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PrintThere are only 11 left.
South Carolina and West Virginia are out of the running to go unbeaten, leaving a bowl-ineligible Big Ten member, one Big 12 team, a pair of rivals from Oregon, an independent powerhouse, and a trio of teams each from the SEC and Big East.
By the end of the regular season, history tells us only one or two will remain, if any at all.
Top-ranked Alabama (73%) has by far the best chance, while Oregon already passed its Week 8 test on Thursday night and subsequently moved to 36% to pull off a 12-0 regular season.
Using our power ratings, adjusted projected point spreads and win odds, we’ve come up with a table below detailing the week-by-week chances of each team staying unblemished.
A few items of note:
- Seven of the 11 teams still have less than 10 percent odds to go unbeaten, including second-ranked Florida (9%), which has games remaining against South Carolina, Georgia and Florida State.
- Notre Dame is up to 7 percent but still has an insanely tough schedule left that includes road trips to Oklahoma (Week 9) and USC (Week 13).
- One of the quickest teams to fall should be Mississippi State (0%), which has next to no chance of knocking off Alabama on the road next week.
- There’s a decent chance that both Louisville (14%) and Rutgers (9%) will both be unblemished by the time they square off in the regular-season finale that could decide the Big East title. But the Cardinals have to get past fellow unbeaten Cincinnati (2%) next weekend first.
* * *
1. CC = Conference Championship
2. The percentage indicates the likelihood of that team being unbeaten AFTER the week at the top.
3. An asterisk indicates a bye week.
4. Futures odds were taken from sportsbook.ag.
| TEAM | BCS Rank | FUTURES | WEEK 8 | WEEK 9 | WEEK 10 | WEEK 11 | WEEK 12 | WEEK 13 | WEEK 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | +120 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 73% | 73% | 73% | CC |
| Florida | 2 | +800 | 57% | 31% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 9% | CC |
| Oregon | 3 | +350 | 100% | 100% | 54% | 51% | 46% | 36% | CC |
| Kansas St | 4 | +1200 | 43% | 30% | 22% | 13% | 8% | 8%* | 4% |
| Notre Dame | 5 | +1500 | 85% | 26% | 22% | 20% | 20% | 7% | 7%* |
| Ohio St | N/A | N/A | 95% | 67% | 67% | 67%* | 38% | 24% | CC |
| Oregon St | 8 | None | 79% | 49% | 34% | 16% | 13% | 3% | CC |
| Mississippi St | 12 | +10000 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | CC |
| Rutgers | 15 | None | 64% | 64% | 64%* | 64% | 32% | 18% | 9% |
| Louisville | 16 | +10000 | 70% | 48% | 45% | 31% | 31%* | 27% | 14% |
| Cincinnati | 21 | +50000 | 68% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 2% |
