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+--- Thread: MLB Division Previews (/thread-mlb-division-previews)
MLB Division Previews - BetATL - 02-29-2012 01:51 PM
Betting related previews/commentary for each division, opinions welcomed. Will add more content under betting notes as I come across info worth posting. As you can tell I'm excited for baseball season but also using this as a database for continued personal use, figured I'd might as well share if I was going to draft it.
NL East
Atlanta Braves
Odds
Projected Win Total: 87
Win NL East: +1000
Win NL: +1000
Rewind
2011: (89-73) -3.2 Units
Totals: 74 Overs, 78 Unders
Key Additions
None
Key Losses
SP-Derek Lowe
Betting Notes
The Braves had the best bullpen in the MLB in terms of ERA last season and have all of the key components back for this season, plus some added depth.
The Braves struggled against left handed pitching last season batting just .228 against Southpaws as a team. Despite winning 89 games last season, the Braves went just (24-23) against left handed starters. They return pretty much the same lineup for 2012.
Miami Marlins
Odds
Projected Win Total: 84.5
Win NL East:+1000
Win NL: +700
Rewind
2011: (72-90), -14.3 Units
Totals: 77 Overs, 76 Unders
Key Additions
MNGR-Ozzie Gullen
CL-Heath Bell
SS-Jose Reyes
SP-Mark Beuhrle
Key Losses
SP-Javier Vasquez
Betting Notes
The Marlins should have some renewed optimism by playing in their new stadium. Last season the Marlins were (31-47) for -21.5 Units at home and played in front of very sparse crowds.
The Marlins will have a lot of new working parts early on in the season; new park, new manager, new key players. Keep an eye on how all of this unfolds early on.
New York Mets
Odds
Projected Win Total: 70.5
Win NL East: +5000
Win NL: +5000
Rewind
2011: (77-85) -0.6 Units
Totals: 92 Overs, 64 Unders
Key Additions
SP-Johan Santan (injury)
OF-Andres Torres
CL-Frank Francisco
Key Losses
SS-Jose Reyes
Betting Notes
Mets had more Overs than any other team in the MLB last season despite playing in a large home ballpark. The fences at Citi Field were moved in a bit during the off-season so keep an eye on how that plays.
The Mets hit well on the road last season averaging 4.8 runs per game away from Citi Field and recorded 49 Overs against just 29 Unders.
The Mets were 3rd in the MLB last season at drawing walks and 6th in baseball in OBP. This team can manufacture runs but that may change without Reyes causing havoc at the top of the lineup.
The Mets had a terrible bullpen last season posting a 4.33 team bullpen ERA, which was 2nd last in the NL. This year they add Francisco and RP Joe Rauch. Both have had success in the Majors and could help a Mets bullpen in a big way if they perform well.
Philadelphia Phillies
Odds
Projected Win Total: 93.5
Win NL East: -800 (favorite)
Win NL: +175 (favorite)
Rewind
2011: (104-63) +9.1 Units
Totals: 78 Overs, 80 Unders
Key Additions
RP-Jonathan Papelbon
Key Losses
SP-Roy Oswalt
RP-Brad Lidge
RP-Ryan Madsen
Betting Notes
Ryan Howard will miss at least the first month of the season from his achilles tendon tear. The Phillies were just 18th in the MLB in home runs last season and will need to find a way to manufacture runs early on in the season.
Washington Nationals
Odds
Projected Win Total: 84.5
Win NL East: +1200
Win NL: +1200
Rewind
2011: (80-81), +10.2 Units
Totals: 75 Overs, 80 Unders
Key Additions
RP-Brad Lidge
SP-Gio Gonzalez
SP-Edwin Jackson
SP-Stephen Strasburg (injury)
Key Losses
SP-Livan Hernandez
Betting Notes
Nationals had the 5th best bullpen in the MLB in terms of ERA and had the 4th most IP by relievers. This year they add Brad Lidge for a setup role. Should be a big time strength for the Nats this season so keep in mind for 5 inning lines if going against them.
