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College football Week 1 experts picks - Beyond the Bets - 08-31-2011 02:23 PM
All experts are to post their Week 1 plays in this thread. If possible, provide a one paragraph explanation for your pick.
Also: Please also provide a predicted final score. These will be useful down the road as the contest progresses, as they'll be used for tiebreaker purposes.
Still no final word on the details regarding the contest, but there will be a prize of some sort, as promised.
If you would like to take a team but have yet to sign up, just ask. I'd be happy to get you signed up. Deadline to register is Saturday at 11 a.m. ET.
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - TuskTusk - 08-31-2011 02:39 PM
Not to hijack this thread, but is a play on EITHER the side or total, involving your team sufficient?
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - Beyond the Bets - 08-31-2011 02:53 PM
(08-31-2011 02:39 PM)TuskTusk Wrote: Not to hijack this thread, but is a play on EITHER the side or total, involving your team sufficient?
Must be a side. Sorry.
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - vegasobie - 08-31-2011 03:25 PM
UNLV @ Wisconsin(-35)
Spreads like this are usually a crapshoot. Obivously, the Badgers have the talent to name their score against the Rebels, but will they? History tells us they won't. In the last 15 home openers Wisconsin has won by an avg. of 18 points per game, including 1-3 ATS in the last 4 home openers, and many of those games were not against teams any better than UNLV. Over the last 4 years when Wisconsin is a 24 point or more favorite, they are 1-3 ATS. One of those losses was with UNLV as they won in Vegas 20-13 as 25.5 point favorite. However, on the flip side, UNLV as a 24 point or higher 'dog the last 5 years is 2-5 ATS and 3 of those losses were last year. Last year Wisconsin was a 20 point favorite against UNLV here in Vegas and the game was a push(41-21 final). A year later, both teams have new starting QB's, though the Badgers QB has plenty of college starting experience, and the spread is 15 points higher. Essentially these are the same two teams that met last year, but this will be the Rebels second year in Coach Hauck's system, so they should be a bit better. If this game were later in the year, I would probably lay the points. Wisconsin seems to get stronger as the year goes along and with their powerful O-Line and running game can take advantage of beat up teams down the stretch. But this game isn't early on, so my inclination is to take the points. This line may be a bit inflated based on results from the end of last year. Wisconsin was simply manhandling teams near the end of the year and UNLV all but mailed it in after the rivalry game with Nevada. The first year coach started playing younger players to really look at what he had for the future. I think the Rebels will put up just enough points to stay within 35 and expect Wisconsin to take it easy late in the game with Oregon State on tap next week.
Final Score: Wisconsin-42, UNLV-17
The Play: UNLV +35
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - TheSportsMarket - 08-31-2011 04:02 PM
Akron +34 @ Ohio St. Although Akron is nowhere close to the talent level of Ohio St. (even with the suspensions), we believe there has been too much turmoil in Columbus to start the season. Listing both Senior Joe Bauserman and True Freshman Braxton Miller as 1st on the depth chart shows that new coach Luke Fickell is nervous about both options. Bauserman has never been impressive in his little play for the Buckeyes. Miller at one point said, "I've got most of the running plays down pat, the passing plays I get confused sometimes on the routes because there's a lot of them. ... It'll probably take years to get everything down pat." The QB situation certainly makes us nervous.
In the past, when Ohio St. was breaking in a young or new QB, they always had a great defense and running game to rely on. For this game, they will be missing their starting RBs from last year due to suspension (Herron) and graduation (Saine). They’ll also be missing a starting Offensive Lineman and their best WR (which will only matter if there is even a QB capable of throwing to him). Their great defense from last year lost a lot to graduation. Ohio St’s talent gap will easily allow them to win this game, but with all things considered, 34 points seems about a TD too high.
