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PrintWe’re down to a baker’s dozen.
Seven teams fell from the ranks of the unbeaten in Week 6 in college football, most notably Florida State, which was looking like a strong contender (48 percent) to make it through the entire regular season unscathed.
That leaves us with 13 teams, including all eight at the top of the latest Associated Press poll.
Of those, top-ranked Alabama (56%) now has by far the best chance, while Oregon (27%) pretty much has to get past one major hurdle (at USC in Week 10) to pull off the 12-0 regular season.
Using our power ratings, adjusted projected point spreads and win odds, we’ve come up with a table below detailing the week-by-week chances of each team staying unblemished.
Some have zero chance (looking at you, Mississippi State), while others—like a trio of Big East teams facing weaker schedules—are much more likely.
A few items of note:
- With two big wins in the past two weeks, bowl-banned Ohio State is all the way up to 29 percent to go 12-0 in Urban Meyer’s first season. The biggest tests now will come in the final two weeks, at Wisconsin and home to Michigan.
- Notre Dame is up to 6 percent but still has a ridiculously tough schedule left that includes games against Stanford, Oklahoma and USC.
- One of the quickest teams to fall should be Oregon State (1%), which is a 5.5-point underdog at BYU this weekend without starting quarterback Sean Mannion.
- The Big 12 has been whittled down to two teams, West Virginia (7%) and Kansas State (1%), who both face tricky road tests this weekend before squaring off in Week 8.
- Eight of the 11 teams remaining still have less than a 10 percent chance, including No. 3 South Carolina (8%) and No. 4 Florida (8%), who are both looking strong but have a number of tough games still left.
* * *
1. CC = Conference Championship
2. The percentage indicates the likelihood of that team being unbeaten AFTER the week at the top.
3. An asterisk indicates a bye week.
4. Futures odds were taken from sportsbook.ag.
| TEAM | AP Rank | FUTURES | WEEK 7 | WEEK 8 | WEEK 9 | WEEK 10 | WEEK 11 | WEEK 12 | WEEK 13 | WEEK 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | +140 | 100% | 95% | 95% | 58% | 56% | 56% | 56% | CC |
| Oregon | 2 | +350 | 100%* | 87% | 87% | 43% | 38% | 31% | 27% | CC |
| South Carolina | 3 | +700 | 43% | 18% | 15% | 15%* | 13% | 13% | 8% | CC |
| Florida | 4 | +800 | 75% | 43% | 23% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 8% | CC |
| West Virginia | 5 | +600 | 61% | 45% | 45%* | 37% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 7% |
| Kansas St | 6 | +1500 | 68% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 2%* | 1% |
| Notre Dame | 7 | +2000 | 70% | 60% | 20% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 6% | 6%* |
| Ohio St | 8 | N/A | 94% | 82% | 61% | 61% | 61%* | 39% | 29% | CC |
| Oregon St | 10 | None | 35% | 29% | 18% | 12% | 5% | 5% | 1% | CC |
| Louisville | 18 | +10000 | 57% | 48% | 35% | 33% | 25% | 25%* | 21% | 11% |
| Mississippi St | 19 | +30000 | 57% | 57% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | CC |
| Rutgers | 20 | None | 85% | 67% | 67% | 67%* | 67% | 34% | 19% | 9% |
| Cincinnati | 21 | +50000 | 100% | 66% | 18% | 14% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 2% |
