2-1-12 NHL/NBA/NCAAB

[The Peoples Champ]

Might as well just consolidate all these since they all have been getting a good bit of discussion lately, which is awesome. I'll post my initial thoughts briefly and hope the discussion gets going:

Milwaukee +6.5 vs. Miami: I want to see where this line goes, but for some reason, the Bucks intrigue me tonight, and maybe it's just because Miami has been brutal ATS, or maybe it's just because I'm exhausted, but I will say this will be a different contest now that Wade will be playing as opposed to their first meeting, but with Milwaukee knocking off the Lakers a few nights ago, there may be some value here if this one shoots up.

Oklahoma City at Dallas -2: This line has moved up a half tick since the open, and if it keeps moving up it probably isn't worth the play, but anything below the key 3 is worth a bite in my opinion, and again, just a numbers crunch and not an in-depth look, but Beaubois will have to slow down Westbrook and Nowitzki continue the success he's had against OKC thus far in their first two meetings, and I'll have to decide those answers tomorrow.

Charlotte at Portland -15: Don't like laying that many points with anyone, but my quick numbers crunch shows this one could be a total blow out, as I have Portland winning by 20. Will dig some more tomorrow, and that number may just be too daunting, but worth noting.

Lot of games off the board, too, but a healthy NBA card tomorrow.

NHL:
Washington at Florida: Pretty shitty situation for the Caps to have to travel south after the break, and I think that showed in last night's 4-3 OT loss to Tampa Bay in which they had to come back from a 3-1 deficit. I think they might look sluggish again tonight, and with Ovechkin and Backstrom out, I'm liking the under here.

I also like the Kings in regulation tomorrow and will wait to see what the line is. Quick was standing on his head before the break, and Columbus has just been dreadful, especially on the road. Can't imagine any team is thrilled to have to trek from the west coast right after the break, even with the extra day.

As for NCAAB, have at it guys, catch ya in the morning.

[bracks]

Any reason why you aren't on the NY Rags tonight?

[The Peoples Champ]

Like I said, tired and pinched on time, so didn't really look at it, but will give it a peak in a bit.

[Wally Goosefeathers]

Few things jump out at me today that I need to look into...

NJ/Detroit Under 184... not sure either of these teams will reach 92 points

MIami/Milwaukee Over 194... Milwaukee seems to score 100 every night at home. Miami's defense is solid, but both teams are fairly fast paced. I gotta look into it.

Orlando/Washington Under 184.5... do I even want to take a shot at this? Orlando screwing people lately.

Portland -14.5 - Underdogs are 2-9 this year covering ATS while getting 13 or more points. (New Orleans beat Denver Outright, and Bulls beat Raptors by 13 (raptors were getting 14). Portland has been solid at home and charlotte has been awful everywhere. I still like portland giving the points.

[DOP]

(02-01-2012 10:08 AM)Wally Goosefeathers Wrote:  Orlando/Washington Under 184.5... do I even want to take a shot at this? Orlando screwing people lately.

I want to play this over very badly. The total has to be low based on the last few games and Orlando debacle but there is usually a common theme when Orlando struggles - opponent's perimeter defense.

Boston & Philly are #1 and #2 in OPP 3PT%. NOH is top10. Washington is near the bottom.

I think Magic hit 100 tonight.

[The Peoples Champ]

(02-01-2012 08:54 AM)bracks Wrote:  Any reason why you aren't on the NY Rags tonight?

Waiting to see if Vanek is playing for Buffalo. If not, I'm certainly in love with the NYR play.

Other things I'm looking at:

Waiting for the Kings reg line to come out, but after Columbus got absolutely pounded at SJ last night, can't see a better effort tonight. I think the over might be in play here if Mason gets the start for CJB, but I'll have to wait and see on that.

NHL seems plenty tight tonight with a short card, but Dallas on the ML intrigues me, as Anaheim comes off a back to back meaning Deslauriers may get the start, and if he does, I like Anaheim even more. If it's Hiller, I don't like it so much, but I have some more reasons for this lean that I will delve into once I get back from a meeting around 4:30 est.

Like the Clips tonight on the road at Utah with Jefferson and Bell out again for the Jazz. LA hasn't been great on the road, nor at Utah in years past, but I think the offensive advantage the above injuries give them allows them to win comfortably tonight.

Got to run again, but will check out the lines again later.

[Wally Goosefeathers]

Chicago Bulls/Philly 76ers O/U at 178.5

Philly is averaging 96 pts at home and chicago 98 on the road. Yes these teams both have solid defenses, but each team has a solid bench which could provide some high scoring in the 2nd and early 4th quarter.

All comes down to if these guys can hit the outside shot or not. Sixers and Chicago are 2nd and 3rd in the league shooting from the outside. If they can hit, i expect a solid 100-95 game.

[medale]

(02-01-2012 02:07 PM)The Peoples Champ Wrote:  

(02-01-2012 08:54 AM)bracks Wrote:  Any reason why you aren't on the NY Rags tonight?

Waiting to see if Vanek is playing for Buffalo. If not, I'm certainly in love with the NYR play.

I'm from BUF, Vanek is OUT.

[Skating Tripods]

Played the Devils yesterday but got burned by getting greedy and playing it with PHI -1.5. Total rookie mistake playing a puckline with a plus money ML. Had a hunch that the Flyers would want to make a statement out of the break. Bryzgalov with a chance to catch his breath and probably meet with Laviolette.

Dominated in the dot, scored a PPG, and outplayed WPG the entire third period. Just couldn't beat Pavelec, who historically has been terrible against them.

Not sure I'm that enamored with the Rangers tonight, with or without Vanek for BUF. BUF's putting it together a little bit after getting healthier. Gaustad makes them a much better faceoff team and a more balanced club. Ryan Miller's going for the franchise record in goaltender wins in front of a home crowd that may start believing again.

Really like the value on Buffalo.

PIT/TOR could go over 5.5 again tonight. Reimer in for TOR and he's played just one game since December 31. Brent Johnson for the Pens. Have to imagine Toronto comes out hard to try and erase the memory of last night's tough loss.

Like the Caps tonight too. Got to get back in the flow of things while Florida's been off for a week. Again, another good value number. Clemmensen still in for the Cats. No Versteeg (flu) for the Panthers. Could mean other guys don't feel very good either.

[JayPrimetown]

(02-01-2012 11:21 AM)DOP Wrote:  

(02-01-2012 10:08 AM)Wally Goosefeathers Wrote:  Orlando/Washington Under 184.5... do I even want to take a shot at this? Orlando screwing people lately.

I want to play this over very badly. The total has to be low based on the last few games and Orlando debacle but there is usually a common theme when Orlando struggles - opponent's perimeter defense.

Boston & Philly are #1 and #2 in OPP 3PT%. NOH is top10. Washington is near the bottom.

I think Magic hit 100 tonight.

Washington has allowed at least 98 points to every team but Charlotte in their last 15 games. Washington has shown an ability to get to 90 most nights as well. I really like the over here too... Orlando starts hitting their 3's... this could hit 200.

Added a little to the NJ / Detroit Over. Detroit is another team that allows a lot of points. NJ has done well scoring wise coming off a game the night before.

[Skating Tripods]

Sabres played admirably. Other two reads couldn't have been farther off. Really not feeling it lately. Time to take a long break. Probably until March Madness.