14 Hours of Hoops!

[jimmysingh9]

Seeing Robbie Hummel, I feel bad for that guy. They had a final four team with this guy in the lineup for the last 2 years healthy and he didnt get to finish that last year. Team's not as good, but hopefully he's got two good legs to play this year.

[omgkyleflavin]

NO ONE, not even Rhode Island, defends the ball as poorly as Iona. I've never seen this many blow bys and wide open layups at the rim.

Awful charge call just now.

[Western27]

What do you guys think of the o/u at 58.5 for the NW LSU game.. Im thinking OVER

[Beyond the Bets]

Really thought Purdue would be able to wear Iona down in the second half. But it's near impossible to pull away when both teams are shooting on these peach tree basket rims.

Never seen so many "off" shots go "in."

[Stangrider]

Is NW good enought to cover against LSU??

[laxbrah420]

You guys have been talking about the possibility of "easy" or "soft" lines at the beginning of the season, but Im finding that the line has had a rare propensity to be +/- 2 vs actual outcomes --at least in the games I've been following. Even for the best cappers, these have been mere -110 coinflips. At this point in the season, I like teasers despite the general disdain for them in anything besides football. That, and high chalk two team parlays on MLs or bought pts. It seems like you guys have been mostly profitable thus far --but until we learn more about the way these teams pace, and who likes to run up the score at the end (i.e. washington), I think it's difficult to be too confident in anything.

Has anyone kept good enough tabs yet to be able to produce a histogram of the difference between outcomes and lines? I've read on this site, "the line doesn't matter" because x% of the time it doesn't matter --but I'd like to view this #1 -YTD and #2 visually. Also that statement was in reference to NFL --I'm thinking college basketball might be entirely different beast

Edit: I'm sure you all will be quick to mention the major upsets thus far and the couple of blowouts, but I think for every one or two of those, you'll see a lot more "lines that matter"

Edit 2: A cool way to test might be to measure IF the line at any point from open to close touched the actual difference.

[Stangrider]

Purdue is not who we thought they were.......

[jimmysingh9]

I think Purdue would have covered if they hit some timely FT's. There were two misses in a row when they were up 4 I believe with a couple minutes left that I thought would have been close to icing it and maybe getting a cover.

BTB, those shots dont come close to going in at MSG :) :)

[Skating Tripods]

Man am I glad I bought back LSU and ate the juice. This is ugly for Northwestern.

[ChiefZilla]

This Hickey guy for LSU is incredibly fast. All these white boys on Northwestern have no idea what to do with him.

[laxbrah420]

Man everything I wrote looks wrong now that I'm going through the numbers. I'll try to have a more comprehensive report by the end of the day.

And LSU's about to blow up my parlay strategy too haha

Purdue -210* vs Iona: WIN
Northwestern -425* vs LSU pending (so -122)

Should I buy the +7 2h to get out of most of this bet?

[RyanParrill]

Maryland (1-0) @ Alabama (2-0) (-8, O/U 128)

Maryland
Mark Turgeon got off to a successful start as Maryland's new coach Sunday night, guiding the Terrapins past UNC Wilmington 71-62 in his first game since taking over for Gary Williams. Terrell Stoglin scored 22 for Maryland, which won its 10th straight opener overall and 35th in a row at home. The Terrapins opened the second half with a 13-4 run to go up 45-31 and never let the margin shrink below six points. It was Maryland's first game since 1989 without Williams on the sideline. Although Maryland is thin on height and experience, it still beat a UNCW team with only one SR starter.

Alabama
JaMychal Green, Tony Mitchell and Alabama's defense are still in fine form. The offense has a ways to go. Green scored 18 points, and Mitchell had 17 points and 10 rebounds to lead Alabama to a 64-44 victory over North Florida on Friday night in their season opener.
JaMychal Green scored 18 points to lead Alabama while Trevor Releford added 14 points for the Crimson Tide in a 57-74 win over Oakland. Tony Mitchell had 12 and Trevor Lacey 10. Mitchell had 9 rebounds and 4 assists. They took a strong second half to pull away. The Tide shook off a lengthy early scoring drought to push ahead by 28 points in the closing minutes. The Tide shot 41 percent from the floor but made 15/17 free throws and 5/16 3-pointers. North Florida struggled in both those areas, hitting just three 3s in 21 attempts and 15/26 from the line.

