Beyond the Bets Sports Betting Forum - All Forums

NBA Playoff Prediction

Tue, 21 May 2013 17:44:37 +0000

PREDICTION: Spurs 94, Grizzlies 90

Get the details of this prediction at:

BetBomb Prediction

Who are the best follows on Twitter for baseball?

Tue, 21 May 2013 12:43:28 +0000

Looking for advice on who to follow. Who out there on Twitter is providing good baseball betting info on a somewhat consistent basis?

(Don't be shy about recommending yourself, too. )

New Tournament

Mon, 20 May 2013 17:14:35 +0000

Check out the new DraftStreet.com Tournament on BetBomb.com:
https://betbomb.com/contests

Week 1 college football lines

Mon, 20 May 2013 15:58:02 +0000

These were the BetOnline openers, or close to it.

Any thoughts? Like, thoughts other than "Is Purdue really THAT bad?" A 14-point dog to Cincy? Yikes.

* * *

Tulsa -7
Bowling Green

Utah State
Utah -4.5

Rutgers
Fresno State -8.5

Akron
Central Florida -28

North Carolina
South Carolina -8.5

UNLV
Minnesota -17

Ole Miss
Vanderbilt -4.5

USC -24
Hawaii

FAU
Miami -31

Western Michigan
Michigan State -24

Texas Tech
SMU -1.5

Washington State
Auburn -14

Louisiana Lafayette
Arkansas -14

Northwestern -6
California

Nevada
UCLA -13

Toledo
Florida -21.5

Kentucky -3
Western Kentucky

FIU
Maryland -13

Central Michigan
Michigan -26

Louisiana Tech
NC State -10.5

UTSA
New Mexico -6

Penn State -4
Syracuse

Buffalo
Ohio State -33

Mississippi State
Oklahoma State -6.5

Louisiana Monroe
Oklahoma -23

Rice
Texas A&M -28

Idaho
North Texas -17

New Mexico State
Texas -42

BYU -4
Virginia

Boise State
Washington -3

UMass
Wisconsin -45

Miami Ohio
Marshall -10.5

Purdue
Cincinnati -14

Northern Illinois
Iowa -6.5

Texas State
Southern Miss -11

UAB
Troy -6

Temple
Notre Dame -28

Alabama -14
Virginia Tech

Wyoming
Nebraska -21.5

Georgia
Clemson -1

LSU -4.5
TCU

Ohio
Louisville -16

Colorado -4.5
Colorado State

Florida State -6.5
Pittsburgh

Umpires (MLB)

Mon, 20 May 2013 14:08:49 +0000

Has anybody been tracking umps this year (or even betting baseball consistently)? I saw a stat the other day that had Josh Hirschbeck as a good OVER ump so far this year. Curious if there's a location where they are all displayed on one page, rather than having to click each one individually to find their records.

Preakness

Fri, 17 May 2013 18:52:16 +0000

Figured I'd post my pick before heading off for weekend. I think Orb wins tomorrow (I know such a huge prediction), but I don't feel like laying -130 since there's not much value. I went with

993 Orb wins Preakness & not Triple Crown* +190

Nothing too crazy and I probably could do something different and make more money, but it was my 5 minutes of analysis pick lol.

Good luck to anyone who bets the race. Hoping Orb does win just so we get a shot at a triple crown candidate for Belmont.

Win TaylorMade R11 Iron Set

Fri, 17 May 2013 18:35:03 +0000

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Grizzlies at plus money?

Fri, 17 May 2013 17:26:38 +0000

I was hoping for better odds but I think I'll still take 'em at +110. They were vastly underrated as a 5-seed and have the best defense of any team remaining and seem to translate their game into any environment.

any thoughts?

NCAAB Futures

Thu, 16 May 2013 21:23:10 +0000

Heading out to Vegas for the first time next weekend. I am a Kentucky fan and would like to lay a big ole square bet on Kentucky to win it all next year. Most sites list them at 5/1, is there a sports-book that has better odds, or for futures like these, would they all be the same for the favorite?
Thanks

Laugh your ass off

Wed, 15 May 2013 18:22:05 +0000

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Tue, 14 May 2013 20:31:59 +0000

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NHL game 7s

Mon, 13 May 2013 22:00:13 +0000

I had a whole in depth writeup done early that got eaten by the Internet so let's try it again. If the Bruins and Caps win i will have nailed all 8 winners in the first round for the first time since I've been wagering on the NHL. Go me!