Ohio State 31 Akron 7
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - acfrahm - 08-31-2011 06:26 PM
Boise St. (-3) @ Georgia (in the Georgia Dome)
Obviously this is one of the biggest games of the weekend, and although I think UGA will have a bounceback year, Boise St. will probably be a little too much for the young Dawgs to handle. I expect Georgia to come out fast considering its a national game in the Georgia Dome with 95% Georgia fans. I see this game playing out a lot the way the Va. Tech - Boise St. game last year did. I think it will be close most of the way with Boise pulling it out in the end.
UGA should be improved on defense, but I question how quickly they will come together. I don't think they will be sharp enough early in the season to stop Kellen Moore.
On offense, Aaron Murray an the O-line are high spots, but running back and receiver are question marks. Right now, Richard Samuel is listed as the starter at RB, but all everything freshman Isaiah Crowell should get the majority of the carries. Reports are Marlon Brown had a strong camp and should take a big step this year. Orson Charles at TE should be Murray's favorite weapon.
I personally won't be betting this game. I think that the line has settled about where it should be, both for the total and the spread. If you do make a play, its too tough to bet against Boise St. here. I think Boise St.'s experience makes the difference in the end.
THE PLAY: BOISE ST. (-3)
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: 34-27
Twitter Handle: ACFrahm
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - Sandlapper - 08-31-2011 07:37 PM
Troy @ Clemson(-16)
The 2011-2012 campaign marks a season of new beginnings for the Clemson Tigers. After what was a disappointing season last year head coach Dabo Swinney decided to make a change at Offensive Coordinator. Coach Swinney brings in Chad Morris from Tulsa. Although Chad Morris only spent one year at Tulsa(his only year coaching in college) he produced a top 10 offense. Early reports from practice say that it's exciting to watch and moves at a breakneck pace.
Also new this year is Tajh Boyd under center for the Tigers. Tajh was highly recruited out of high school and is considered a dual threat QB. According to reports coming out of practices many of the younger guys on the team could see significant playing time after some less than stellar showings from some of the upperclassmen.
I admittedly don't know that much about Troy other than they're better than the general public would think based on the lack of recognition from their name. To get a scoop on Troy this year I checked in with Troy superfan @TrojanChad on Twitter and he gave me this:
"Great pocket qb, but new receivers. Defense may or may not show up. I'll wait on the over/under. Also watch 4 early series trick play."
Despite the fact that Clemson is installing a brand new offense to a young team, I really like reports coming of practice about how they've been handling it. Come Saturday, I look for Clemson to run down the hill and never slow down...
Clemson 34 - Troy 14
The Play: Clemson -16
P.S. Can I get my Clemson helmet now?
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - GopherGuy - 08-31-2011 09:19 PM
I've got Minnesota.
WEEK 1: USC (-23) vs. Minnesota
THE PLAY: Minnesota (+23)
PREDICTION: USC 31, Minnesota 17
Last year, USC only beat Minnesota 32-21 against a much weaker Minnesota team with a terrible coaching staff. Minnesota’s new QB, MarQueis Gray is very mobile and USC has had past trouble against mobile quarterbacks. New coach Jerry Kill has already distinctly changed the culture, outlook and discipline in the Minnesota program. The disciplined style will be focused on ball control and shortening the game. USC will be without RB Marc Tyler. I think USC will be overlooking their Week 1 opponent. Minnesota does not have the talent to beat USC, but they are able to compete and keep it close. USC’s pass defense is suspect, but not sure Minnesota has the weapons to take advantage. However, Minnesota’s kicking game is greatly improved with NC State transfer Hawthorne, which will pay immediate dividends in keeping them in games. Minnesota does not get much respect as a perennial second division Big Ten team, combined with USC’s popularity; I think the line is a few points too high to go with USC. I think they will do just enough to keep it respectable and no blowout.
I think Minnesota is getting too many points not to take the Gophers this weekend.
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - @oconnellp - 09-01-2011 01:02 AM
Matchup: TCU vs. Baylor
The play: TCU (-4.5)
Outcome: TCU 35 - Baylor 24
I cant believe the line this year came down this low. The spread in this match-up last year i think was around 21, and as someone who watched firsthand the Horned Frogs destroy the Bears in every facet of the game last year, it seems like a line of 4.5 is thievery. Baylor wasnt even remotely competitive in a game which ended with a 45-10 score. It could have been much much worse, but Gary Patterson called off the dogs in the 3rd quarter. As an in game coach, Patterson is far superior to an outmatched Art Briles, which is one of many reasons why TCU covers this game.