Washington's offense led MLB in SO's last season.
RE: MLB Division Previews - JSpauny - 02-29-2012 02:13 PM
I do agree that the Braves bullpen should be helped with Vizcaino and Teheran potentially up but there is a chance for a massive, massive regression from their setup guys and closer.
Venters: 1.84 ERA; 2.78 FIP; 2.88 xFIP; .242 BABIP (20 pts< career); 83 IPs (tied career high in MLB)
O'Flaherty: 0.98 ERA; 2.54 FIP; 3.05 xFIP; .274 BABIP (20 pts< career); 73 IPs (career high)
Kimbrel: 2.10 ERA; 1.52 FIP; 1.94 xFIP; .315 BABIP; 77 IPs (career high)
Now Kimbrel's numbers show he actually got a little unlucky last year, but he threw 22 more IPs then he's ever thrown in his career at any level. That's a major increase in workload for a guy that throws hard. It's hard to expect him to be as dominant coming off a taxing season like that.
Venters and O'Flaherty are due for pretty major declines. Now Venters could put up similar numbers (he fought off the regression last year), but to get "lucky" 3 years in a row would be pretty interesting. O'Flaherty will regress big time. Now he did stop throwing his cutter and threw the sinker a lot more. That helped bring his ERA down (groundballs=outs), but he gained no velocity he just threw it more. Eventually, batters catch onto things like that.
I think it's one of the best bullpens still, but its fairly unlikely they put up numbers like last year. Factor in the heavy workload, and breakdowns could happen early and often for the back of that bullpen. What was a strength could become a big weakness quickly.
RE: MLB Division Previews - Beyond the Bets - 03-01-2012 10:41 AM
Wasn't everyone going to take a team and write an extensive preview? Do we have all of them filled yet?
RE: MLB Division Previews - BetATL - 03-01-2012 11:52 AM
(03-01-2012 10:41 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote: Wasn't everyone going to take a team and write an extensive preview? Do we have all of them filled yet?
Still have the Team Preview thread going, although only 10 teams have been "taken" so not as much participation as I hoped. Hopefully, as we get closer to the start of the season and spring training games get going we'll have a few more people jump in.
As far as this thread goes, I draft this every year as a sort of mini-database for betting notes and pre-season odds that I can look back on, especially early on in the season. Figured I'd might as well share it as I go along.
RE: MLB Division Previews - JSpauny - 03-01-2012 12:29 PM
I was going to post this in that thread, but I'm too lazy to go find it so I'll mention it here.
I was planning on taking the remainder of the NLC teams besides Cincy since mount has that. I was planning on waiting a little while since I am not as familiar with the teams and cannot predict 25 mans with as much confidence.
RE: MLB Division Previews - BetATL - 03-02-2012 11:19 AM
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
Odds
Projected Win Total: 74.5
Win NL Central: +1600
Win NL: +2000
Rewind
2011: (71-91) -15.3 Units
Totals: 79 Overs, 76 Unders
Key Additions
3B-Ian Stewart
SP-Paul Maholm
SP-Travis Wood
Key Losses
3B-Aramis Ramirez
RF-Koske Fukudome
1B-Carlos Pena
Betting Notes
Cincinnati Reds
Odds
Projected Win Total: 86.5
Win NL Central: +125 (favorite)
Win NL: +900
Rewind
