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Tuesday MLB - BetATL - 04-23-2012 08:40 AM
Like the way DOP added his opening line predictions in the thread the other day. Will try to do the same when time permits. Also, will try to start getting some AL thoughts up as well. Will be brief at first and then hopefully we can break the games down more as the thread continues.
NL
Rockies @ Pirates
Pirates bats continuing to struggle, now averaging just 2.01 runs per game for the season. Nicasio hasn't been good while McDonald hasn't been great but has been a little more consistent. Rockies have won 3 straight series including taking 2 of 3 from the Brewers in Milwaukee.
Rockies -105, Total 8
Giants @ Reds
Giants will be coming off a double header Monday in New York. Latos has been bad, Cain has been good. Reds playing better ball winning 3 of last 4 on road trip.
Giants -130, Total 7.5
Giants +100, Total 7.5
Marlins @ Mets
Mets will also be coming off a double header Monday. Santana coming off shortest start of career, lasting only 1.1 innings. Johnson hasn't been his usual self but showed some improvement in his last start at home against the Cubs. Marlins just (2-6) on the road so far this year as their offense averaging just 2.88 run per game away from home.
Mets -105, Total 7
Mets +105, Total 6.5
Cardinals @ Cubs
Wainwright has been off since his return but believe he will start to turn the corner soon, still may be overvalued though. Smardzjia has been hit hard in his last two starts. These two faced off a little over a week ago in St. Louis, Cubs won 9-5. Cubs have lost 7 of 8. Cubs with worst bullpen ERA in the NL at 4.63.
Cardinals -125, Total 7
Cardinals -150
Astros @ Brewers
Houston is (2-5) on the road but 4 of those losses by 1 run. Brewers not hitting the ball great right now. Astros (3-0) in Norris' starts. Niether pitcher has been that good so far this season. Astros hitting just .235 against left handed pitching.
Brewers -140, Total 8
Brewers -145, Total 8
Phillies @ D'Backs
Will be Phillies 14th day in a row with a game. D'Backs lineup has looked a ton better with Upton back in it. Worley coming off a gem in SD, has looked solid but has faced Pirates, Mets and Padres offenses. Collmenter got hammered by hot hitting Braves in last start, hasn't looked good at all this season. Phillies struggling to score runs, will probably enjoying being in hitters park after series in SF and SD.
D'Backs -110, Total 9
D'Backs +100, Total 9.5
Nationals @ Padres
Nats playing good ball so far this season. Two good lefties going at it. Gonzalez has been really good as of late, Richard has a great start at home under his belt but has struggled on the road. Neither team hitting the ball well, Padres hitting just .217 vs lefties. Nats hitting the road for first time in a while. Padres with best bullpen ERA in NL.
Nationals -115, Total 6
Nationals -120, Total 6
Braves @ Dodgers
Braves playing good ball as are Dodgers. Doggers hitting .262 against left handed pitching with some power. Minor has looked good for Braves after rough first start. Harrang hasn't been bad but hasn't been great. Braves hitting the ball well right now.
Dodgers -110, Total 7.5
Dodgers -105, Total 7.5
AL
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Alvarez with rough start last time out, this will be his first road start. Hunter also with a rough start last time out. Blue Jays (4-1) on the road this season. Jays coming off a sweep of the Royals in KC, Baltimore coming home for first time in a while. Blue Jay bats are hot. Orioles bullpen has been used heavily lately.
Blue Jays -110, Total 9
Blue Jays -120, Total 9
Royals @ Indians
Royals on 10 game losing streak, lost 9 in a row at home. Cleveland playing good ball as of late. Lowe's best start was at home this season. Royals' Sanchez has struggled a bit but Indians hit just .221 against lefties.
Indians -125, Total 8.5
Indians -135, Total 8.5
Mariners @ Tigers
Vargas has been pretty solid all season. Detroit will be glad to see Texas head outta town and the Mariners roll in. Tigers hitting .255 against lefties. Scherzer had success against Seattle last season, has looked OK so far this season. Mariners still struggling to find production at the plate.
Tigers -165, Total 8.5
Tigers -185, Total 8.5
Angels @ Rays
Rays (5-1) at home. Offense has been hot. Price has been a little off so far this season. Angels hitting .254 vs lefties. Santana hasn't been sharp either.
Rays -130, Total 7.5
Rays -135, Total 8
Yankees @ Rangers
Darvish looks like he's getting it together. Kuroda has gone bad start, good start, bad start. Coming off a rough outing against the Twins. Two really good offenses here that are both hitting the ball well.
Rangers -130, Total 9.5
Rangers -130, Total 10
Red Sox @ Twins
Red Sox struggling having lost 5 straight, will probably enjoy getting out on the road. Beckett has looked solid after his first start of the season and has faced some good offenses to this point. Blackburn has also faced some good offenses and has faired ok. Red Sox hitting .284 against right handed pitching.
Red Sox -125, Total 8.5
Red Sox -165, Total 8.5
White Sox @ A's
White Sox coming off a sweep of Mariners in Seattle. A's starter Milone has looked good this season. White Sox hitting just .194 against left handed pitching. Floyd has looked good and bad this season but has faced good offenses. Coco Crisp should be back for the A's.
A's -105, Total 7
A's +100, Total 7
RE: Tuesday MLB - BetATL - 04-23-2012 02:01 PM
Updated the OP with the opening numbers in red.
Was off on the Giants, Cardinals, Red Sox and Tigers.
Tigers line wasn't too bad as high favorites can sometimes be tough to predict where exactly they'll land.
