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+--- Thread: Barcelona +240 (/thread-barcelona-240)
Barcelona +240 - TheHandicaper - 03-22-2012 05:26 PM
10 days ago, La Liga was thought to be decided as Real Madrid was 10 point ahead of Barcelona. They (Barcelona) payed around +900 to win it all at the time. They tied to Malaga at home, and were out-played in the game. Barcelona won, the advantage was down to 8 (Madrid 71, Barcelona 63).
At that point, I layed out some projections on both Barcelona and Madrid's remaining schedule. I had Madrid at 97 points, and Barcelona at 96.
Then this weekend, out of nowhere, Madrid had two players sent off and ended up with a draw coming out of Villarreal. I had that game with Madrid winning, though flaged as one that could be trouble.
At this point, the advantage is down to 6. They play each other @Barcelona during this final stretch, I have Barcelona winning that one. They will be favored for sure, somewhere in the -125 range. So that means the advantage is really only 3.
Madrid has a much much tougher schedule remaining than Barcelona: They get Valencia and Sevilla at home, and have to travel to Bilbao (playing great soccer) and Atlético in the Madrid derby.
Barcelona meanwhile, only has 2 games I could see them having some trouble in, but both are at home: They get Bilbao two games from now, and Espanyol one leg from the final one.
Madrid is starting to fall apart, and I've seen this movie before. They start blaming refs for their losses, Ronaldo tries to do too much, Mourinho starts with the offensive press conferences.
For all the reason stated above, I really think Barcelona +240 to win it all has tremendous value. Barcelona's injuries scare me a bit, but not that much to tell the truth. Messi is in the best shape of his career IMO. Heck, he scored 5 goals on a game a couple of weeks ago.
RE: Barcelona +240 - SkyBlues42 - 03-22-2012 05:37 PM
Real Madrid probably should have beaten Villarreal even with two players getting sent off. They led late, and outplayed them. Must have been a very frustrating game to watch if you had money on Madrid.
I wouldn't be very worried about Barcelona's injuries, either. The one thing that would concern me, is the fact that two player DID get sent off and they ended with draw. You'd think that would be a "wake up" call to Real Madrid. They need to be smarter, and I think they will be down the stretch.
Not really sure where I stand on the +240 is great value.. since I'm not convinced they get it done. But with the way Messi has been playing (exceeding expectations, as crazy as that might sound, it's true) I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it play out like you mentioned.