Baylor lost 7 guys off of last years defense which wasnt good to begin with. First round DL Phil Taylor is gone, along with 1st round OL Danny Watkins, and leading reciever suspended Josh Gordon. They've still got weapons with all everything Robert Griffin @ QB, and a decent o-line coming back, but too many new pieces and not quite enough to keep up with TCU's hard nose disciplined attack. With TCU its much less about specific personel, and more about the system, a la the Patriots of the NFL. And their system is better than Baylor's.
Accuscore.com has TCU winning this game 70% of the time in their simulations, which im surprised is not higher, but still significant.
Bet the (-4.5) with confidence
While we're at it there's no way with their schedule that Baylor goes over their 6.5 win total. At (-145) thats a lot of juice at this point, but theyre not winning 7 games.
Other win totals I REALLY like
Georgia OVER 8 wins
Oregon ST OVER 7 wins (+180)
Stanford OVER 8.5 wins
Texas ATM UNDER 8.5 (+185)
Texas Tech OVER 7 (+120)
Wash ST UNDER 4.5
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - Bucky42 - 09-01-2011 09:31 AM
Speaking for Wisconsin here, I don't really know what can I add that wasn't said by VegasObie. Except this, there are alot of new pieces to this Wisconsin team. 2 new OL, new QB, some inexperience at WR, lost there best Def player ( DE JJ Watt), 2 LBs, and 2 DBs. That's alot of turnover to be laying 35, especially since I expect UNLV to be better then they were last year. I would take agree with VegasObie and take UNLV +35.
Wisconsin 42 UNLV 10
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - MrTaterhead - 09-01-2011 11:54 AM
Louisiana-Monroe (ULM) vs Fla St(-29.5)
With Fla St looking ahead to OK in 2 weeks, ULM is poised to make the upset of the year in Week 1. This ULM team is not like teams of the past. With a new coaching staff ,we were outscored 134-7 vs our 3 BCS foes(Ark, Auburn and LSU) last year. This year ULM returns 19 starters including, QB Kolton Browning who threw for 2500 yds and 18TDs, and Athlete Luther Ambrose (1200 yds,6TDs) on offense.
I expect a veteran ULM team to play a turnover free game and this to be closer than most would think.
FlSt 38 ULM 17
ULM +29.5
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - SDiPaola1 - 09-01-2011 12:04 PM
Syracuse vs. Wake Forest
So the Syracuse line has moved to SU -6. I think Vegas is underestimating the coaching staff of this team. YES, the defense lost several key components to graduation. But Scott Shaffer is a fantastic D Coordinator and I expect this unit to not miss a beat. They may not be #7 nationally like they were last year, but I do not think the drop will be too drastic. Keep in mind as well that the talent level overall is the best it has been in Coach Doug Marrone's tenure. Their team speed on D is mentioned time and again and this group are a bunch of big hitters.
Wake returns 17 starters, but their talent level has dipped in recent years. They will more than likely be starting 6+ sophomores, including their QB, making this a rather inexperienced team.
I think SU's attacking D will cause QB Price to make mistakes. I like SU's veteran O-Line to maul a rather undersized front 3 of Wake.
THE PLAY: SU -6
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - HujoTDs - 09-01-2011 12:53 PM
Matchup: Rice vs. Texas
The play: Rice (+24.5)
Outcome: Texas 38 - Rice 17
I think this is a pretty sharp line. Now that its over 24 I think there is very slight value on Rice. I suspect Taylor McHargue will start at QB for Rice but David Bailiff hasn't announced yet. McHargue played well against Texas last year and after coming back from injury played well their last two games.
