BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - Printable Version
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BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - mount187 - 01-03-2012 02:31 PM
Here were my thoughts on what to do with today's games:
I wanted to get better value on City to win (and hedge a draw), so I parlayed them with Spurs (who I think will win easy). Then I hedged that with some other outcomes.
Here is how it broke down (using $100 bets as an example):
Spurs / City m/l parlay: $100 pays $160.90
City draw: $50 pays $126
L'pool win: $26 pays $99.32
Spurs lose or draw: -$175
Spurs win / City lose: -$50.68
Spurs win / City draw: $0
Spurs win / City win: $84.90
I'm willing to risk the $175 that Spurs win, because they're at home, and should dominate this game. That means I've set up City on a p/k at risking $50.68 to win $84.90. Getting City at a +168 for a p/k is pretty good in my opinion.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - GrandaddyCrunk - 01-03-2012 02:36 PM
West Brom are in dangerous form, I am a bit worried about the game as a Spurs fan to be honest.
My only play for today is City/L'Pool o1 in the first half. I would be shocked if one team doesn't score early, especially the way City play at home. If it's just 1 goal, I'll take the push. Think it's far more likely that 2 goals are scored than 0 goals scored, so at odds of around evens, I'll take a play on it. City should win this, they rested up against Sunderland (and paid for it), but they will be hungry for a win now. Liverpool do however always raise their game for big sides, and have been decent away from home, so a draw isn't out of the question.
Good luck with your plays, I'll be hoping Spurs win, too. ;)
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - mount187 - 01-03-2012 02:41 PM
As a Spurs fan, I'm sure you know that they are much different at home. They've made a killing for 3-4 seasons beating the bottom half of the table at White Hart Lane.
Spurs winning is certainly not a lock, nothing ever is, but paying a -175 on them to beat West Brom, to get a +EV p/k for City at home was worth it to me.
[Edit] Almost everything I do with my soccer plays is trying to create good spots, rather than trying to make good predictions. I'm not always looking to play the most likely outcome, but am trying to set up scenarios where a) I can set up chances to get +EV on both teams and the draw at once or b) get a really good price on an outcome that I like. I know that's not the standard way of betting sports, but so far, manipulating the soccer market has been more productive for me than actually trying to predict outcomes.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - SkyBlues42 - 01-03-2012 03:19 PM
Man City off to a good start. Just saw this thread. I like what you did, Mount. Have you tried to approach other sports the same way you approach soccer?
You say "trying to create good spots, rather than trying to make good predictions." I think that's the best way to approach betting. You can try to predict the outcomes of many games, which will help you with handicapping, but the true value lies within the numbers. Work them in your favor and you'll find yourself in many +EV situations.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - mount187 - 01-03-2012 03:24 PM
(01-03-2012 03:19 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote: Man City off to a good start. Just saw this thread. I like what you did, Mount. Have you tried to approach other sports the same way you approach soccer?
I haven't really found a way to do it with other sports (mostly because I haven't thought about it that way). I'd love to know if you have any ideas on how to treat "American sports" that way.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - SkyBlues42 - 01-03-2012 03:42 PM
I haven't really looked into it, but it seems like using a teaser as a backup COULD work. Depending on how much you like a specific play. Only problem is, if your favorite play is wrong, you run the risk of losing both bets.
I actually just did the math, using the Michigan/Va. Tech game as an example. The risk is not worth the reward, in my opinion. I can post what I did, but not sure I want to.
After seeing it on paper, I'm starting to wonder what I was thinking.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - mount187 - 01-03-2012 03:59 PM
(01-03-2012 03:42 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote: I haven't really looked into it, but it seems like using a teaser as a backup COULD work. Depending on how much you like a specific play. Only problem is, if your favorite play is wrong, you run the risk of losing both bets.
I've done that before. "I have a great idea!" *writes up idea* "That was a horrible stupid idea." *delete*
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - SkyBlues42 - 01-03-2012 04:25 PM
I know it's early, and there will be a thread tomorrow, but what's your opinion on Manchester United tomorrow?
Last I saw, they were like -125 ML (or -145). Even so, one of their lowest ML's so far.
-126 at 5Dimes vs. Newcastle. And Wayne Rooney making his return.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - mount187 - 01-03-2012 04:29 PM
(01-03-2012 04:25 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote: I know it's early, and there will be a thread tomorrow, but what's your opinion on Manchester United tomorrow?
I hate Newcastle's team, and think they're playing WAY over their head. That being said, I have these thoughts (without doing any research):
Demba Ba is a goal-scoring machine. I hate having money on the line if he's in the lineup.
The game is at Newcastle, which is always scary.
City is going to take a 3 point lead on United today (I think), so United is going to need to keep pace. I fully expect United to come out with a real purpose tomorrow.
