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PrintEvery Friday throughout the college football season, we’ll take a look at some of the week’s biggest or most interesting line moves and provide some commentary, thoughts and analysis.
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OREGON STATE @ UCLA
Opened: UCLA -11.5
Current: UCLA -8.5
Commentary: We pegged Oregon State as our “sleeper team” entering the season, and the early return on investment has been strong so far. The Beavers upset Wisconsin in the season opener, a dominating win that has turned skeptics into believers and believers into worshippers. OK, it’s only one win, but the sense here is that the Beavers remain an undervalued team and are up against a UCLA team that might be slightly overvalued. The Bruins opened as a double-digit favorite and three full points above our projected line. We like the value on Oregon State at anything above a touchdown.
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COLORADO @ WASHINGTON STATE
Opened: Washington State -17.5
Current: Washington State -20
Commentary: We’ve long believed that Jon Embree is the worst coach in college football, and after three embarrassing losses—including a home defeat to FCS Sacramento State—the evidence is piling up. Colorado is 0-3 and has been outscored 121-59. Against Fresno State last week, a 69-14 loss, the Buffaloes trailed by 48 points at halftime. Washington State is worse than expected but is still dangerous through the air, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them win by four touchdowns against a Buffs team that appears on the verge of giving up on their coach. (The alumni already have.)
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KENTUCKY @ FLORIDA
Opened: Florida -25.5
Current: Florida -22.5
Commentary: This line move isn’t all that surprising. Florida is coming off back-to-back upset road victories at Texas A&M and Tennessee, and now returns home to play a Kentucky team it has beaten 25 straight times. The Gators have a bye next week, followed by a showdown with No. 2 LSU. Sharp bettors are hoping the Gators get caught napping and are instead looking ahead to the game against the Tigers. Oppositely, the Wildcats are coming off an embarrassing home loss to Western Kentucky and now have their SEC opener. It represents a “fresh start” for Kentucky before the inevitable last-place East Division finish.
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RUTGERS AT ARKANSAS
Opened: Arkansas pick ‘em
Current: Arkansas -9
Commentary: Tyler Wilson. Tyler Wilson. Tyler Wilson. He will play, officially, and the Razorbacks are hoping to regroup in a big way against an opponent from an inferior conference. Arkansas is a deserving favorite, but we don’t think a line move past a touchdown is warranted. Rutgers is our No. 2 Big East team and we think they’re comparable to Louisville. They are efficient on offense and have one of the best defenses in the country, led by an elite secondary. Rutgers has had nine days to prepare (following a Thursday game) and should keep things close. We think they’re capable of pulling off the upset.