2011: (79-83), -15.1 Units
Totals: 83 Overs, 69 Unders
Key Additions
SP-Mat Latos
CL-Ryan Madson
Key Losses
SP-Edison Volquez
CL-Francisco Cordero
C-Ramon Hernandez
Betting Notes
Houston Astros
Odds
Projected Win Total: 64
Win NL Central: +10000
Win NL: +10000
Rewind
2011: (56-106) -34.0 Units
Totals: 87 Overs, 71 Unders
Key Additions
SS-Jed Lowrie
OF-Jack Cust
C-Jason Castro (injury)
Key Losses
SS-Clint Barmes
CL-Mark Melancon
Betting Notes
Milwaukee Brewers
Odds
Projected Win Total: 93.5
Win NL Central: +250
Win NL: +1400
Rewind
2011: (101-72) +19.5 Units
Totals: 83 Overs, 80 Unders
Key Additions
3B-Aramis Ramirez
SS-Alex Gonzalez
1B-Mat Gamel (Minors)
RP-Jose Veras
Key Losses
1B-Prince Fielder
3B-Casey McGehee
RP-Takashi Saito
RP-Latroy Hawkins
Betting Notes
Pittsburgh Pirates
Odds
Projected Win Total: 73
Win NL Central: +1800
Win NL: +3000
Rewind
2011: (72-90), -1.50 Units
Totals: 79 Overs, 76 Unders
Key Additions
SP-Erik Bedard
SP-A.J. Burnett
SS-Clint Barmes
1B-Casey McGehee
C-Rod Barajas
Key Losses
C-Ryan Doumit
SP-Paul Maholm
Betting Notes
St. Louis Cardinals
Odds
Projected Win Total: 83.5
Win NL Central: +225
Win NL: +1200
Rewind
2011: (101-79) +7.2 Units
Totals: 96 Overs, 78 Unders
Key Addtions
OF-Carlos Beltran
SP-Adam Wainwright (injury)
RP-J.C. Romero
Key Losses
1B-Albert Pujols
SS-Ryan Theriot
Betting Notes
RE: MLB Division Previews - SkyBlues42 - 03-03-2012 02:47 PM
(03-01-2012 11:52 AM)BetATL Wrote: Still have the Team Preview thread going, although only 10 teams have been "taken" so not as much participation as I hoped. Hopefully, as we get closer to the start of the season and spring training games get going we'll have a few more people jump in.
As far as this thread goes, I draft this every year as a sort of mini-database for betting notes and pre-season odds that I can look back on, especially early on in the season. Figured I'd might as well share it as I go along.
I think most people are waiting for a few spring training games to write a preview. Get as much info as possible, see how some players look after the offseason.
I'm sure a bunch will be coming in soon enough.
RE: MLB Division Previews - Beyond the Bets - 03-04-2012 12:20 PM
BTB previews begin tomorrow.
RE: MLB Division Previews - JSpauny - 03-04-2012 01:14 PM
(03-04-2012 12:20 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote: BTB previews begin tomorrow.
Are you prepared for the hate that's coming from me, louie and a few others when you release your Cardinals at 18 rank? Can't you at least bump them to 15. I can't fault 15.
RE: MLB Division Previews - BetATL - 03-05-2012 11:13 AM
Looking forward to the BTB Previews!
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds
Projected Win Total: 86
Win NL West: +170
Win NL: +1200
Rewind
2011: (96-71) +26.0 Units
Totals: 77 Overs, 83 Unders
Key Additions
OF-Jason Kubel
SP-Trevor Cahill
RP-Takashi Saito
Key Losses
None
Betting Notes
Colorado Rockies
Odds
Projected Win Total: 80.5
Win NL West: +750
Win NL: +1800
Rewind
2011: (73-89), -29.5 Units
Totals: 84 Overs, 73 Unders
Key Additions
OF-Michael Cuddyer
SP-Jeremy Guthrie
3B-Casey Blake
2B-Marco Scuttaro
Key Losses
CL-Huston Street
3B-Ian Stewart
OF-Seth Smith
Betting Notes
Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds
Projected Win Total: 81
Win NL West: +350
Win NL: +1500
