There’s been a lot of support for our NFL “Square Report,” and folks have asked why we don’t do the same thing for college football.
So, we’ll appeal to the masses.
Each week throughout the rest of this college football season, we’ll take a look at the three biggest public plays on the board and speculate what the public sees and why they’re betting a particular side.
We’ll also be tracking these plays to see how Joe Public fares in betting college football.
Last Week: N/A
Season: 0-0 ATS
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KANSAS @ KANSAS STATE, NOON ET
Open: Kansas State -24
Current: Kansas State -25
Public Betting %: 84% on Kansas State
What they see: Not only does Bill Snyder own this “rivalry,” but the seventh-ranked Wildcats are by far the better team on paper than the Big 12 bottom-feeding Jayhawks.
Analysis: This line seems high, but so has every other KU-K-State line during Snyder’s long tenure. From a post earlier this week:
Snyder has absolutely crushed the Jayhawks since arriving in Manhattan in 1989. Overall, he’s 16-4 both straight up and against the spread vs. KU, and that includes a 14-1 mark in both categories since his program really started to take form in 1994. Snyder covers by an average of 19.1 points per game.
What makes this even more impressive is it’s not aided by the fact that Kansas State naturally has a superior program. Ron Prince went 0-3 straight up and against the spread against the Jayhawks in his three seasons from 2006-08 before Snyder took over the job for a second time in 2009. Margin of victory the last two years? 118-28.
Proceed carefully if you think the value is on Kansas.
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MISSISSIPPI STATE @ KENTUCKY, 12:20 P.M. ET
Open: Mississippi State -10.5
Current: Mississippi State -9.5
Public Betting %: 83% on Mississippi State
What they see: It’s Kentucky in SEC play. You don’t really need to “see” much more than that.
Analysis: The Wildcats are 1-4 straight up and against the spread, the only win coming at home against Kent State in Week 2.
Last week, they led South Carolina 17-7 at halftime and still couldn’t manage to cover as 20-point home underdogs, getting outscored 31-0 after the break to fall 38-17.
Could Mississippi State possibly get caught looking ahead, though? The Bulldogs face Tennessee at home next weekend in a game that could help them jump up the SEC pecking order, so their full attention might not be on this week’s game.
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TULANE @ UL-LAFAYETTE, 5 P.M. ET
Open: UL-Lafayette -23
Current: UL-Lafayette -28
Public Betting %: 86% on UL-Lafayette
What they see: As one respected BTB Forum member put it, “Tulane is soooo bad.”
Analysis: The Green Wave are 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread, and they’re second-to-last in the FBS at only 8 points per game in losses to Rutgers, Tulsa, Ole Miss and Louisiana-Monroe.
This week, the quarterback situation is a complete mess, with all three passers on the roster banged up.
Oh, and it’s also Louisiana-Lafayette’s (3-1 SU and ATS) homecoming. Just not a good situation for Tulane. It could be a long, long season.