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+--- Thread: DOP MLB (/thread-dop-mlb)
DOP MLB - DOP - 03-28-2012 08:37 AM
My idea is simple. I bet dogs and very very short favs. I look at each game and identify the amounts of times I feel each team would win if they played 1000 times with the same exact lineup, pitchers & scenario.. If I feel a team wins 450 out of 1000 (45%), I will consider betting that team if I can get a line above +122 (55/45)
Obviously, the 45% is very subjective but I feel it gives a great guideline for what bets to consider.
I have seen people eaten up by the MLB grind.. playing -125 favorites turns into -150 favs, turns in -175 favs... The money is generally on the dog & worst case, I'm confident you won't lose your shirt this way!
Oh, and I always play everything Risking 1 unit. I dont have any system or ability to choose plays that are stronger than others in MLB so I play them all the same.
good luck this season!
RE: DOP MLB - BetATL - 03-28-2012 09:04 AM
Good luck this season
RE: DOP MLB - DOP - 03-28-2012 10:09 AM
thanks ATL.
I played Orioles +142 in spring today. RHB heavy lineup vs. Brett Cecil - who BAA is 100 pts higher against RHB so I'm not concerned that Baltimore are minor leaguers
I also like the fact that Toronto played in Tampa last night.. coming back for a day game, I think their B squad may play today too.. and their two top relievers pitched last night too.
We'll see.. I definitely think +142 is worth the play!
RE: DOP MLB - medale - 03-28-2012 10:22 AM
Good call DOP. I was highly considering the Orioles before I even saw this. The fact they you went in on them for the same reason I wanted to made it a must play for me.
RE: DOP MLB - DOP - 03-28-2012 10:31 AM
odds (and an entire B-squad) say they'll lose but even if they only won 43-44% of the time in this spot, we'd end up being rich men in the long run!
good luck medale!
AND now i see why I dont put a ton of stock in Spring.. Cecil out for Tepera and the entire Jays starting lineup is in. hmm. I've had worse bets win before!
RE: DOP MLB - DOP - 03-28-2012 11:34 AM
Took Cardinals -1 +116 today due to lineups & pitching matchup w/ props to JimmySingh.
Taking Mariners +100 tomorrow per the above!
RE: DOP MLB - DOP - 03-29-2012 09:53 AM
Pirates +105
Think McDonald is a decent pitcher and had a great outing last week. Twins going with the fringe bullpen starter today. I'd say the lineups cancel each other out.
RE: DOP MLB - DOP - 04-04-2012 08:00 PM
REGULAR SEASON:
I have realized I dont have time to post "oh i played this and this and this" so I am posting my thoughts on the next few days.
Depending on umps, I want Atlanta/NYM U7. Atlanta dead last vs. LHP last year and a fresh Atlanta bullpen should mean that NY wont score past the 6th inning.
Something intrigues me about Masterson at +110 or better.
I will look closely at any of the following matchups at + money.
Leubke over Billingsley (friday)
Morrow over Jimenez (saturday)
Bumgarner over Hudson (saturday)
Buchholz over Scherzer (sunday)
Hughes over Hellickson (sunday)
Lynn over Wolf (sunday)
RE: DOP MLB - Beyond the Bets - 04-04-2012 11:50 PM
Good luck this year. Like your stuff. Will be watching.
*Also: I thought I followed you on Twitter? Either way, I do now.
RE: DOP MLB - DOP - 04-06-2012 11:03 AM
thanks BTB.
I played these this morning. I know the lines are not longer around b/c it was 5c juice at 5Dimes but..
White Sox +175, I took a flyer. Thats a great price against Lewis
Twins +125, I think they win this game. I'd play anything above to +110 to +115 range
Mariners +135, McCarthy is very good but Vargas already shut down a team that cant hit lefties. like this price above +125 or so
Padres -1 +120. I play -1 becuase I dont like losing juice ever but I think its a steal ML under -130. A lot of people have talked about a potential breakout for Luebke and I think the Padres offense could be better if Guzman continues to rake and Maybin rounds into form.
Again, my season goals are 46-48% with an average winning price at +120 to +125 over approx. 500 (which is a guess considering I found 2-4 plays per day I like)
I'm not going to keep close records on here or twitter, you'll know if i'm any good or not and I can always provide a running count upon request!
RE: DOP MLB - DOP - 04-07-2012 11:40 AM
1-3 here. Bummer. But thats gonna happen.
I played Marlins +141. Every year is always the year Nolasco is supposed to breakout but I'm skeptical that Latos should be lined at this price considering his fly-ball tendencies in Great American Ballpark. If Nolasco does anything well, it should be limiting walks and keeping inevitable HRs to solos only.
I played Giants +115. Bumgarner is a complete 180 look from Lincecum while Hudson is basically Kennedy 2.0. Regardless, I really like Bumgarner this season.
Also, parlayed Jays/Ms +250. I will buyout my 1u risked on the parlayed in the Jays win and take a free-bet on Ms around +155 tonight. I'm not putting stock in the Japan games and Colon should get tagged by LHB, something Seattle's lineup has a lot of.
I do like U9 in Baltimore. Liriano is hit-miss but pitched well in Spring. Neither of these lineups have earned anything.