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+--- Thread: Aussie Open Women's Semifinals (/thread-aussie-open-women-s-semifinals)
Aussie Open Women's Semifinals - JayPrimetown - 01-25-2012 10:49 AM
Wanted to get this thread started as it's a big day in tennis with 2 very competitive semifinals at the year's first major.
First matchup is Azarenka vs Clijsters and the oddsmakers have this one as a pick'em. Clijsters has a 4-2 career record vs Azarenka. They faced off twice in 2011 (both on hard courts) and they split those matches. Clijsters did win their matchup in Sydney (pre Aussie Open tournament). They have never competed against each other in a major tournament before.
Clijsters breezed through the first 3 rounds before having all sorts of problems with China's Li Na. Clijsters survived 4 match points in that match and moved on to defeat World #1 Caroline Wozniacki in straight sets. Clijsters dominated set 1, but then seemed fatigued in set 2, but was able to knock of Wozniacki in the tiebreak.
Azarenka had no issues through the first 4 rounds having not faced a single top 40 player. In the quarters, she faced the #8 seed Radawanska. She dropped the first set in the tiebreak and then Radawanska just seemed to fall apart (perhaps a small injury) and Azarenka won 12 of the next 14 games to win the match 2 sets to 1 set.
There are some real question marks in this match... Will Clijsters ankle give her problems again? Can Azarenka break the hump this major?
Interesting matchup... my lean is on Azarenka as I think Clijsters is a bit fatigued. Don't think she can keep it going.
Second matchup:
Maria Sharapova vs Petra Kvitova - Great matchup between two of the top 5 players in the world. Kvitova holds a 2-1 career matchup edge over Sharapova. Kvitova won both meetings in 2011 including their only ever meeting in a major (the Wimbledon Final). On her way to the semifinal, Sharapova only faced 1 top 20 player: Sabine Lisicki who she defeated in 3 sets. Kvitova did not have to face a top 20 player on her way to the semifinals... and lost just 1 set during this tournament. Kvitova has lost only 1 match since October 3, 2011... that was to Na Li at the event in Sydney prior to the Australian Open.
The one thing that stands out to me is Kvitova's poor form on hard courts where she is just 13-10 in the last year. In her last 50 matches on the hard court surface, she is 28-22, just a 56% winning percentage on this surface. In her career, she has made it to only 1 final of a hard court tournament. Meanwhile, Maria Sharapova has a 25-6 record on hard courts in the last year (81% win percentage) and made it to two hard court finals in 2011 (winning one, while losing the other to Azarenka).
Sharapova is the play here as a +115 underdog. This is not Kvitova's preferred surface while Sharapova excels here.