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+--- Thread: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) (/thread-spotting-props-and-futures-value-volunteers-wanted)
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Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - VincentValour - 08-06-2012 07:28 PM
The idea is to have 1-2 guys watching each offshore book to identify when there is great value to be had with props, futures, etc. Then post the bet and line in the forum for all of us to benefit from. Value could be found from off/rogue lines, middle/arbitrage opportunity, books being slow to change a line, and other stuff.
I'm also looking to start a calender to identify these often botched events. Any ideas for that would be great as well.
We'll need to look for value in everything at least once every two nights, if not every night and report if anything is off. This would include everything the books offer. Presidential elections, Tennis, Golf, and other crazy events.
So if you want to take a specific book step up, volunteer, and we'll get this going and get some dynamite 5 star selections!!!
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - Beyond the Bets - 08-06-2012 07:32 PM
I am planning to create a futures/props sub-forum specifically for this project/experiment. If any of you belong to a book and monitor it fairly closely (on a daily or bi-daily basis), let us know which one. I can volunteer to keep tabs on 5Dimes.
Sure would be nice if someone from Canada with a Pinnacle account could help out with this project. (cc: @kreatture)
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - ericvanden2010 - 08-06-2012 08:08 PM
I would definitely love to contribute! I am not from Canada but do have a open Pinnacle Account and watch sportsbook.com like a hawk. I would love to take on these sportsbook but if anybody really wants to help with Pinny, by all means! Really glad we are doing this.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - VincentValour - 08-06-2012 08:12 PM
Sportsbook.com for you it is. Have you had any issues with them?
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - ericvanden2010 - 08-06-2012 08:17 PM
Mixed reviews. They have slowed paid for months but have also paid within 10 days. Some of their lines are so off, it's worth the risk. This will be a more than worth while experiment.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - Wiseguy - 08-06-2012 08:24 PM
I will contribute. I love this idea, I have multiple outs none are post up sites. I dont know if this helps but most are running software of the offshores and have the same lines. Let me know if I can help.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - Beyond the Bets - 08-06-2012 08:38 PM
Pick a book.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - VincentValour - 08-06-2012 08:42 PM
(08-06-2012 08:24 PM)Wiseguy Wrote: I will contribute. I love this idea, I have multiple outs none are post up sites. I dont know if this helps but most are running software of the offshores and have the same lines. Let me know if I can help.
Whichever offshores run the same software would be a great pick.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - JayPrimetown - 08-06-2012 08:55 PM
I mostly use 5Dimes, but I also use BetOnline. If that is something that interests you. How do we determine if a line is off without knowing what all the other books are offering?
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - ericvanden2010 - 08-06-2012 09:06 PM
In my opinion, I compare all other books to Pinnacle. They always seem to have the least amount of mistakes and always seem to be on top of things. They also have the least amount of movement on Props and usually ends up fairly close to where their line was at the beginning. Not sure if this is valid reasoning though
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - VincentValour - 08-06-2012 09:12 PM
(08-06-2012 08:55 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote: I mostly use 5Dimes, but I also use BetOnline. If that is something that interests you. How do we determine if a line is off without knowing what all the other books are offering?
If you could do BetOnline that would be great. Determining if a line is off would probably be done comparing lines at various books. I would guess most here have two books to compare. That is the first way, and secondly I think most of us on the forum have a good idea if and when a line looks funny.
Also with the calender idea I'm hoping to do a thread where we post all the volatile lines for middles/arbitrage of events that happen once or twice a year. I.E. (NFL draft, NBA draft, Oscars)
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - VincentValour - 08-06-2012 09:16 PM
I've been working on some ideas for this for awhile and when BTB mentioned a very similar idea, it seemed like it was time to get this rolling. I have some other ideas for it that will hopefully come to fruition as we get going on this. BTW I'll take Heritage.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - JayPrimetown - 08-06-2012 09:21 PM
Honestly, I think BetOnline has some of the worst value on standard futures.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - JayPrimetown - 08-06-2012 09:22 PM
Probably makes sense to look at a certain future / sport at a time. To look at everything... is extremely expansive. Especially during the Olympics.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - ericvanden2010 - 08-06-2012 09:26 PM
Yeah I placed 37 Olympic Bets with lines that were off. For example, 1 site had "Will Veronica Campbell win the Gold" I placed a "No" wager at $220/$100 (-220) and a ton of sites had her at -1000 or worse. There is tremendous value out there and with several eyes out there hunting, this is sure to be a large component of this site.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - VincentValour - 08-06-2012 09:28 PM
Right EV, we're not looking for standard futures per say. Just off numbers for value or "creative" betting.
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - ericvanden2010 - 08-06-2012 09:56 PM
Yeah that's why this one was so juicy but it was risky of getting caught....
http://www.beyondthebets.com/forum/thread-the-greek--3509
Also, let me be the first to throw one out there. Not sure how the structure will go with these but I'll give it a whirl:
200 Meter Mens Prop:
Pinnacle: Will the Final be by more than .13 Seconds ? Yes is -273
Sportsbook.com: Will the Final be by more than .09 Seconds? Yes is -160
In my opinion this is HUGE. We are getting .04 (which is nearly half the extra time) and getting -160 vs. -273.
Not sure VV or BTB if this is the structure you want to go on but figured I'd contribute. Thanks!
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - Beyond the Bets - 08-06-2012 10:11 PM
For now, I just want to get people to sign up for certain books. Then, once we have a bunch of 'em accounted for, I'll create a sub-forum and name each thread by book. Those in charge of the various books will be in charge of updating the individual threads.
While the focus should be on posting "off" numbers, I think there's also value in bringing NEW props/futures to the attention of everyone. For instance, 5Dimes recently threw up about 40 college football win totals of random, obscure teams that no other book had. The numbers were awful. So, point 'em out and the rest of us can try to analyze them.
Just because multiple books aren't offering the same prop doesn't mean the numbers aren't "off."
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - ericvanden2010 - 08-06-2012 10:13 PM
Got it, sorry!
RE: Spotting Props and Futures Value (Volunteers Wanted) - JayPrimetown - 08-06-2012 10:15 PM
(08-06-2012 09:56 PM)ericvanden2010 Wrote: Yeah that's why this one was so juicy but it was risky of getting caught....
http://www.beyondthebets.com/forum/thread-the-greek--3509
Also, let me be the first to throw one out there. Not sure how the structure will go with these but I'll give it a whirl:
200 Meter Mens Prop:
Pinnacle: Will the Final be by more than .13 Seconds ? Yes is -273
Sportsbook.com: Will the Final be by more than .09 Seconds? Yes is -160
In my opinion this is HUGE. We are getting .04 (which is nearly half the extra time) and getting -160 vs. -273.
Not sure VV or BTB if this is the structure you want to go on but figured I'd contribute. Thanks!
BetOnline doesn't have this prop.
5Dimes has .135 seconds:
More: -220
Less: +180
So, if you played 5Dimes less .135 (+180) and Sportsbook more .09 Yes (-160) you guarantee yourself some profit, with a possibility to middle.
BTB - I know your thing is football totals, specifically college football win totals. While I think there's value in analyzing them, probably more value in the more obscure event props such as this 200 meter dash prop.