Toronto at Boston

Boston- 175
Toronto +155
O/U 5 Over is -125, under +105

I'm really surprised this is going 7 after what happened in game 4, but here we are thanks to James Reimer. Reimer has flat out stolen games 5 and 6 from Boston and played the two best games in goal this playoffs by anyone not named Henrik Lundqvist. Toronto is still getting outplayed at massive stretches and with the back to back I think Boston's rolling lines philosophy will wear them out at some point. If Reimer plays like this though all bets are off. The Bruins are averaging 40 shots a game, well ahead of any other team in the playoffs. If they play like they have the whole series they should win tonight. But in a 50/50 spot having the best goalie is the great equalizer which right now is Reimer.

Prediction

Boston 3
Toronto 1

New York at Washington

Washington -135
New York +115
O/U 5, Over is +120, Under -140

It's nasty, it's ugly and game 6 was downright brutal. Game 7 could be an epic in this 5 year battle between the Caps and Rangers. The Caps are bitching and moaning about the penalties which is somewhat justified, but not really. The penalties the Caps have taken have been mostly justified (What the F is Mike Green doing cross checking guys in the mouth? Very lucky he is playing tonight, slew foot or now.) The Rangers taking much fewer penalties is not unexpected as they were the fewest penalized team this season. Should the difference be 12 PPs? No. But it's not that far off. The Rangers have really gotten under the Caps skin, but if they play tonight at 5 on 5 for a majority of the game the Caps will win. They have DOMINATED playing 5 on 5. So if the penalties are just even tonight the Caps will win. If they are again in the Rangers favor it will be nip and tuck based on if the Rangers can score. The last 13 playoff games in Verizon the Rangers have score 13 goals. Not seeing how that changes tonight. if the Caps get 2 that should be enough. Rick Nash is the X factor. Is he hurt? We don't know, but if he plays like he did during the regular year that's the only way I see the Rangers winning. But the Caps won't let him.

Prediction

Capitals 2
Rangers 1

2nd round NHL series bets

Mon, 13 May 2013 19:35:48 +0000

5D:

Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins - Conference Semifinals - Series Price
Tue 5/14 841 Ottawa Senators (Series) +210
7:35PM 842 Pittsburgh Penguins (Series) -250

San Jose Sharks vs Los Angeles Kings - Conference Semifinals - Series Price
Tue 5/14 843 San Jose Sharks (Series) +125
10:05PM 844 Los Angeles Kings (Series) -145

Detroit Red Wings vs Chicago Blackhawks - Conference Semifinals - Series Price
Wed 5/15 845 Detroit Red Wings (Series) +265
8:05PM 846 Chicago Blackhawks (Series) -325

Will play the Sens at +210.

NBA Futures (any value?)

Mon, 13 May 2013 14:06:52 +0000

I know they are hurt without Westbrook, but can anyone justify a play on them given their current odds? At 30-to-1 it's at the very least, intriguing. Same with the 11-to-1 odds to win the Western Conference. I know it's unlikely, but I do think Durant has the ability to carry them through these series if one other player will actually step up and contribute.

NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
Miami Heat -240
San Antonio Spurs +625
Memphis Grizzlies +750
Indiana Pacers +2000
Oklahoma City Thunder +3000
Golden State Warriors +3700
New York Knicks +3800
Chicago Bulls +17500

WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio Spurs -120
Memphis Grizzlies +180
Golden State Warriors +950
Oklahoma City Thunder +1100

Cantor's NFL divisional odds are out

Mon, 13 May 2013 04:42:31 +0000

Who I would take with a gun to head, without laying big chalk...

Respect the streak!

Fri, 10 May 2013 23:57:47 +0000

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Bulls or Heat???

Fri, 10 May 2013 13:28:12 +0000

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Skating Tripods, please tell me this can be explained by the weather...

Fri, 10 May 2013 12:48:40 +0000

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-le...10202.html

Because I know that's at least part of the reason that the Royals have the second-worst attendance even though we're 18-13. Weather's been awful pretty much every night.

NFL win totals

Fri, 10 May 2013 06:15:24 +0000

As per the front page post.

