good bit, but I just can't pass up plus value in that one with Kippersof and Niemi in net.