Rewind
2011: (82-79) +0.80 Units
Totals: 79 Overs, 70 Unders
Key Additions
SP-Chris Capuano
SP-Aaron Harrang
2B-Mark Ellis
Key Losses
C-Rod Barajas
CL-Jonathan Broxton
RP-Hong-Chih Kuo
3B-Casey Blake
SP-Jon Garland
SP-Hiroki Kuroda
Betting Notes
San Diego Padres
Odds
Projected Win Total: 73.5
Win NL West: +2500
Win NL: +5000
Rewind
2011: (71-91) +9.1 Units
Totals: 81 Overs, 74 Unders
Key Additions
RP-Andrew Cashner
OF-Carlos Quentin
CL-Huston Street
SP-Edison Volquez
1B-Yonder Alonso
Key Losses
SP-Aaron Harrang
SP-Mat Latos
SP-Wade LeBlanc
CL-Heath Bell
RP-Chad Qualls
1B-Anthony Rizzo
Betting Notes
San Francisco Giants
Odds
Projected Win Total: 87.5
Win NL West: +130 (favorite)
Win NL: +800
Rewind
2011: (86-76), -5.4 Units
Totals: 70 Overs, 85 Unders
Key Additions
OF-Melky Cabrera
OF-Angel Pagan
Key Losses
OF-Carlos Beltran
OF-Andres Torres
SP-Jonathan Sanchez
OF-Cody Ross
Betting Notes
RE: MLB Division Previews - Beyond the Bets - 03-05-2012 01:58 PM
My team by team division previews are possibly canceled. Might take a division approach as we get closer to Opening Day. Outside of the true diehards, not seeing much interest in baseball just yet.
RE: MLB Division Previews - JSpauny - 03-05-2012 02:07 PM
(03-05-2012 01:58 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote: My team by team division previews are possibly canceled. Might take a division approach as we get closer to Opening Day. Outside of the true diehards, not seeing much interest in baseball just yet.
So can you tell me who you have 15th, 16th and 17th ahead of the Cards now?
RE: MLB Division Previews - BetATL - 03-06-2012 11:10 AM
AL East
Baltimore Orioles
Odds
Projected Win Total: 69.5
Win AL East: +7500
Win AL: +7500
Rewind
2011: (69-93) -5.4 Units
Totals: 87 Overs, 68 Unders
Key Additions
DH-Wilson Betemit
RP-Matt Lindstrom
SP-Jason Hammel
SP-Wei-Yin Chen
Key Losses
SP-Jeremy Guthrie
OF-Luke Scott
Betting Notes
Boston Red Sox
Odds
Projected Win Total: 89.5
Win AL East: +325
Win AL: +550
Rewind
2011: (90-72) -13.2 Units
Totals: 81 Overs, 72 Unders
Key Additions
OF-Cody Ross
CL-Andrew Bailey
RP-Mark Melancon
Key Losses
CL-Jonathan Papelbon
SS-Marco Scutaro
SS-Jed Lowrie
Betting Notes
New York Yankees
Odds
Projected Win Total: 93.5
Win AL East: -190 (favorite)
Win AL: +300 (favorite)
Rewind
2011: (99-68) +7.0 Units
Totals: 74 Overs, 79 Unders
Key Additions
SP-Hiroki Kuroda
SP-Michael Pineda
Key Losses
SP-Bartolo Colon
C-Jorge Posada
Betting Notes
Tampa Bay Rays
Odds
Projected Win Total: 87
Win AL East: +550
Win AL: +1000
Rewind
2011: (92-74) +6.1 Units
Totals: 67 Overs, 90 Unders
Key Additions
DH-Luke Scott
1B-Carlos Pena
C-Jose Molina
Key Losses
DH-Johnny Damon
SP-Andy Sonnastine
Betting Notes
Toronto Blue Jays
Odds
Projected Win Total: 80
Win AL East: +800
Win AL: +1600
Rewind
2011: (81-81) +2.0 Units
Totals: 83 Overs, 73 Unders
Key Additions
CL-Sergio Santos
RP-Francisco Cordero
RP-Darren Oliver
Key Losses
CL-Frank Francisco
RP-Jon Rauch
Betting Notes
RE: MLB Division Previews - RyanParrill - 03-06-2012 04:12 PM
(03-05-2012 01:58 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote: My team by team division previews are possibly canceled. Might take a division approach as we get closer to Opening Day. Outside of the true diehards, not seeing much interest in baseball just yet.