ARIZONA CARDINALS
Over 6 (-110)
Under 6 (-120)

ATLANTA FALCONS
Over 10 (-135)
Under 10 (+105)

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Over 9.5 (-120)
Under 9.5 (-110)

BUFFALO BILLS
Over 5 (-135)
Under 5 (+105)

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (even)

CHICAGO BEARS
Over 8.5 (-135)
Under 8.5 (+105)

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Over 9 (-115)
Under 9 (-115)

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Over 5 (+120)
Under 5 (-150)

DALLAS COWBOYS
Over 8.5 (-150)
Under 8.5 (+120)

DENVER BRONCOS
Over 12 (-130)
Under 12 (even)

DETROIT LIONS
Over 7 (-115)
Under 7 (-115)

GREEN BAY PACKERS
Over 12 (-115)
Under 12 (-115)

HOUSTON TEXANS
Over 11 (-140)
Under 11 (+110)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Over 8 (-150)
Under 8 (+120)

JACKSONVILLE JAGAURS
Over 4.5 (-140)
Under 4.5 (+110)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Over 6.5 (-130)
Under 6.5 (even)

MIAMI DOLPHINS
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Over 11.5 (-140)
Under 11.5 (+110)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Over 9.5 (-115)
Under 9.5 (-115)

NEW YORK GIANTS
Over 9 (-120)
Under 9 (-110)

NEW YORK JETS
Over 7 (-120)
Under 7 (-110)

OAKLAND RAIDERS
Over 5.5 (-115)
Under 5.5 (-115)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Over 6.5 (-150)
Under 6.5 (+120)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Over 10 (-130)
Under 10 (even)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Over 7 (even)
Under 7 (-130)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Over 11.5 (-120)
Under 11.5 (-110)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Over 11 (-140)
Under 11 (+110)

ST. LOUIS RAMS
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-115)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Over 6.5 (-115)
Under 6.5 (-115)

TENNESSEE TITANS
Over 6.5 (+110)
Under 6.5 (-140)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-120)

I'm actually impressed with most of the numbers. They seemed to account for regression/progression pretty well. A couple that stuck out to me were.

Jets O/U 7 - Really -110 on the under? This team is pretty talentless. Strongly lean under.

Cowboys O/U 8.5 -150 on the over. Not as bad but that seems like a high price to pay on "America's team"
lean under

Chiefs O/U 6.5 -130 to the over. Again not too bad. But seems short with the Raiders and Chargers looking like a mess, and the Chiefs playing the weak AFC South.
lean over

Also some inside info on smaller Nevada books. Some of the independent books in Reno and other spots in Nevada will have off market win total #'s. This is mainly due to books move more based on action with props, futures, etc, and not so much on steam. Also with many of the books being in the middle of nowhere, they don't induce as much action on these bets. So if anyone is driving through the area don't forget to check the numbers at some of these independent books.

I'll post my personal win totals in the next couple days.

Anybody liking anything based on the openers?

Attempting to Learn How to Handicap MLB - Power Ratings

Fri, 10 May 2013 02:28:21 +0000

I have recently decided to attempt to learn how to handicap MLB, rather than tailing plays from others or making wagers with little to absolutely none of my own analysis. I hope to create several threads to organize my thoughts, document my progress and methods, and possibly receive feedback or generate discussion.

Many handicappers suggest creating power ratings for the individual teams as a starting point for the handicapping process. Although this is often suggested, I have found little advice or help in actually creating these power ratings.

I don't know how useful power rating each individual team in MLB would be for day to day wagers or totals, due to the intricacies of pitching matchups, umpires, previous games, historical scenarios, views of the betting public, etc., however, this would seem to be a decent start for the handicapping process, applying other factors to the underlying power ratings for a more complete analysis.

Where should one start to create these power ratings? Should one do this based on "feel", a combination of "feel" and statistics, or should this be essentially entirely statistics driven?

Should Pythagorean Expectation or a variant of this formula be the basis for the statistical portion of these power ratings? Should one also be looking to formulate recent Pythagorean Expectation "trends" (last 9, 18 games, etc.) into these power ratings? Any suggestions regarding Bill James' original formula, "Pythagenport", or "Pythagenpat"? Should this be calculated on an individual per game basis or can a simple current season calculation be sufficient? Should all games be weighted equally or should more weight be given to division games?

What other factors should be looked at when creating power ratings for beginning the handicapping process?