I plan on playing United, based on such a low line.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - GrandaddyCrunk - 01-03-2012 05:05 PM
I'll look at it very carefully tomorrow and post my thoughts on the games.
City/Pool o1 First Half = Cash It
Congrats on your wins as well, mount. Like I said though, Spurs made it tricky, following them for so long I knew this would be a let down spot. Fortunately, it seems like we are a bit more resilient this year, I really love our top 4 chances. What I was worried about pre-match, was Spurs last year would have drawn this match.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - GentlemanMasher - 01-03-2012 05:51 PM
I'll ask everyone in this thread...where's a good place, and who are good Tweeters, to check out for soccer betting.
With NFL and NCAA ending, I go into full footy mode for the rest of the season...and would love to have a bit more of an edge with placing bets.
Good win today, Mount! WBA was bunkering like crazy...glad to see Spurs finally able to win those kinds of games.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - JayPrimetown - 01-03-2012 06:05 PM
Won as well today with City... When it 1-0 I played the under as I didn't see Liverpool scoring today. Lost Tottenham -1.5. Thought they deserved to win by 2 goals, but you take it.
Newcastle hasn't done anything in weeks. I like Newcastle's keeper and United remembers he basically stood on his head to get a draw the last time the played. I'll be on United too...
statmyles is a good follow for soccer. Ditto Mount. I don't follow many other soccer bettors... to be honest there are few Americans who are good at it.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - mount187 - 01-04-2012 09:21 AM
Any Americans on here that have books that always have live lines for soccer matches? I mentioned on Twitter yesterday afternoon, that with Real Madrid down 2-0 at HT, I was looking to take them to win the game. The live line I heard was 9:1 at the 50' mark, but I couldn't get a line at Sportsbook-dot-com, and 5Dimes doesn't offer live soccer lines. Real ended up winning, which is a real bummer.
Then ... last night the Cavs were down nine early at home, and I tried to take them live and couldn't get a line for them either. They ended up winning the game by +10. Very frustrating.
I'll almost certainly be playing United, but wanted to throw this out there as well for Bolton / Everton:
Draw is +352: $100 pays $352
Bolton is +726: $50 pays $363
Everton EV: $200 pays $200 (This number would come from a live-line, and depending on game flow could be > EV)
Draw pays $102
Bolton pays $63
Everton pays $50
So basically, I'm betting $150 here that the game will be tied at some point near/after HT or Bolton will score first. You could play the 1H draw at +145, but that a) takes away the instant payout if Bolton scores first, and b) doesn't allow for the trailing team to tie the game in the 2H. Also, if Bolton does happen to score first, depending on what part of the game it is, you could easily end up with a payout of > $150 on all three outcomes.
Obviously if Everton scores first, it turns into a real suck-fest, but my experience for about 8 months now, is that trying to manipulate the live lines is much easier than paying huge m/l's on favorites and hoping they hang on.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - GrandaddyCrunk - 01-04-2012 01:40 PM
5Dimes has some live games, and halftime wagering available for most big league games.
Waiting for lineups today, but one play I already have o1 1st Half Newcastle-United. Once again, I think it's far more likely that there are 2 goals scored than 0. Newcastle are a bit leaky in defense, but have Ba who can score at any time, and United will be looking to bounce back quick after the Blackburn disaster, and also to stay in touch with City.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - mount187 - 01-04-2012 01:53 PM
(01-04-2012 01:40 PM)GrandaddyCrunk Wrote: 5Dimes has some live games, and halftime wagering available for most big league games.
5Dimes doesn't have live soccer betting though, do they?
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - GrandaddyCrunk - 01-04-2012 02:21 PM
(01-04-2012 01:53 PM)mount187 Wrote:(01-04-2012 01:40 PM)GrandaddyCrunk Wrote: 5Dimes has some live games, and halftime wagering available for most big league games.
Hm I personally don't use it, but for whatever reason I think I have seen it before, maybe it was during Champion's League. Or maybe I'm just thinking back to when I used BetOnline. But they definitely have halftime wagering.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - SkyBlues42 - 01-04-2012 04:54 PM
Thought there was a slim chance that Man U could lose today. But honestly didn't see a 3-0 debacle.
RE: BPL for Tuesday 1/3/2012 - mount187 - 01-04-2012 04:58 PM
(01-04-2012 04:54 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote: Thought there was a slim chance that Man U could lose today. But honestly didn't see a 3-0 debacle.
I posted on Twitter that I was backing off earlier. Something just didn't seem right. I almost fired anyways right before kickoff, and I'm glad I didn't.
I wish I had kept my Bolton +750, but I traded out live to lock in profit (which was the plan from the beginning). I was lucky to be in the spot I was to buy out for profit, so I didn't want to pass up the chance a second time.