2-7-12 NBA/NHL/NCAAB

[The Peoples Champ]

Moving on from last night, here's what I see for tomorrow (tonight) in the association:
Looks like the Miami/Cleveland total is on it's way down, and I have it at 193.5, so depending on where it goes overnight, may end up laying off of it. That being said, mightly interesting that the more days Cleveland has rest, the more points it gives up defensively.

I think the Charlotte/Boston total is pretty fair where it sits at 179, but Boston being 14 point favorites, even at home, against awful Charlotte, seems a tad high, though I'm sure I'll be in the minority there.

Total isn't out yet for Sacramento/Minnesota, but I have it at 187, and I like Minnesota as a 6.5 point favorite, as I have it at Minny -8.

My biggest discrepancy with a total comes in the Phoenix/Milwaukee match-up, as the total sits at 194, though I have it capped at 185. The biggest discrepancy hit last night, and has done okay thus far, but certainly not a bigger sample size to draw any conclusions. I think the biggest thing with the largest difference is being able to back it up, and Denver's lengthy injury list certainly backed up the lean towards the under tonight (last night), and it went more than comfortably under.

Well, scratch that, the biggest difference comes in the current total of GS/OKC, where the total is set at 205.5, while I have it sitting at 195.5. OKC scores their average on the B2B, but curiously enough, in again, a very small sample size, GS scores four less than their average with two days rest. Will monitor that one in the AM, and as always with the late game, check the box score/recap to see if OKC had to exert more than normal energy/rested their starters in the 4Q etc.

NHL:
As I mentioned before in a prior thread, never have a good feel on NHL till the AM/mid-afternoon when I see the goaltenders, so I'll take a look at that healthy card when I check the NBA numbers in the AM.

NCAAB:
JimmySingh has been starting some kick-ass NCAAB threads, and if he wants to start incorporating them here, by all means, that'd be great, but if not, check that thread out!

[VincentValour]

(02-06-2012 11:59 PM)The Peoples Champ Wrote:  Moving on from last night, here's what I see for tomorrow (tonight) in the association:
Looks like the Miami/Cleveland total is on it's way down, and I have it at 193.5, so depending on where it goes overnight, may end up laying off of it. That being said, mightly interesting that the more days Cleveland has rest, the more points it gives up defensively.

I think the Charlotte/Boston total is pretty fair where it sits at 179, but Boston being 14 point favorites, even at home, against awful Charlotte, seems a tad high, though I'm sure I'll be in the minority there.

Total isn't out yet for Sacramento/Minnesota, but I have it at 187, and I like Minnesota as a 6.5 point favorite, as I have it at Minny -8.

My biggest discrepancy with a total comes in the Phoenix/Milwaukee match-up, as the total sits at 194, though I have it capped at 185. The biggest discrepancy hit last night, and has done okay thus far, but certainly not a bigger sample size to draw any conclusions. I think the biggest thing with the largest difference is being able to back it up, and Denver's lengthy injury list certainly backed up the lean towards the under tonight (last night), and it went more than comfortably under.

Well, scratch that, the biggest difference comes in the current total of GS/OKC, where the total is set at 205.5, while I have it sitting at 195.5. OKC scores their average on the B2B, but curiously enough, in again, a very small sample size, GS scores four less than their average with two days rest. Will monitor that one in the AM, and as always with the late game, check the box score/recap to see if OKC had to exert more than normal energy/rested their starters in the 4Q etc.

NHL:
As I mentioned before in a prior thread, never have a good feel on NHL till the AM/mid-afternoon when I see the goaltenders, so I'll take a look at that healthy card when I check the NBA numbers in the AM.

NCAAB:
JimmySingh has been starting some kick-ass NCAAB threads, and if he wants to start incorporating them here, by all means, that'd be great, but if not, check that thread out!

I'm right there with ya on many of the games.

Have Twolves capped at -9.5. Also like that Sacramento comes off a road win far away from Minn. Still don't love the Twolves as heavy chalk, maybe this is a game to tease, throw in Milwaukee to get under 2 points with both.

Also have Bucks/Phoenix capped at 188.5. Both struggle on the offensive side of the ball.

Also have the total capped at 194.5 for the OKC, GS game. This one worries me a bit however, as the Warriors really pushed the pace against Utah a couple days ago when Utah was on a B2B. They might try to do that again to wear out OKC on a B2B.

[Jaeger62]

Well I'd say OKC certainly had to expend max effort. That # is up to 206 with -101 juice on the under vs -109 on the over so I'm assuming there is still push up. Might try and squeeze another point and jump on the under.

[The Peoples Champ]

Going to hit these again at 10 EST and check the line movements so I like that the okc line is going up.

[mattrud]

You guys are this high on the T-Wolves WITHOUT Kevin Love?

[KepowOb]

With Roloson starting in nets tonight, I'm on LA tonight. In 19 games this season, he has a save % of .882 and his GGA is 3.65... even the Kings should be able to score a few tonight, and as usual I don't expect them to give up very many. The juice has already started to shift on the ML of this one towards LA too, it was +104 earlier this morning, I got it at -101 about 5 minutes ago, and now it's already at -107 (all at Pinnacle)

I also like the Minnesota/Columbus Under. Minnesota is 7-16-6 on the road, and is scoring less than 2 goals a game on the road this season, with Columbus 8-15-1 at home for the O/U.

[The Peoples Champ]

Looks like the lines didn't move a whole lot over night, but as for the Phoenix/Milwaukee game, I'm wondering if Michael Redd's surging play will be center stage again tonight in his first return to Milwaukee since his unceremonious departure, and if Morris plays better than he did last night, I can certainly see the Suns covering this one. Keep in mind though that the Suns are on their fifth in six nights. As for that OKC/GS game, Golden State again sat their starters for a majority of the second half, so that high pace effort is certainly possible tonight, so I'll back off that game, for sure.