Surprised on the rest:
Cain has been one of the best pitchers in the bigs this season and believe he is still undervalued. If Lincecum was having his usual type of year I think you see a higher number here, Cain is throwing like Lincecum has in the past. This could also be a factor of the Giants playing a doubleheader in NY Monday.
Guess books still have a high opinion of Wainwright as he's getting an ace like number here. I was high on him too coming into the season but it's obvious he still doesn't have his best stuff yet. I believe he is going to turn the corner soon but think this number is too high. Both sides are due for a correction towards the mean and the Cubs won this matchup just a few days ago and our now at home.
Guess the books still like the Red Sox. I know Beckett is a lot better than Blackburn, but still... +160?
RE: Tuesday MLB - DOP - 04-23-2012 02:23 PM
some very good analysis and close opening numbers.. i think BTB bookmakers would make more than BetOnline!
RE: Tuesday MLB - BetATL - 04-23-2012 10:19 PM
Going to start venturing into the AL along with the usual NL plays and see how it goes.
Went with Royals +125, Twins +155, Cubs +140 and Giants +100 at the open.
All 4 have moved away from the played on teams so have to be happy with the line value again. Just hoping the results will follow.
RE: Tuesday MLB - gynecologist - 04-24-2012 02:41 AM
Baltimore .227 ba, .276 obp last 7 games.. TOR hot bats, top 5 obp in mlb last 7 days.. Hunter gives up HRs, Tor hits HRs. I like TOR
Minny hasnt seen much of Beckett, Boston has hit Blackburn hard. I think Boston builds off Monday win.. Twins suck, I like Boston -1 a lot.
RE: Tuesday MLB - ChiefZilla - 04-24-2012 07:59 AM
(04-23-2012 10:19 PM)BetATL Wrote: Went with Royals +125
RE: Tuesday MLB - EddieD - 04-24-2012 12:10 PM
Thanks for the daily write ups BetATL. Very helpful. Gotta keep going against KC. Bin riding that since loss # 6 and will ride it til they win a game. Its better than trying to guess which game they will finally win. BTB had a write up about riding streaks and it makes great sense (and $$$).
TB/LA over 8 Both offenses have great numbers against tonights starters so I'm giving this one a shot.
Toronto is 27-9 vs Baltimore in 2 years prior to this year. Baltimore has started well but I will be on the Jays in the season series again this year. Balt has started 2-1. Blue Jays
As a joke I'm going with Jamie Moyers experience over the Pirates today. You'll be laughing to when it wins.....
RE: Tuesday MLB - JetsMetsRangers - 04-24-2012 02:26 PM
Do you guys ever make series bets?
RE: Tuesday MLB - SkyBlues42 - 04-24-2012 02:55 PM
(04-24-2012 02:26 PM)JetsMetsRangers Wrote: Do you guys ever make series bets?
I actually haven't. But I'd be interested in knowing how you approach it, if you do.
Going into a series, if you like the underdog.. I would assume that you might get better value playing each game on the ML instead of paying the series price.
Might not always work out that way, but could be useful information to know before taking the Mariners (for example) in a three-game series against Detroit.
RE: Tuesday MLB - JayPrimetown - 04-24-2012 03:01 PM
On a bunch of games today...
Agreed with ATL... Love Matt Cain here. He's been hot. Ride the train. I also like Atlanta to continue their run of form.
Toronto bats vs Baltimore bats... big advantage to Toronto.
Even fancy Moyer getting another win tonight over the offensively challenged Pirates.
RE: Tuesday MLB - iKnowNothing - 04-24-2012 03:21 PM
(04-24-2012 02:55 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:(04-24-2012 02:26 PM)JetsMetsRangers Wrote: Do you guys ever make series bets?
I actually haven't. But I'd be interested in knowing how you approach it, if you do.
Going into a series, if you like the underdog.. I would assume that you might get better value playing each game on the ML instead of paying the series price.
Might not always work out that way, but could be useful information to know before taking the Mariners (for example) in a three-game series against Detroit.
I haven't bet on a series before but I would only bet favorites. I'm working under the same assumption here that if you like the underdog, then betting them on the ML for all 3 games would be better or close to the same profit. I'm going to monitor this and place my first series bet on the Nationals vs Padres. Nats are hot and I like them to win the first 2 with Gio and Zimmerman. I feel like the worst that could happen is a split of the first two and then you have the possibility of betting on SD if you get scared because they'd probably be dogs in the last matchup.
I also like the Giants tonight. Only -105 with Cain on the mound is a good price for me to take.
The Giants are also notorious at not giving Cain run support and Latos hates the Giants from his Padres days. He has looked bad this season but he has good career numbers against them and the Giants are coming off a doubleheader+travel day. Signs are pointing to the under. I'm feeling extra risky today so I'll take the under 6.5 +145 and hope for a 3-2 type of day
RE: Tuesday MLB - Wiseguy - 04-24-2012 03:51 PM
I made two play's today.
Apr 24 10:52 AM
by: INTERNET 28941312
MLB
Apr 24 10:05 PM
STRAIGHT BET
[963] WAS NATIONALS -121
( G. GONZALEZ -L / C. RICHARD -L )
2,420/2000
Apr 24 10:52 AM
by: INTERNET 28941313
MLB
Apr 24 07:05 PM
STRAIGHT BET
[971] TOR BLUE JAYS -116
( H. ALVAREZ -R / TO. HUNTER -R )
2,320/2000
RE: Tuesday MLB - JetsMetsRangers - 04-24-2012 03:59 PM
Got a lot of the same bets as you folks.
TOR ML
SF ML
LAA/TB OVER
OAK/CHW UNDER (hit this last night, like it again today)