Each week, BTB releases its college football point spread projections for all games involving FBS teams. These projections also include the 20 or so ‘extra’ games that aren’t released until midweek. Very few offshore sportsbooks post ‘extra games,’ but 5Dimes is one of them that does regularly throughout the season.
Many of these games are extremely one-sided and it’s difficult to get good information on them. For instance, try finding credible, worthwhile information on Virginia Military Institute.
I think most oddsmakers would admit that the lines they put out for these extra games are very ‘vanilla,’ that is, they don’t put a lot of time and effort into them. That’s why the games usually have limits and -120 juice attached to them, at least when they’re initially posted.
I have always spent time trying to handicap and project these games, as I think a little extra effort can gain you an edge, particularly on games that have 35, 40 or even 46 point spreads, which is what Wisconsin is currently favored over South Dakota.
For the purposes of this experiment, any game that has a point spread difference of 7 or more points relative to my projections becomes a “play.” I’ll track my “extra games” record throughout the season and we’ll find out if this can be profitable. Last week, the picks went 5-1, as Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Baylor and Southern Miss all covered the spread.
Last week: 5-1 (83%)
YTD: 8-2 (80%)
This week’s plays: Boston College -9.5, Portland State +46, VMI +15, Minnesota -10, Houston -37, Central Arkansas +18.5.
* * *
South Dakota @ Wisconsin
BTB line projection: Wisconsin -46.5
5Dimes: Wisconsin -46
Massachusetts @ Boston College
BTB line projection: Boston College -17.5
5Dimes: Boston College -9.5
Portland State @ TCU
BTB line projection: TCU -38.5
5Dimes: TCU -46
VMI @ Akron
BTB line projection: Akron -6
5Dimes: Akron -15
Tennessee State @ Air Force
BTB line projection: Air Force -35.5
5Dimes: Air Force -42
South Alabama @ Kent State
BTB line projection: Kent State -10
5Dimes: Kent State -9.5
Cal Poly @ Northern Illinois
BTB line projection: Northern Illinois -24.5
5Dimes: Northern Illinois -21
Sam Houston State @ New Mexico
BTB line projection: New Mexico -11.5
5Dimes: Sam Houston State -6
North Dakota State @ Minnesota
BTB line projection: Minnesota -23.5
5Dimes: Minnesota -10
Georgia State @ Houston
BTB line projection: Houston -45
5Dimes: Houston -37
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas State
BTB line projection: Arkansas State -10
5Dimes: Arkansas State -18.5
Southern Utah @ UNLV
BTB line projection: UNLV -12.5
5Dimes: UNLV -11.5