NHL

The Under 5 seems to be like a great play as long as Quick gets the start. Check out this quote from TB's Boucher:
"I know they would like to score more goals, but the reality is, they don't give up a lot (2.08 per game)," Boucher said. "So if you're planning to beat them, you're going to beat them 2-1."

As long as Quick gets the start, which I see no reason for him not to, absolutely love the over here, and expect Richards to have a good game tonight, as he killed Tampa during his stint with Philly. I'm guessing the juice moved a bit because So_Money made that his Twitter play today, but I can certainly see the Kings getting this W on the road.

I guess I could see the under being in play in that CBJ/Minnesota game, but neither goaltender intrigues me enough to put a lot of confidence in that.

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Hitting the Sac/Min total now that it's out at 197, as I have it ten points lower. Eli Roe has been an over machine, but I've had good results betting the under in game which Joe Crawford refs, so I'll give it a shot here.

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Oh, this is great news, as Danny Briere is IN tonight vs. NYI. Liked the Flyers in regulation before, and really like them now.

[The Peoples Champ]

Going back to that Flyers bit, I think Philadelphia is bound to get things back in order at some point, and why not against the lowly Isles? Bryz in net tonight concerns me, but Bob hasn't been great, either. Would like to hear Illy's thoughts.

[JayPrimetown]

Flyers intrigue me as well... things seem to be lining up for them tonight.

[illadelphia]

(02-07-2012 12:06 PM)The Peoples Champ Wrote:  Going back to that Flyers bit, I think Philadelphia is bound to get things back in order at some point, and why not against the lowly Isles? Bryz in net tonight concerns me, but Bob hasn't been great, either. Would like to hear Illy's thoughts.

The Flyers continue to be somewhat of a mystery. One thing that is clear is their dominance of the Isles, esp at home. I am well aware that the Isles won 4-1 a few weeks ago in Philly but that was their 1st win in 13 games at the Wells Fargo Center, so for that and a few other reasons I don't put much stock in it.

A major difference between that game and tonight is that Bobrovsky was in net for that game and Bryz is playing tonight. Not that Brzy is superior to Bob by any means but it separates the last game from tonight. The Flyers were also without Andreas Lilja on D.

In that last game, it seemed that the Isles were the aggressor in that game and really took it to the Flyers. The turning point of the game was a bizarre 2nd period - the Isles first goal came 30 sec in and they scored a shorthanded goal later in the 2nd. Hell, Grioux even got into a fight in the 2nd which is very rare. The Flyers out shout the Isles 41 to 27 and were 1-11 on the Power Play. It is possible that Nabokov can make 40 saves again tonight but the Flyers' PP unit has been playing much better as of late and the 1-11 seems unlikely.

It's no secret in Philly that the Flyers have been playing like crap at home (12-8-4). Numerous articles about teams not being afraid to play in Philly have surfaced in the past week or so. Now even the players are commenting on it, “Hopefully I can provide a little spark,” Briere said after taking part in Tuesday’s morning skate. “It’s been a little tough since the break, especially at home. I don’t like our record at home; it’s something we want to improve. Hopefully, I can come in and help in that department.”

Danny Briere's return should provide a spark in the Flyers lineup and some much needed depth. Briere has 12 goals and 12 assists in his last 21 games against the Isles. Also, Milan Jurcina, one of the Isles' top-hitting defensemen, will miss the game.

The Flyers are coming off 2 bad losses to NJ and the Rangers and this spot should give them a great opportunity to turn it around. The Isles already had their "we're sick of hearing about never winning in Philly" game last time around and I don't see a repeat performance tonight.

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POSSIBLE OVER ANGLE (note: this is just a quote and I haven't looked at anything else to prove or disprove this.)
"You look at Tampa Bay, you look at Montreal, you look at Washington even now," Danny Briere said after he practiced in full yesterday. "The Rangers and Devils are also playing that way. Those are teams that really sit back and wait for the opposition to come at them. We're a team that's aggressive. We're going after it. We don't sit back. It's part of the reason why we give up more goals against, but we also score more. It all depends upon the system you're playing."

[Jaeger62]

I'm a bit confused. If Quick makes the start are we leaning over 5?? Wouldn't the under be the play there?

[Skating Tripods]

(02-07-2012 04:30 PM)Jaeger62 Wrote:  I'm a bit confused. If Quick makes the start are we leaning over 5?? Wouldn't the under be the play there?

Quick plays for the LA Kings. They're talking about two different games.

One's Philly/New York Islanders. The other is Tampa Bay/LA.

[The Peoples Champ]

(02-07-2012 04:30 PM)Jaeger62 Wrote:  I'm a bit confused. If Quick makes the start are we leaning over 5?? Wouldn't the under be the play there?

I'm sorry, in the original post I typed over in the LAK game, meant under.

[The Peoples Champ]

Couldn't have been more off in that Phx/Mil total, holy hell. Didn't see every Pheonix starter scoring above their average, either, but that's the way it goes.

Absolutely did not see a 1-0 loss to NYI coming tonight from Philadelphia.

That being said, going to power down because I am incredibly tempted to back Golden State in the late game without good reason, just like the spot and ROI, but no reason to ruin a plus night with a late weak confidence play.

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Looking back on the Flyers game, outshot NYI 45-18, and just realized it was a SO loss. I feel they have been progressively coming around, and Toronto's visit on Thursday, as Kreatture pointed out on Twitter, may be a great puckline spot.