The Philly Godfather thread - Printable Version
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RE: The Philly Godfather thread - ChiefZilla - 01-23-2012 02:52 PM
Not really sure what the point of this was, but I'll bite...
I'm a little skeptical that LSU players would quit on their coach in the national championship game "to prove to Miles that the players are more important than the coach."
Just seems to me, if they reach that far, they want to win a title. Period. Whether they like their coach at the time or not.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - phillygodfather - 01-27-2012 09:28 PM
I found Golden State +5 so I took some for a little change tonight in the NBA.. Good Luck
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - carmy - 01-27-2012 10:26 PM
Good Luck PGF.. I took OKL City earlier in the day at -4.5. Someone will win.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - phillygodfather - 02-05-2012 02:54 AM
I hope everyone has a great time tomorrow watching the Biggest GOY, I am on the Patriots but this game is a tough one to call. My best friend the Rooster is trying to cash his Giants Future so we wont be watching the game together for the 1st time in over a decade. Good Luck to all and have a safe one.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - Beyond the Bets - 02-05-2012 10:17 AM
Are the Pats an underdog yet?
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - mount187 - 02-10-2012 12:00 PM
I brought this up on Twitter with you a few weeks ago, and am just now getting around to following up here.
What percentage of games per weekend do you expect to be able to find +EV value for at given times of the year? If it's the NFL, are you expecting to there to be 3-4 +EV games, and pleasantly surprised if there are 5-6, and disappointed if you only find 1-2? Do you have a guess as to how many games will offer +EV, on average, for a full 150 game Saturday NCAAB slate? I realize that it's impossible to give an exact number here, so hopefully it doesn't come across like I'm completely retarded in asking this; I'm more trying to get a sense of how many games you expect to get action down on for most weeks/weekends for specific sports. If it's easier to help direct the conversation with a % of games, rather than a specific number, that would be helpful as well.
The reason I ask, is that I suspect most of the marbles, like myself, think we're finding value in way too many games, when realistically we should only be able to find value in half the games we're playing. I hope that makes sense, but if it doesn't,I'll try to expand on the thought after your response.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - SkyBlues42 - 02-12-2012 11:39 AM
bump. I'd like to see the answer to Mount's question.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - phillygodfather - 02-15-2012 07:39 PM
It makes total sense and is actually a good question. The problem is there is no good answer. I find that I have more +EV games during the beginning of every season regardless of the sport but even that is not always the case because I still have days in the first month of a season where I have no strong plays. Instead of cencentrating on the number of games I think it is much more important to have strong money management and getting the biggest bet on the strongest games. So many times I see bettors betting the same amount of a group of games and that is a recipe for disaster. If you have a game that is 4 points off and 6 games that are one point off then you should have a bet that is 4 times and up to 8 times as large at least and maybe more since it is a stronger play.
I will also get a little more aggressive if I find that I am winning a lot of close games and therefore I will play more games than I would normally. I know this may cloud the answer but there is a lot that goes into my selections. But I guess the moral of the story is to concentrate on money management and not the number of selections.
I will tell you this, I looked up all 16 weeks of this past football season and I bet 6 games on an average Sunday but only had an average of 1.4 strong games (games that I considered large bets).
Hope this helps.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - Beyond the Bets - 02-15-2012 10:15 PM
Good post, Philly. I am not a fan of flat betting. Like, at all. If you show me a pear, a banana, and an apple, and ask me which of the three I like most, I am not going to say, "I like all of them the same, therefore I can't choose."
I am going to tell you that I like the apple the most, the banana second most, and then I'm going to tell you to throw the pear in the garbage because pears are freakin' gross.
Likewise, if you tell me that you like Purdue +3, Northwestern +8.5 and UCLA -14.5, and I ask you, "Which of these three plays do you like most?" ... you aren't going to respond with, "I like them all equally."
Surely, there is one that you like more than the other two. You like it more because you think it has a better chance of hitting. And if you think it has a better chance of hitting, then you should bet that one for more money than the other two.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - jimmysingh9 - 02-15-2012 11:26 PM
good explanation. also agree that flat betting isnt good. I am not sure why people do it. It means they cannot distinguish between their valuation of games.
I think why some people do flat betting is because they probably have bad money management and throw their whole bankroll or close to it on a wager and end up losing. I think alot of people think when you love a play, it means bet the farm, which isnt the way to go. the money management like PGF said is the key.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - joeytunes2 - 02-16-2012 12:21 PM
PGF...what exactly happened at pre game? or u rather not say??
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - BetATL - 02-16-2012 01:26 PM
I think every professional would tell you that Kelly betting is more profitable than flat betting in the long run.
Problem is, not many people can correctly estimate their edge. The toughest thing to do in sports betting is accurately asses the edge you have on a certain play.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - phillygodfather - 02-16-2012 08:07 PM
(02-16-2012 12:21 PM)joeytunes2 Wrote: PGF...what exactly happened at pre game? or u rather not say??
I will let you guys know in a couple weeks what really happened.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - Beyond the Bets - 02-16-2012 08:12 PM
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - phillygodfather - 02-17-2012 06:00 PM
Top 8 teams in College Hoops are #1 Kentucky, #2 Ohio St, #3 Kansas, #4 Michigan St, #5 Syracuse, #6 North Carolina, #7 Missouri, #8 Wichita St.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - JayPrimetown - 02-17-2012 06:14 PM
Where do you have Marquette, Michigan, and UNLV?
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - lindetrain - 02-17-2012 07:33 PM
(02-16-2012 01:26 PM)BetATL Wrote: I think every professional would tell you that Kelly betting is more profitable than flat betting in the long run.
Bingo. Also, varied unit betting can be disastrous if you're not seeing things particularly well over a period of time. Probably not best to have more on the game you like the most if you've only been hitting at a 50% clip over the last few weeks/months.
Just a matter of preference. I'd argue I win more flat betting 95% of my plays than I would if I varied units on each.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - phillygodfather - 02-17-2012 08:43 PM
Marquette #18th, UNLV #22, Michigan #30
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - Beyond the Bets - 02-17-2012 11:07 PM
(02-17-2012 08:43 PM)phillygodfather Wrote:
UNLV is garbage away from Thomas & Mack. Michigan can play with anybody.
RE: The Philly Godfather thread - phillygodfather - 02-17-2012 11:38 PM
(02-17-2012 11:07 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:(02-17-2012 08:43 PM)phillygodfather Wrote:
One mans trash is another mans treasure, take UNLV tomorrow. Good Luck