Wrigley totals / wind blowing out - Printable Version
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Wrigley totals / wind blowing out - Beyond the Bets - 06-27-2012 09:32 AM
Cubs-Mets over/under is at 11.5. Wind blowing out.
Over the last few years, it's been widely believed that betting the over on high totals (10 or more) at Wrigley Field has been profitable.
But over the last decade, it's actually been a better bet to go under.
Since 2002, the over on totals of 10 or more is just 95-106-6, a rate of 47 percent. The sub .500 win percentage—combined with the added juice—isn't close to profitable. This year, Wrigley totals of 10 or more have gone under five of six times.
* * *
<em><strong>2002-'06:</strong> Over 41; Under 51; Push 4</em>
<em> <strong>2007-'12: </strong>Over 54; Under 55; Push 2</em>
RE: Wrigley totals / wind blowing out - JetsMetsRangers - 06-27-2012 09:36 AM
Good find BTB, I'll make a play on the under.
RE: Wrigley totals / wind blowing out - Beyond the Bets - 06-27-2012 09:38 AM
This isn't a trend worth blindly fading. It's barely - barely - profitable over time. No edge to be found either way, in my opinion.
But lots of folks have acted like betting overs at Wrigley on high totals is 'free money,' and that simply hasn't been the case. Like, at all.
RE: Wrigley totals / wind blowing out - JetsMetsRangers - 06-27-2012 11:57 AM
I ended up adding it because the odds shot up to +105. Yeah I know the wind factor and all that, but these are two solid pitchers and two mediocre (to be very kind for CHI) lineups.
RE: Wrigley totals / wind blowing out - JetsMetsRangers - 06-27-2012 02:42 PM
9-1 Mets in 5th, cya bet!
RE: Wrigley totals / wind blowing out - Huskers20 - 06-28-2012 09:26 PM
I think living here and having a "feeling" on weather and wind does help. Some of the days earlier this year have been cross winds when they have said blowing out and also what might happen w/ the weather once the game gets started. I have followed some of this info earlier this year, when it was warm in spring, but wasn't quite the true "hot" day and the under was the play.
I know this is after the fact, sorry I was in meetings all day yesterday and today, but, knowing that the temp was going from a beautiful 78 on tuesday to the start of a warm front/heat wave temps in the mid 90's, change of weather yesterday had over all over this one.