Mail
PrintSince we posted last week’s odds of every college football team remaining unbeaten, five teams—including Stanford last night—have fallen from the ranks of the undefeated.
Besides the Cardinal, Oklahoma, Clemson, Arizona and UCLA all lost in Week 4, leaving 23 teams that are still hoping to run the table.
Some of those have zero chance (hello, Minnesota), while others—like Alabama at 38 percent or Florida State at 30 percent—are much more likely. As conference play picks up, many of these teams will start to fall. By the end of the regular season, history suggests we’ll probably have two or fewer remaining.
Using our power ratings, adjusted projected point spreads and win odds, we’ve come up with a table below detailing the chances of each team remaining unbeaten as we go through the regular season.
Some items of note:
- Last week, Rutgers had only a 2 percent chance of running the table, but an upset victory at Arkansas boosted those odds to 9 percent. There’s a 57 percent chance the Scarlet Knights are still unblemished by the time they meet Cincinnati in Week 12.
- Twelve of the 23 teams have essentially zero chance (2% or less) of staying unbeaten through the regular season. For example, TCU has a 25 percent chance of still being perfect after Week 8, but those odds drop quickly to zero with games against West Virginia, Kansas State, Texas and Oklahoma in the back half of the schedule.
- The most likely opponents for Alabama (38%) in a national title game appear to be Florida State (30%) and Oregon (24%). Of course, that’s not including the conference championship games that both teams will have to win.
- Kansas State‘s surprising win at Oklahoma upped the Wildcats’ undefeated odds, but not by much. They went from zero percent to 1 percent.
- Urban Meyer and Ohio State have a 9 percent chance of making this ‘bold’ prediction from August come true.
- The quickest team to fall off should be Iowa State, which will be an underdog in its next seven games.
* * *
1. CC = Conference Championship
2. The percentage indicates the likelihood of that team being unbeaten AFTER the week at the top.
3. An asterisk indicates a bye week.
4. Futures odds were taken from sportsbook.ag.
| TEAM | AP Rank | FUTURES | WEEK 5 | WEEK 6 | WEEK 7 | WEEK 8 | WEEK 9 | WEEK 10 | WEEK 11 | WEEK 12 | WEEK 13 | WEEK 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | +160 | 100% | 100%* | 87% | 72% | 72% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | CC |
| Oregon | 2 | +800 | 100% | 99% | 99%* | 86% | 86% | 42% | 37% | 31% | 24% | CC |
| LSU | 3 | +400 | 100% | 66% | 55% | 44% | 44%* | 21% | 20% | 20% | 17% | CC |
| Florida St | 4 | +600 | 91% | 70% | 69% | 59% | 59% | 59%* | 41% | 40% | 30% | CC |
| Georgia | 5 | +700 | 84% | 42% | 42%* | 42% | 24% | 24% | 18% | 18% | 15% | CC |
| South Carolina | 6 | +2000 | 100% | 50% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 3%* | 2% | 2% | 1% | CC |
| Kansas St | 7 | +4000 | 100%* | 100% | 75% | 20% | 16% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 3%* | 1% |
| West Virginia | 9 | +2000 | 80% | 34% | 26% | 20% | 20%* | 15% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| Notre Dame | 10 | +2000 | 100%* | 87% | 57% | 49% | 22% | 22% | 20% | 20% | 7% | 7%* |
| Florida | 11 | +4000 | 100%* | 34% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 1% | CC |
| Texas | 12 | +3000 | 54% | 31% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 8%* | 6% | 3% |
| Ohio St | 14 | N/A | 43% | 31% | 31% | 27% | 22% | 20% | 20%* | 13% | 9% | CC |
| TCU | 15 | +10000 | 85% | 70% | 34% | 25% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1%* | 0% | 0% |
| Oregon St | 18 | None | 49% | 45% | 21% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | CC |
| Louisville | 19 | +10000 | 77% | 77%* | 51% | 38% | 28% | 28% | 22% | 22%* | 18% | 8% |
| Mississippi St | 21 | +30000 | 100%* | 85% | 45% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | CC |
| Rutgers | 23 | None | 100%* | 82% | 70% | 58% | 57% | 57%* | 57% | 29% | 17% | 9% |
| Baylor | 25 | +30000 | 20% | 20%* | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Minnesota | N/A | None | 30% | 30%* | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | CC |
| Iowa St | RV | None | 43% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Texas Tech | RV | None | 57% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Cincinnati | RV | +50000 | 32% | 27% | 27% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Northwestern | RV | None | 80% | 39% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 5%* | 1% | 0% | 0% | CC |