I think Texas will play with more enthusiasm than they did in this game last year, which was a 3 hour yawn, since they're playing at home, at night, with the new coaches and all the freshmen. That said I think Rice's offense is strong enough to get two scores and with that it'll be tough to cover 24.5.
An under talked about rumor are the rumblings that Gilbert could be booed when he runs out for the first series. As a Texas Ex I pray to God that doesn't come to fruition but that wouldn't necessarily set the tone for the night.
Another under talked about story, that doesn't necessarily pertain to sports betting, is a war of words in the media ongoing that no one hasn't mentioned. On Monday Mack Brown announced that if they played that day Garrett Gilbert would be the starter but if it weren't for a coaching moral code he wouldn't announce until Saturday. Well, David Bailiff isn't planning to announce until Saturday.
MISSOURI/MIAMI OH ANALYSIS - ChiefZilla - 09-01-2011 01:37 PM
Posted this in a different thread but it looks like this is the place where it should go. UPDATE: Missouri is now -20.5 at BetOnline, so it's moved from -17 to -20.5 since Sunday or Monday.
------
Line: Mizzou -19 (and moving up) ... O/U 47.5
Mizzou coach Gary Pinkel is a former MAC guy who loves going against his old conference. He schedules one MAC opponent each year and is 8-2 SU against the MAC since taking over at Missouri.
Pinkel SU/ATS against the MAC in recent years...
2010: Miami OH +20 at Missouri.... 51-13 W,W
2009: Bowling Green +19.5 at Missouri.... 27-20 W,L
2008: Buffalo +32.5 at Missouri.... 42-21 W,L
2007: Western Michigan +20.5 at Missouri.... 52-24 W,W
2006: Ohio +22 at Missouri.... 31-6 W,W
So he's 3-2 ATS in the last five years. In this game, Mizzou faces a Miami OH team that went 1-11 in 2009 and then 10-4 and won the MAC in 2010. Don Treadwell (former OC at Michigan St) takes over at his alma mater. Remember, Treadwell coached two games at MSU last year when Dantonio went down with a heart attack near the beginning of the year. Treadwell's offenses always scored a decent amount of points at MSU and he takes over an offense with 8 returning starters including the QB.
The question for Mizzou, of course, is at QB, where dual-threat James Franklin takes over for NFL first-rounder Blaine Gabbert. Remarkably, in Pinkel's 10 years at Mizzou he's only played three regular QBs (Brad Smith, Chase Daniel, Blaine Gabbert). Franklin saw limited playing time as a freshman last year and showed an ability to make plays with both his arms and legs. He has a ton of weapons around him (nine returning offensive starters), including preseason all-american TE Michael Egnew.
While I would give a lean to Missouri at the current line of -19, I think the better play is on the over at 47.5. I fully expect Treadwell and the Redhawks to be able to put some points up on a Tigers defense that lost a handful of playmakers from last season's best unit in the Pinkel era, but Franklin has drawn nothing but rave reviews from teammates throughout the fall practices and I don't see much of a problem for Mizzou scoring into the 30's (and probably the 40's).
Final score prediction: Missouri 35, Miami OH 17.
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - RyanParrill - 09-01-2011 03:21 PM
Matchup: Western Michigan vs. Michigan
The play: Michigan (-14)
Outcome: Western Michigan 17 - Michigan 35
While at Ball State, Hoke faced Bill Cubit 4 times and went 3-1 (SU & ATS). Michigan returns the B1G Offensive POY. While the offense may change philosophies and make establishing the power running game a priority at first, this offense will continue to do many of the things it did well. Borges will run more shotgun than he has his entire career, and Denard excels there. While there may be some growing pains, there is enough veteran leadership and depth to exploit a MAC opponent. As our own BTB said, "I don't think we've seen the best from Robinson. Actually, I know we haven't. Keep this guy healthy, put him in the gun and let him do his thing." In 3 years Michigan lost to Appalachian State and Toledo. I know, I remember. And because I remember I can see the difference in all of these teams.
