What's in a line? - Printable Version
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What's in a line? - oilcountry99 - 02-07-2012 08:09 PM
Looking to do more research in lines and line movement. What's the relationship between opening and closing? All i've read is that if you can beat the closing line consistantly you will be profitable. What does the movement mean throughout the day? How can it give an edge?
Can anyone point me in the direction of a reliable source of information on this topic?
This forum is loaded with talent and I'm hoping to tap into your knowledge to continue to grow as a bettor.
RE: What's in a line? - JSpauny - 02-07-2012 10:40 PM
I believe there is a thread in the So_money section discussing this topic but I could be wrong, I'd start there, but here's my 2 cents.
As far as I've been told, line movement is based on the market. Now the market is affected by a ton of factors: injuries, trends, amount of $ bet on one particular side, the bookmakers opinion of the game, etc..
I'm not positive, but pretty sure the majority of line movements are created by too many bets on one side. Bookmakers attempt to limit risk by trying to get an even split on games so they don't take huge hits. However, that's not exactly black and white. Sometimes, if they feel they have a great read/inside info they will hold on a number even as the bets pile up on one side.
There are just a ton of factors that go into line movement.
In the NFL, the way I get the best number is by creating my own power ratings before lines are released. Then when the lines are released, I immediately know if the line is pretty good or crazy. Sometimes I'm wrong on the line being off, but the majority of the time the line moves in my favor.
I find being prepared pre line release to be one of the best tools to get the best number possible.
RE: What's in a line? - The Peoples Champ - 02-07-2012 11:00 PM
JS has a great start to this thread, and I will add-on to what he has.
Line movement is indeed keyed by the amount, or volume, of money being place on a side or total. Thinking of it in a logic way, if you risked losing 5,000 dollars with Side A, and only 2,500 dollars with Side B, wouldn't you want to do something to decrease the risk on Side A, or in a sense, get them as close to even as possible? Oddsmakers adjust odds to better even out the money, and they profit through the juice you lay. In sports with key numbers, such as the NFL, the oddsmaker will carefully monitor money around key numbers so that they don't expose themselves to middles or huge losses on one side. I hope that makes sense.
Throughout the day, odds can move for a variety of reasons, as JS mentioned. One aspect he didn't hit on is headfakes by those looking for a better number. The daily movement doesn't apply to all sports, specifically the NFL, but for NBA and NCAAB, and I suppose baseball lines too, it does. For example, I have the game between Team A and Team B capped at a total of 178, and the opening total is 179. Clearly, the difference on the opening number is not high enough to warrant an under play, but I know if I can move that line up three or four points, the play is a go. It is my understanding that if a syndicate or tout service finds itself in the above situation, it will tell it's customers to bet, say, 100 dollars on the over, to move it up to a better number, and than once it hits the desired number, bet 200 or whatever increased amount on the under now that they have the number they deem desirable for a play on the under. Does that make sense?
JS is correct in saying having your numbers beforehand is absolutely vital, as even missing a point or two can make a huge difference. I like to have my NBA numbers ready to go by 10 p.m. EST so I can immediately check out the overnight lines, and then watch where they go in the morning. Some will hit the overnights right away, but I'm not confident enough in my numbers yet to do so. However, like I said, if you have the total 190, for example, and the overnight is 193, but you wake up and others have moved the line to, say, 191, you've already missed the value you saw the night before, therefore, in most cases, making it a no play, for me anyways.
Finally, there is no opening and close relationship, other than the fact the market will try and take advantage of the opening number so that they are not stuck with an undesirable number when it closes. Does this mean all closing numbers are undesirable? Absolutely not. But are they in most case? Pretty much.
Feel free to inquire about any of the above, as I'm drained and sorta rambling, or ask any new questions the above or JS bring about.