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Saturday MLB - BetATL - 04-20-2012 08:53 AM
Anything you're looking for at the open later today?
I'm looking for the Pirates to be a decent sized dog. Cardinals are due for some offensive regression and believe we may see some this series against Pittsburgh.
Both starters have looked strong this season. However, Westbrook has an FIP of 3.47 and an xFIP of 4.16 against a real ERA of 0.64. So, he's been a bit lucky and probably will be overpriced.
Will also be looking for a short Brewers number. Brewers hit lefties better than Colorado. Brewers are a good home team, while Colorado struggles on the road.
RE: Saturday MLB - DOP - 04-20-2012 01:18 PM
Luebke love! I would definitely play U6 if that total posted without a ton of juice.
with Berkman on the DL, I think you'll see regression once MAtt Carpenter starts regressing. If anything, the Pirates staff is the only reason they're 5-7. Without them pitching well, it'd probably be 2-11. I think the Pirates win this series.
Also wondering what line Mendoza is at & I may play Sanchez. Until Washington hits, they should not be priced over -200 no matter who is starting. Houston was in every game of that series. I'm not saying Washington is -200 tomorrow but -160/-170 wouldn't surprise me
RE: Saturday MLB - DOP - 04-20-2012 01:23 PM
Here are my opening line guesses:
Tigers -125
Red Sox -115
Mariners -125
Blue Jays -120
Rays -160
Angels -190
Athletics -130
Reds -125
Nationals -160
Mets -120
Dodgers -150
Cardinals -115
Brewers -135
Braves -120
Phillies -140
RE: Saturday MLB - lindetrain - 04-20-2012 01:36 PM
Numbers up at BookMaker first today...uh oh
Hope BOL isn't backing down
RE: Saturday MLB - Beyond the Bets - 04-20-2012 01:39 PM
Is BOL backing down or is Bookmaker stepping up to the plate? I haven't been on Bookmaker in quite some time now, but I don't think their "Where the line originates" has been accurate for several years now.
RE: Saturday MLB - JSpauny - 04-20-2012 01:47 PM
Yea BOL is really shitting the bed here. Their openers are usually out at least an hour before this.
RE: Saturday MLB - ChicosBailBonds - 04-20-2012 01:49 PM
I would be on Cincy large at that number.
RE: Saturday MLB - DOP - 04-20-2012 01:50 PM
Bookmaker.com "where we charge you as much juice as possible without asking you to bend over too"
I feel good about KC at +110 on BM (which should be +115 everywhere else)
RE: Saturday MLB - JSpauny - 04-20-2012 02:04 PM
By the way, this Cardinals/Pirates series might be a lesson in regression. You have a Cardinals offense with a .337 BABIP with several players hitting out of their minds right now and a Pirates offense with a .253 BABIP with several players hitting like borderline high A lifers.
Then we have a Cardinals rotation with a 3.01 ERA but a 3.73 xFIP and a Pirates rotation with a 3.21 ERA but a 4.37 xFIP. Both rotations have BABIPs well below .300 (.250s for Stl and .270s for Pitt).
Both rotations will feature their respective 2 "most likely to regress" candidates (Westbrook and Lohse for Stl & Bedard and Correia for Pitt).
Could be a very interesting series.
But even with regression and injuries the Cards should have the better offense and better bullpen every game. Rotations are probably more or less even.
RE: Saturday MLB - BetATL - 04-20-2012 02:07 PM
Interesting that BookMaker was out first today. Waiting to see which way the juice leans on a few of the games.
Was hoping to get a little more than +110 on the Pirates.
May pull the trigger on the Padres at +140, or more depending on what it is at the BOL open. Have to like those odds with a 5.5 total and the plus team at home. Halladay is great no doubt but Luebke can hold is own.
RE: Saturday MLB - BetATL - 04-20-2012 02:56 PM
BetOnline numbers finally out.
Went with Padres +145, Rockies +120 and Pirates +115 at the open.
Still looking at Braves -125, Braves/D'backs Under 8.5 and Giants -105.
RE: Saturday MLB - mount187 - 04-20-2012 03:08 PM
BetOnline was about 2.5 hours late today. They're usually right around 1PM EST, and were closer to 3:30PM EST today. Hopefully it was just technical difficulties and not a sign of things to come.
RE: Saturday MLB - gynecologist - 04-20-2012 06:23 PM
Reds offense seems to be back on track, I've been watching them close and they were the coldest team in the league for a while and now they have cracked the ball good two games straight. I think it will continue so I'll be looking at Reds and TT over for Saturday.. Maholm is avg, BP is garbage.
I'll probably go Kershaw -1, he still hasnt won a game and I just think hes going to win one sooner than later.. Also Stros suck lol (I have a good feel for stros 4-0 on their games)
Halladay/Luebke
Think Im going to play FF under.. Dont see any of these guys giving up anything.
Yanks/Red Sox over 11 is square as hell but I can see these # being met in the 4th inning lol..
RE: Saturday MLB - gynecologist - 04-20-2012 06:25 PM
Twins +175 is nuts but I have bad luck betting games that involve Shields.
Angels have no business being 2-1 faves no matter who is pitching.
RE: Saturday MLB - iKnowNothing - 04-20-2012 11:30 PM
I like the way the Giants are playing now. Finding ways to win. I'll have to look at the numbers but -105 seems enticing
RE: Saturday MLB - gynecologist - 04-20-2012 11:46 PM
giants bats are doing better than most realize..
RE: Saturday MLB - vegasobie - 04-21-2012 12:40 AM
i played the Yankees here in town at the Orleans for +105. as mentioned earlier, should be high scoring so throw out the starters. Yankees bullpen is light years ahead of whatever trash Boston is currently bringing in out of theirs.
RE: Saturday MLB - ChicosBailBonds - 04-21-2012 08:36 AM
Played that Yankees over again. They did their part yesterday with 5 HRs.
RE: Saturday MLB - BetATL - 04-21-2012 09:27 AM
(04-20-2012 11:30 PM)iKnowNothing Wrote: I like the way the Giants are playing now. Finding ways to win. I'll have to look at the numbers but -105 seems enticing
I also took Giants +103 at 5Dimes. Agree with you that they're playing good ball. Like their offense more than the Mets and like Vogelsong more than Pelfrey.
Was hoping to get some kind of + money and finally got it.
Warning though, me liking that play is bad news for you and you may want to hedge now.
RE: Saturday MLB - JayPrimetown - 04-21-2012 09:59 AM
Until Boston proves otherwise, they are a fade play for me. In the NL, Mets are having problems manufacturing runs. Giants have solid pitching... could sweep the weekend.
Cleveland is a play on team for me too. Could be one of those teams that goes a decent 2-3 week run here heading into May.