Mail
PrintA couple months ago, we made a few “bold” (see: boneheaded) predictions for what we thought could play out in the 2012 college football season.
The top item on that list? Urban Meyer would finish undefeated in his first season with bowl-banned Ohio State.
It was admittedly stupid and had little chance of happening, but hey, that’s what bold predictions are there for, right?
After the Buckeyes squeezed past Michigan State last weekend, though, it’s suddenly starting to look much more realistic. Last week, Ohio State had just nine percent odds of going 12-0. But after the outright victory as a 2-point underdog, those odds have boosted up to 20 percent.
Still not great, but a victory at home over Nebraska this weekend will make things very interesting going forward.
The Buckeyes are one of 20 teams left that have yet to record a loss, and using our power ratings, adjusted projected point spreads and win odds, we’ve come up with a table below detailing the week-by-week chances of each team staying unblemished.
Some have zero chance (looking at you, Texas Tech), while others—like Alabama and Florida State at about 50 percent—are much more likely.
A few items of note:
- With each passing week, it’s looking more and more like Alabama and Florida State are on a collision course for the national title game. The Crimson Tide now have a 56 percent chance of going 12-0, while the Seminoles are at 48 percent (up from 30% last week).
- Ten of the 20 teams have essentially zero chance (2% or less), including current Top 10 teams like South Carolina, Kansas State and Florida that all face next-to-impossible schedules.
- Georgia is all the way up to 20 percent in the SEC East, but those odds will skyrocket if the Bulldogs get past South Carolina—by far their biggest hurdle of the season—this weekend.
- The Big East has two teams—Louisville (12%) and Rutgers (7%)—that have at least a decent shot, but they play each other in the season finale.
- The quickest team to fall off should be Texas Tech, which faces an absolutely terrifying schedule over the next five games.
* * *
1. CC = Conference Championship
2. The percentage indicates the likelihood of that team being unbeaten AFTER the week at the top.
3. An asterisk indicates a bye week.
4. Futures odds were taken from sportsbook.ag.
| TEAM | AP Rank | FUTURES | WEEK 6 | WEEK 7 | WEEK 8 | WEEK 9 | WEEK 10 | WEEK 11 | WEEK 12 | WEEK 13 | WEEK 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | +175 | 100%* | 100% | 95% | 95% | 58% | 56% | 56% | 56% | CC |
| Oregon | 2 | +700 | 100% | 100%* | 87% | 87% | 43% | 38% | 31% | 27% | CC |
| Florida St | 3 | +400 | 87% | 87% | 83% | 83% | 83%* | 62% | 60% | 48% | CC |
| LSU | 4 | +500 | 52% | 42% | 31% | 31%* | 12% | 11% | 11% | 9% | CC |
| Georgia | 5 | +600 | 47% | 47%* | 47% | 29% | 29% | 24% | 24% | 20% | CC |
| S. Carolina | 6 | +1500 | 53% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 3%* | 2% | 2% | 1% | CC |
| Kansas St | 7 | +3000 | 100% | 77% | 19% | 14% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 2%* | 1% |
| West Virginia | 8 | +2000 | 30% | 23% | 17% | 17%* | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Notre Dame | 9 | +2500 | 83% | 53% | 45% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 3% | 3%* |
| Florida | 10 | +3000 | 48% | 38% | 24% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 1% | CC |
| Texas | 11 | +2500 | 70% | 35% | 29% | 29% | 22% | 22% | 22%* | 17% | 11% |
| Ohio St | 12 | N/A | 63% | 63% | 54% | 41% | 41% | 41%* | 27% | 20% | CC |
| Oregon St | 14 | None | 88% | 38% | 31% | 16% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 0% | CC |
| TCU | 15 | +10000 | 81% | 35% | 27% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 2%* | 0% | 0% |
| Louisville | 19 | +10000 | 100%* | 68% | 45% | 34% | 33% | 26% | 26%* | 22% | 12% |
| Mississippi St | 20 | +30000 | 77% | 42% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | CC |
| Rutgers | 22 | None | 73% | 62% | 52% | 47% | 47%* | 47% | 24% | 15% | 7% |
| Northwestern | 24 | None | 43% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 7%* | 2% | 0% | 0% | CC |
| Texas Tech | RV | None | 35% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Cincinnati | RV | +50000 | 99% | 99% | 65% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
