+- Beyond the Bets Sports Betting Forum (http://www.beyondthebets.com/forum)
+-- Forum: General (/forum-general)
+--- Forum: Sports Betting (/forum-sports-betting)
+--- Thread: Never bet these but like this one, grand salami under 122.5 for thursday (/thread-never-bet-these-but-like-this-one-grand-salami-under-122-5-for-thursday)
Never bet these but like this one, grand salami under 122.5 for thursday - gynecologist - 05-17-2012 10:10 AM
Sorry for creating a new thread but I'd like to know if anyone bets these?
I know a sharp guy who limit bets these and says he does well.
Well I really like the under today, lots of getaway days and good pitching matchups. See a lot of games falling under 5.
Only game I see getting out of hand is possibly texas.
Any thoughts on todays wager and the grand salami wager in general?
RE: Never bet these but like this one, grand salami under 122.5 for thursday.. - Dullbettor - 05-17-2012 12:32 PM
I bet this under today as well. I liked your thoughts on there being a lot of get away games today, and it seems like there's potential for a couple games to be real low scoring. Need to average 8 runs or less per game.
RE: Never bet these but like this one, grand salami under 122.5 for thursday.. - Beyond the Bets - 05-17-2012 12:40 PM
I generally avoid the Grand Salami unless it's a smaller card. When it's a 14 or 15-game card, it's too much of a crapshoot. Generally, I think most people assume that the Grand Salami total is derived by merely adding up the over/unders of every game. That actually isn't the case.
The number is created using a basic formula and then tweaked accordingly. At least that's what I was told one time.
The reason why I hate the Salami - and the reason why pretty much EVERYBODY hates the Salami - is that four or five games can go exactly the way you expect them to, and then you have the one outlier game that screws up everything. (Usually when a team single-handedly scores 15 or more runs, which happens more often than you probably think.)
Some folks actually prefer a larger card because the aforementioned outlier games will have a smaller effect on a 15-game card than a five-game card, obviously.
One general rule of thumb: Never play the over on getaway days.
Also: Pay attention to how many god-awful starters are on the hill on a particular day. If there are tons of rookies, spot starters or fifth starters, it might increase the likelihood that a blowup game occurs, which could be the deciding factor if you already lean over.
EDIT: Stop putting those god damn "..'s" after every post subject. It's driving me crazy!
