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PrintEvery Friday throughout the college football season, we’ll take a look at the week’s biggest or most interesting line moves and provide some commentary, thoughts and analysis.
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WASHINGTON STATE @ UNLV
Opened: Washington State -10.5
Current: Washington State -8
Commentary: The Mike Leach Era has gotten off to a slow start, and nobody has much confidence in Washington State after a pair of subpar efforts. The Cougars got blown out in their season opener at BYU and then followed it up with an underwhelming outing against FCS Eastern Washington, a narrow 24-20 victory. Still, the Cougars are a tempting play at 8 and would be extremely appealing if the line fell to 7. UNLV is coming off a 17-14 home loss against Northern Arizona and might be on the verge of quitting on Bobby Hauck, who is 4-23 overall since arriving in Las Vegas in 2010.
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ALABAMA @ ARKANSAS
Opened: Alabama -15.5
Current: Alabama -20
Commentary: This line move has everything to do with Tyler Wilson’s status, and it’s now being reported that the senior quarterback will miss Saturday’s game after suffering a head injury in last week’s loss to UL-Monroe. Don’t be surprised if this line climbs above three touchdowns by kickoff. Worth noting: Alabama was listed as a 6.5-point favorite in Golden Nugget’s Games of the Year lines released back in early June.
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WAKE FOREST @ FLORIDA STATE
Opened: Florida State -25
Current: Florida State -28
Commentary: Wake Forest is coming off a big victory over North Carolina and Florida State is desperate to play a “real” team, one that isn’t getting mauled so bad that the game requires the institution of a running clock. The Seminoles have played Murray State and Savannah State and have won by a combined score of 124-3. Needless to say, they’re ready to prove themselves and demonstrate why some pundits are calling them the best team in the country. The line has moved to four touchdowns, which actually seems a bit high. Wake Forest has had Florida State’s number in recent years, winning three of the last five meetings—including last year’s 35-30 victory as 10-point underdogs. It’s a stay-away game but a small lean to Wake.
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FLORIDA @ TENNESSEE
Opened: Tennessee pk
Current: Tennessee -3
Commentary: We’ll defer to BTB podcast host Matt Lindeman, who is obsessed with the Vols in this spot: “I look at this game and it really, really sets up well for Tennessee. It’s a great spot. Florida is coming off a come-from-behind win at A&M. They came in, lots of people doubting them, hanging billboards. They went in and pulled out a close game. Now they have a quick turnaround, on the road again, and they’ll play a strong Tennessee team. The Vols have lost seven straight against Florida, and they finally have a team that can contend. Strong on both sides of the ball. Florida has question marks offensively and hasn’t looked great defensively. Going back to Knoxville here, I see Tennessee coming out on top and breaking the long losing streak.”
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ARIZONA STATE @ MISSOURI
Opened: Missouri -8.5
Current: Missouri -6
Commentary: Call us crazy, but we love the value on Missouri here despite the line moving against them. In our projected point spreads, we listed the Tigers as a 10-point favorite. Arizona State looked strong in its first two games, but played an FCS school and an Illinois team missing its starting quarterback. Missouri is a tough place to play, and the Tigers are coming off a brutal home loss to Georgia. We’re comfortable laying six here with the team that has the better coach, better QB and better all-around roster. [Update: Line just crashed. Missouri now a 3.5 or 4-point favorite at most books. Questions over James Franklin's status.]
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BOWLING GREEN @ TOLEDO
Opened: Toledo -6.5
Current: Toledo -3.5
Commentary: This is the third straight week the line has moved in Bowling Green’s direction, so it’s clearly a team that sharps like. Then again, Toledo hasn’t exactly been a “play-on” team, either. The Rockets escaped with a road victory against Wyoming last week in a tough spot (following a loss at Arizona), and now will play their home opener in a venue that’s treated them awfully well through the years. They’re 46-33 ATS the last 10 years in conference games and are 52-30 straight up. We don’t have much of a read on this one and will stay away.
