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PrintEvery Friday throughout the college football season, we’ll take a look at some of the week’s biggest or most interesting line moves and provide some commentary, thoughts and analysis.
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ARKANSAS @ TEXAS A&M
Opened: Texas A&M -11
Current: Texas A&M -14.5
Commentary: Arkansas can forget this season. It’s kicked. Done. Finished. Over. The Razorbacks are already looking ahead to next year, and the coaching search certainly won’t include John L. Smith, whose team has lost three straight and could be in jeopardy of missing a bowl game. Arkansas was listed as a 2.5-point favorite when Golden Nugget released its Games of the Year lines in June, but now finds itself as a 14.5-point underdog. So, with a roster that’s gone largely unchanged, we’ve now seen a 17-point swing in the point spread. Our pick? Believe it or not, we’d take the Hogs here. This seems like an overreaction and catching two-TD’s against a still unproven A&M team seems like a steal.
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TEXAS @ OKLAHOMA STATE
Opened: Oklahoma State -2
Current: Texas -2.5
Commentary: It’s been three weeks since Oklahoma State got exposed by Arizona, and while the Cowboys are trying to forget the outing—a miserable 59-38 road loss—it’s a safe bet that wiseguys haven’t. The Cowboys have looked tremendous in games against Savannah State and Louisiana, but who wouldn’t? The real question is how they’ll fare against a Texas team that’s been dominant in Stillwater, winning six straight matchups since 1997. The Longhorns have improved offensively, but their opponents have been Wyoming, New Mexico and Ole Miss. In other words: The jury is still out. We agree with the move, but both teams are coming off byes and it’s probably best to stay away.
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ARIZONA STATE @ CALIFORNIA
Opened: California -2
Current: Arizona State -1
Commentary: California’s football program has gotten stale under Jeff Tedford, and this week they’ll be up against an Arizona State team that’s received an infusion of energy since hiring Todd Graham in the offseason. Still, we’re far from sold on the Sun Devils, who have played three straight backup quarterbacks and are now traveling to Berkeley, where they haven’t won in 15 years. Oppositely, California will be desperate to avoid a 1-4 start (which would be its worst under Tedford) against a team it actually has a chance of beating. The Bears have played back-to-back road games against Ohio State and USC, and this game represents a great opportunity to get back on track. While the line has moved toward Arizona State, we actually have a strong lean toward the Bears in this one.
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MINNESOTA @ IOWA
Opened: Iowa -5.5
Current: Iowa -7.5
Commentary: New rule: Anytime Iowa is listed as a favorite of a touchdown or more against a competent opponent, bet the opposite side. These Hawkeyes stink, and while we aren’t thrilled about this spot (they’re coming off a devastating home loss to Central Michigan), the line value here is too good to pass up. Minnesota is 4-0 and has beaten two pedestrian opponents, Western Michigan and Syracuse, and now they’re up against a Hawkeyes team whose power rating has really slipped since the preseason. The Gophers are improved on both sides of the ball (we actually think Max Shortell is an upgrade at QB), and they should be able to stay within the number.