Alabama clearly looks like the better team. The question is, can they do it for 2 halves, more importantly get some run for an over?

[Beyond the Bets]

(11-17-2011 02:46 PM)laxbrah420 Wrote:  Has anyone kept good enough tabs yet to be able to produce a histogram of the difference between outcomes and lines?

Nope, but if you want to create a histogram, that would be awesome. I love histograms.

[tilted4life]

Looking at playing Maryland +7.5 any thoughts from the masses? Playing against Alabama scoresandodds.com has them as a pickem where do you all think the right play is?

[deeZaL_V]

ROLL TIDE -8

They win this game easy

[tilted4life]

Any reason you think this? Or are you just on the Alabama side because of loyalties?

[mount187]

(11-17-2011 04:08 PM)tilted4life Wrote:  Looking at playing Maryland +7.5 any thoughts from the masses? Playing against Alabama scoresandodds.com has them as a pickem where do you all think the right play is?

I'm an ACC guy, and I'm big on fading the ACC this year. I think Dook and UNC are what they are, but the rest of the conference is really shaky. Most programs have lost one-and-dones or two-year players and have not reloaded. Before you bet any of the ACC teams, you need to look at their last few recruiting classes to see if they actually have talent.

Wake played two games against really bad teams, and have won by 12 and 9. A "good" team in the ACC should be winning those games by 20+.

Maryland beat UNC-Wilmington by 9 at home ...

Even teams like UNC and Dook have struggled ATS. UNC barely covered against MSU, and it took some foul trouble to get it done. UNC missed covering against UNC-Asheville, and Dook's only cover was in a home blowout of Presbyterian.

As sure as I write this though, someone will come back with "ACC is like 20-5 ATS this season" and I'll look like a complete jackass.

[Edit] I'm not endorsing 'Bama here. Just my thoughts on Maryland and the ACC in general.

[laxbrah420]

(11-17-2011 04:07 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(11-17-2011 02:46 PM)laxbrah420 Wrote:  Has anyone kept good enough tabs yet to be able to produce a histogram of the difference between outcomes and lines?

Nope, but if you want to create a histogram, that would be awesome. I love histograms.

I'll start working on it. Might take a while unless I can figure out a way to quickly grab the data.

[RyanParrill]

VCU (1-0, -3) @ Seton Hall (1-0, O/U 135.5) (Neutral Location)

VCU
Troy Daniels and Juvonte Reddic combined for 41 points and 16 rebounds to lead Virginia Commonwealth to a season-opening 63-57 victory against St. Francis (Pa.) on Friday night. Daniels and Reddic posted career-highs in points and rebounds. Daniels knocked down five 3-pointers en route to a team-high 22 points, while grabbing six boards and two steals. Reddic recorded his first career double-double with 19 points and 10 rebounds. VCU led 36-37 at halftime but St. Francis fought back to within three, 58-55, with 46 seconds. VCU shot 33% from the field, 23% from 3-pt, but were 70% from the FT line.

Seton Hall
Jordan Theodore scored a career-high 25 points, including a clutch shot with 1.1 seconds left in regulation to send the game into OT, and Seton Hall defeated St. Francis (N.Y.) 75-71 in the season opener last Saturday night. Herb Pope scored 21 points and grabbed 14 rebounds for Seton Hall, which earned its 11th season-opening victory in the last 13 years. The Pirates trailed for most of the game, but scored the last 6 points of the contest to send it to OT, then took control in the extra session. Seton Hall suffered through a dismal first half, shooting just 27% from the floor (eight-for-29) and failing to make any of their 3-point attempts (0-for-7). They ended up making one 3 pointer out of 13 but shot 41% by the end of the contest while going 60% (22/37) from the FT line.

VCU run away with this one? I know it has risen to 3 but may continue to climb...

EDIT: Glad I didn't bet it.

[tilted4life]

Scout.com has Maryland at six for 2012 but not in the top thirty the last two recruiting classes. Interesting little nugget.