Mailbag

NCAA Tourney: Has betting exclusively on ‘unders’ in Final Four games been a profitable approach?

April 6, 2013

Are totals inflated during the Final weekend of the NCAA Tournament?

In this edition of the mailbag, a reader suggests that there might be a trend with betting unders in the Final Four. However, while unders have come in more frequently than overs, this is hardly an angle worth betting blindly.

Mailbag

‘When top-ranked teams lose in college hoops, how do they fare against the spread in the next game?’

January 22, 2013

Previously top-ranked Louisville suffered its first loss of the season on Saturday, a 70-68 home defeat to Syracuse. Now, the Cardinals must recover quickly and take on Villanova as 12-point road favorites.

Do No. 1 teams carry any ATS value after suffering a loss? That’s a reader’s question in the latest BTB Mailbag.

Mailbag

‘I feel like Duke always crushes teams after a loss, but how is Coach K’s ATS record in that situation?’

January 17, 2013

The Duke Blue Devils suffered their first loss of the season on Saturday at NC State, and now a Duke fan is looking to bet them as big home favorites tonight against Georgia Tech.

Based on Coach K’s ATS history after a loss, however, that might not be a great idea.

Mailbag

‘How often have No. 1 seeds in NFL playoffs been favored by less than a field goal in divisional round?’

January 9, 2013

The Atlanta Falcons have been dominant at home over the past few years, and yet they’re still only 2.5-point favorites over the blazing-hot Seahawks in the NFC divisional round this weekend.

In the latest edition of the BTB Mailbag, a reader wonders how often top seeds in the NFL playoffs have been this small of favorites at home. Answer: We don’t see this situation very often at all, but the top seeds have performed horribly when it’s happened before.

Mailbag

In NFL playoffs, how do teams coming off bye week fare against Wild Card winners against the spread?

January 7, 2013

In the latest edition of the BTB mailbag, a reader asks how NFL playoff teams coming off a bye week perform in their divisional-round games.

We provide the answer, and also share an underdog pick that we like this week.

Bowl Season Mailbag

‘In Big Ten vs. SEC bowl matchups, is there ATS value in taking teams from the weaker conference?’

December 19, 2012

Big Ten teams are generally outmatched against the SEC these days, but the point spread is the great equalizer in college football.

In the latest edition of the BTB Mailbag, a reader wonders if there’s any value in taking Big Ten teams against the spread when they’re matched up with the SEC in bowl games. Read on for the results.

Bowl Season Mailbag

Is the ‘Heisman Curse’ real? Has it been wise to fade Heisman Trophy winners in bowl games?

December 10, 2012

Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy on Saturday, and now he’ll be expected to deliver for Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma. The Aggies are 4.5-point favorites against the Sooners, but could they be in trouble?

In the latest BTB Mailbag, we discover that Heisman winners haven’t performed well in bowl games over the last few decades, and their teams haven’t been particularly good at covering the spread, either.

Mailbag

Bowl games: ‘I assume 10+ point favorites don’t fare well in bowls,’ but does data prove it?

December 3, 2012

As two-touchdown favorites over Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl, Florida State is one of six teams favored by 10 or more in this bowl season.

In the latest edition of the BTB Mailbag, a reader wonders if double-digit underdogs have had ATS success in bowl games?

NFL Mailbag

Mailbag: ‘I’m looking for a reason to bet the Chiefs at home against Denver; Am I stupid?’

November 23, 2012

This might be our favorite edition of the BTB Mailbag ever.

A reader is “looking for any reason” he can to bet the Chiefs at home against the Broncos this weekend, and we give him our answer. (Hint: Double-digit home underdogs actually do very well against the spread historically.)

Mailbag

NFL teams before a bye week: Fading them is profitable this year, but what about all time?

October 24, 2012

In the latest edition of the BTB mailbag, a reader notes that NFL teams have struggled straight up and against the spread the week before a bye so far in the 2012 season.

Does the trend hold up over the last several years?

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Mailbag

NCAA Tourney: Has betting exclusively on ‘unders’ in Final Four games been a profitable approach?

‘When top-ranked teams lose in college hoops, how do they fare against the spread in the next game?’

‘I feel like Duke always crushes teams after a loss, but how is Coach K’s ATS record in that situation?’

‘How often have No. 1 seeds in NFL playoffs been favored by less than a field goal in divisional round?’

In NFL playoffs, how do teams coming off bye week fare against Wild Card winners against the spread?

‘In Big Ten vs. SEC bowl matchups, is there ATS value in taking teams from the weaker conference?’

Is the ‘Heisman Curse’ real? Has it been wise to fade Heisman Trophy winners in bowl games?

Bowl games: ‘I assume 10+ point favorites don’t fare well in bowls,’ but does data prove it?

Mailbag: ‘I’m looking for a reason to bet the Chiefs at home against Denver; Am I stupid?’

NFL teams before a bye week: Fading them is profitable this year, but what about all time?

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