RE: MLB Division Previews - BetATL - 03-07-2012 10:50 AM
AL Central
Chicago White Sox
Odds
Projected Win Total: 74.5
Win AL Central: +1800
Win AL: +4500
Rewind
2011: (79-83) -11.2 Units
Totals: 71 Overs, 80 Unders
Key Additions
MNGR-Robin Ventura
Key Losses
MNGR-Ozzie Guillen
OF-Carlos Quentin
OF-Juan Pierre
SP-Mark Beuhrle
Betting Notes
Cleveland Indians
Odds
Projected Win Total: 78.5
Win AL Central: +1200
Win AL: +3000
Rewind
2011: (80-82) +1.2 Units
Totals: 84 Overs, 70 Unders
Key Additions
1B-Casey Kotchman
SP-Derek Lowe
SP-Kevin Slowey
Key Losses
None
Betting Notes
Detroit Tigers
Odds
Projected Win Total: 92.5
Win AL Central: -1200 (favorite)
Win AL: +400
Rewind
2011: (100-73) +18.3 Units
Totals: 91 Overs, 69 Unders
Key Additions
1B-Prince Fielder
Key Losses
OF-Magglio Ordonez
IF-Carlos Guillen
SP-Brad Penny
Betting Notes
Kansas City Royals
Odds
Projected Win Total: 80
Win AL Central: +1800
Win AL: +5000
Rewind
2011: (71-91) -6.4 Units
Totals: 77 Overs, 74 Unders
Key Additions
SP-Jonathan Sanchez
RP-Jonathan Broxton
Key Losses
OF-Melky Cabrera
Betting Notes
Minnesota Twins
Odds
Projected Win Total: 73.5
Win AL Central: +1800
Win AL: +4500
Rewind
2011: (63-99) -24.9 Units
Totals: 78 Overs, 75 Unders
Key Additions
OF-Josh Willingham
SS-Jamey Carrol
Key Losses
OF-Michael Cuddyer
OF-Jason Kubel
RP-Joe Nathan
Betting Notes
RE: MLB Division Previews - BetATL - 03-12-2012 10:19 AM
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Odds
Projected Win Total: 92.5
Win AL West: +450
Win AL: -115
Rewind
2011: (86-76) +1.2 Units
Totals: 71 Overs, 78 Unders
Key Additions
1B-Albert Pujols
SP-C.J. Wilson
RP-LaTroy Hawkins
C-Chris Ianetta
DH-Kendry Morales (injury)
Key Losses
None
Betting Notes
Oakland A's
Odds
Projected Win Total: 71
Win AL West: +1000
Win AL: +2500
Rewind
2011: (74-88) -16.3 Units
Totals: 78 Overs, 71 Unders
Key Additions
OF-Seth Smith
OF-Yoenis Cespedes
DH-Chris Carter (minors)
SP-Bartolo Colon
Key Losses
SP-Trevor Cahill
SP-Gio Gonzalez
RP-Andrew Bailey
OF-Josh Willingham
DH-Hideki Matsui
Betting Notes
Seattle Mariners
Odds
Projected Win Total: 72
Win AL West: +7500
Win AL: +2500
Rewind
2011: (67-95) -22.8 Units
Totals: 70 Overs, 83 Unders
Key Additions
C-Jesus Montero
SP-Hisashi Iwakuma
RP-Hong-Chi Kuo
Key Losses
SP-Michael Pineda
Betting Notes
Texas Rangers
Odds
Projected Win Total: 91.5
Win AL West: -120 (favorite)
Win AL: +450
Rewind
2011: (106-73) +12.8 Units
Totals: 94 Overs, 77 Unders
Key Additions
Yu Darvish (Japan)
RP-Joe Nathan
Key Losses
SP-C.J. Wilson
RP-Darren Oliver
Betting Notes
RE: MLB Division Previews - Beyond the Bets - 03-13-2012 12:28 AM
