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PrintThere are only five teams left in college football that are 4-0 against the spread, and none of them are what you’d call “heavyweights.”
The list includes schools from the MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, WAC and a projected Big Ten bottom-feeder.
Who’s for real, and who’s bound to ultimately disappoint?
Let’s take a look in this week’s edition of college football “Buy or Sell.”
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BALL STATE (MAC)
Straight Up: 3-1
Against the Spread: 4-0
Covering By: 6.5 points per game
Previous Opponents: Eastern Michigan (W), at Clemson (L), at Indiana (W), South Florida (W)
This Week: at Kent State (pick ‘em)
Are the Cardinals for real? Ball State has two outright wins as underdogs, the last coming in impressive fashion at home against South Florida.
In that game, the Cardinals were outgained by more than 100 yards and had the benefit of a 2-0 turnover edge and a last-minute touchdown pass to win 31-27. This team actually runs (174) more than it passes (151)—a rarity in today’s college football environment—led by Jahwan Edwards’ 6.3 yards per carry and five scores.
Ball State has given up more than 500 yards in three straight games and ranks 93rd nationally in opponent yards per play (6.2), so that’ll have to change if the Cardinals hope to sneak past Kent State, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan as MAC play picks up.
Buy or Sell? Sell.
FRESNO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
Straight Up: 2-2
Against the Spread: 4-0
Covering By: 17 points per game
Previous Opponents: Weber State (W), at Oregon (L), Colorado (W), at Tulsa (L)
This Week: vs. San Diego State (-7.5)
Are the Bulldogs for real? Fresno State could very easily be 3-1 if not for a 27-26 loss at Tulsa last weekend. The Bulldogs returned two picks for touchdowns (which won’t happen again), but they also outgained the Golden Hurricane.
In Mountain West play, Fresno State will have an advantage over every team it plays at the most important position on the field. Quarterback Derek Carr is an NFL prospect who’s passed for more than 1,000 yards already and has nine TDs to only one interception.
Carr and senior running back Robbie Rouse (6.1 yards per attempt, 6 TDs) give the Bulldogs an edge at the skill positions, but they’re much weaker along both lines. Still, the offense should be enough to make this team a threat in the Mountain West.
Buy or Sell? Buy.
NORTHWESTERN (BIG TEN)
Straight Up: 4-0
Against the Spread: 4-0
Covering By: 5.9 points per game
Previous Opponents: at Syracuse (W), Vanderbilt (W), Boston College (W), South Dakota (W)
This Week: vs. Indiana (-11.5)
Are the Wildcats for real? Going back to last year, Northwestern has now won eight of its past nine regular-season games and is 7-2 ATS during that span. Are we missing something in Evanston?
The Wildcats are fortunate in that they get Indiana, Penn State and Minnesota to open Big Ten play, so the schedule doesn’t really pick up until the back half. Four of Northwestern’s conference opponents have a bye week before facing the Wildcats, though, leading coach Pat Fitzgerald to say, “”Hopefully at the end of the run, we’ll be able to say it was not an advantage.”
Northwestern is only gaining 4.8 yards per play (93rd nationally) and has actually been outgained this season, so don’t expect the team’s recent run of good fortune to continue.
Buy or Sell? Sell.
SAN JOSE STATE (WAC)
Straight Up: 3-1
Against the Spread: 4-0
Covering By: 12.4 points per game
Previous Opponents: at Stanford (L), UC-Davis (W), Colorado State (W), at San Diego State (W)
This Week: at Navy (-2.5)
Are the Spartans for real? The betting market seems to think so. After San Jose State’s near-upset of unbeaten Stanford in the season opener, the line has moved in its direction three straight times, including last week’s road game against San Diego State.
Mike MacIntyre, now in his third year, is the best coach you’ve never heard of and will land a high-level job within the next two years. He has upgraded the Spartans’ talent level and has helped the program become a darkhorse candidate to win the wide-open WAC just two years after it was a national laughingstock (1-12 in 2010).
As you might expect, San Jose State lives in obscurity and still remains undervalued. However, it won’t last long, and it might only be worth backing them for a couple more weeks.
Buy or Sell? Buy.
WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
Straight Up: 3-1
Against the Spread: 4-0
Covering By: 10.3 points per game
Previous Opponents: Austin Peay (W), at Alabama (L), at Kentucky (W), Southern Miss (W)
This Week: at Arkansas State (-2.5)
Are the Hilltoppers for real? Willie Taggart, a former assistant under Jim Harbaugh at Stanford, has brought instant credibility to a Western Kentucky program that didn’t have a strong foundation prior to his arrival.
The Hilltoppers joined the FBS in 2008 and went 2-10 and 0-12 in their first two years before hiring Taggart, who had no previous head coaching experience. Taggart went 2-10 in his first year and 7-5 last year.
Western Kentucky has covered the spread by an average of 10.3 points per game and has won 13 straight ATS dating back to last season, including six outright wins as an underdog. Even now, they don’t seem to be getting the respect they deserve and they’ll be a “play on” team for the foreseeable future.
Buy or Sell? Buy.