Bill Cubit is 1-5 ATS with 5 straight losses. His first season opener, the only one he has covered, they came off a 1-10 season with 10 straight losses to end the year. He welcomes back Alex Carder as the QB and while he may do very well this year, his numbers against better opponents is not that impressive. As pointed out, In games against ND and MSU last year Carder averaged 5.4 YPA—Threet/Sheridan numbers (
)—and threw two TDs to three interceptions. He had 104 yards on 33 attempts against Idaho in a 33-13 loss. Playing a MAC schedule he finished 35th in passer efficiency. Same goes for a very talented WR in Jordan White. He proved this by averaging a whopping 10.5 yards per catch against MSU and Notre Dame. They'll be going up against a defensive line that I thought could carry this defense last year. I think this year will be more accurate given: 1) Not only are most returning, they have senior leadership with experience 2) They have 3 coaches with DL experience (Hoke-HC, Mattison-DC, Montgomery-DL coach) 3) Mark Martin will be an NFL 1st rounder.My score reflects a play on the under. I'm not going to make a recommendation either way on the O/U 61. Michigan is going to try and establish ball control, which could easily produce an under, and all my score predictions have reflected that. But, this game does have the potential for a lot of points in the 4th quarter.
Most of this came from the more in-depth previews in the CFB News & Update Thread.
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - itg_sports - 09-01-2011 03:38 PM
Game 1: Texas State Bobcats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders
Although I have heard that Tuberville himself has made statements indicating that he is looking ahead all the way to week 5, a recent interview given by Dennis Franchione put the nail in the coffin for me on this one. He just does not sound like a coach that believes his team has a chance and it is evident that the move to the WAC next year is first on everyone's list. Tech's play was a letdown for Red Raider fans last year and Tuberville needs to use this week 1 game, against a cupcake in Lubbock, to bring the faithful back into the fold. The line is at 38.5 and Tech covers while beating up on a fellow Texas team with delight before they have to play A&M and UT.
The play: Tech -38.5
Predicted Score: 59-10
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - Spburn2 - 09-01-2011 05:58 PM
Figured I'd post this under this thread as well
Kentucky -19.5 (-110) vs Western Kentucky O/U 51.5 (-110)
Game is being played at LP Field in Nashville, TN
Line opened: UK -18
History
2010: @UK 63 – WKU 28; UK -23.5 and O/U 53.5
Score was 42-14 at half with WKU’s two TDs coming on a 59yd run and a kickoff return
2008: @UK 41 – WKU 3; UK -19.5 and O/U 45.5
In these two games, WKU’s QBs are 11/25 for 105 yds and 1 TD, 1 INT. It seems safe to say WKU’s passing game is non-existent and they pretty much only use it on 3rd and long.
WKU is returning their starting rb Rainey who is pretty good (>1600 yd and 15td in 2010) and put up 184yds and 2td on 24 carries against the Wildcats last year. However, even an excellent performance by him couldn’t make up for a negligent passing game and a defense that was just overpowered by UK’s bigger and better lineman. The line paved the way for 206 yds on the ground and 4 td on 44 carries. UK QBs also displayed a conservative and accurate passing attack going 19/23 for 276 and 4td.
Overall, UKs offense was able to bully a smaller and less talented WKU defense that allowed UK to score touchdowns on 8 of 11 drives. While WKU has improved their talent level each year since moving to the D1 Sun Belt Conference in 2009, I do not think it is significant enough to be impactful against an SEC team (and yes I know people hardly consider UK to be an “SEC caliber” team). Look for Kentucky to control the game by running the ball about 45 times and put up around 250yds on the ground. They will probably try and get Newton comfortable in the pocket and throw a lot of screens and short passes. The defense will be able to single cover WKU’s receivers so they can load the box and aggressively run blitz to stop Western’s main point of attack.
The game is technically counted as a home game for WKU, but I can assure you from my experience of attending UK’s 3 bowl games in Nashville over the last 5 years, that the crowd will be predominately Wildcats fans. This game will feature a lot rushing attempts and shorter passes that should keep the game clock moving.
My prediction: UK 38 – WKU 14
I advise to bet on UK to cover, up to 3 touchdowns, as Western’s players will be simply outmatched against the more talented and bigger players of KY.
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - The Cosmic Kid - 09-01-2011 07:21 PM
Eastern Kentucky vs. Kansas State -29
Bill Synder has won 18 season openers in a row, and No. 19 should not be difficult. The line has moved a few points, crossing the four-touchdown mark and bettors are still taking K-State. Eastern Kentucky's starting quarterback, T.J. Pryor will miss the game with a hand injury, and will have to rely on a true freshman quarterback at a sold-out (53,000-capacity
![[Image: yawn.gif]](http://www.journobiz.com/forums/images/smilies/yawn.gif)
) crowd. Colin Klein will start the game at quarterback for K-State, and Bryce Brown (No.1 Rivals recruit in the country in 2009) is listed at No. 3 in the depth chart. The Wildcats should see several runningbacks and probably a couple of quarterbacks getting involved in this game, and the second- and third-string units will be looking to score. Also, K-State's defense has been pretty bad the last couple of years, so they might try to prove a point against a much less-talented team.I'm sitting this game out, because 29 points is a bit too much for me, but K-State is probably the play.
On second thought, give me EKU +29!
K-State 42, Eastern Kentucky 13... err, K-State 45, Eastern Kentucky 13.
The play: K-State -29
![[Image: wtCWC.Em.81.jpg]](http://media.kansascity.com/smedia/2011/08/30/17/18/wtCWC.Em.81.jpg)
Feel free to chip in, BTB!
Oh, and if you want to watch, be sure to check out K-StateHD.TV for only $9.95 a month.
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - @oconnellp - 09-01-2011 07:55 PM
(09-01-2011 01:02 AM)@oconnellp Wrote: Matchup: TCU vs. Baylor
The play: TCU (-4.5)
Outcome: TCU 35 - Baylor 24
I cant believe the line this year came down this low. The spread in this match-up last year i think was around 21, and as someone who watched firsthand the Horned Frogs destroy the Bears in every facet of the game last year, it seems like a line of 4.5 is thievery. Baylor wasnt even remotely competitive in a game which ended with a 45-10 score. It could have been much much worse, but Gary Patterson called off the dogs in the 3rd quarter. As an in game coach, Patterson is far superior to an outmatched Art Briles, which is one of many reasons why TCU covers this game.
Baylor lost 7 guys off of last years defense which wasnt good to begin with. First round DL Phil Taylor is gone, along with 1st round OL Danny Watkins, and leading reciever suspended Josh Gordon. They've still got weapons with all everything Robert Griffin @ QB, and a decent o-line coming back, but too many new pieces and not quite enough to keep up with TCU's hard nose disciplined attack. With TCU its much less about specific personel, and more about the system, a la the Patriots of the NFL. And their system is better than Baylor's.
Accuscore.com has TCU winning this game 70% of the time in their simulations, which im surprised is not higher, but still significant.
Bet the (-4.5) with confidence
While we're at it there's no way with their schedule that Baylor goes over their 6.5 win total. At (-145) thats a lot of juice at this point, but theyre not winning 7 games.
Update. This game is down to 3.5 @ the LV Hilton. Free money anyone???
RE: College football Week 1 experts picks - KJ_in_OK - 09-01-2011 09:31 PM
Matchup: LA Lafayette v Okie St (-38)
The play: No Play
Outcome: Cowboys 51 v Cajun's 17
Too much uncertainty leading into this game to feel comfortable releasing a play. I really want to let you know when I have a serious play regarding Ok St. Cowboys have had tremendous turnover at defense and at the OC position. They have a high powered offense lead by Brandon Weedon and Biletnikoff winner Justin Blackmonwith a great Offensive line with solid special teams and a defense that according to reports looks like it may end up average. Regarding Lafayette new HC who is hiding a lot of what they intend to do with their offense. Oklahoma State scored plenty on LaL's Defense in the second half last year when these two teams played.
Too much of a crap shoot with a line like that, I can't in endorse either side.
Good Luck this weekend